Fears of Middle East War Grow After Hamas Leader's Killing

Smoke billows on the village of Meiss El-Jabal, along Lebanon's southern border with northern Israel following Israeli bombardment on December 20, 2023, with the Israeli Manara Kibbutz seen on the background, amid increasing cross-border tensions as fighting continues with Hamas militants in the southern Gaza Strip. (Photo by AFP)
Smoke billows on the village of Meiss El-Jabal, along Lebanon's southern border with northern Israel following Israeli bombardment on December 20, 2023, with the Israeli Manara Kibbutz seen on the background, amid increasing cross-border tensions as fighting continues with Hamas militants in the southern Gaza Strip. (Photo by AFP)
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Fears of Middle East War Grow After Hamas Leader's Killing

Smoke billows on the village of Meiss El-Jabal, along Lebanon's southern border with northern Israel following Israeli bombardment on December 20, 2023, with the Israeli Manara Kibbutz seen on the background, amid increasing cross-border tensions as fighting continues with Hamas militants in the southern Gaza Strip. (Photo by AFP)
Smoke billows on the village of Meiss El-Jabal, along Lebanon's southern border with northern Israel following Israeli bombardment on December 20, 2023, with the Israeli Manara Kibbutz seen on the background, amid increasing cross-border tensions as fighting continues with Hamas militants in the southern Gaza Strip. (Photo by AFP)

Fears of a regional Middle East war grew on Saturday after the assassination of Hamas's political leader, blamed on Israel, triggered vows of vengeance from Iran-backed Middle East groups.

The United States said it would move additional warships and fighter jets to the region as the Iran-aligned "Axis of Resistance" readied its response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh.

The groups from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria have already been drawn into the nearly 10-month war in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas, according to AFP.

Iran on Saturday said it expects one of those groups, Lebanon's Hezbollah, to hit deeper inside Israel and to no longer be confined to military targets.

With such talk growing, the Pentagon said it was bolstering its military presence in the Middle East to protect US personnel and defend Israel.

An aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln will replace one helmed by the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the region, the Pentagon said.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also ordered additional ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers to the Middle East and areas under United States European Command, as well as a new fighter squadron to the Middle East.

On Friday, thousands of people in Qatar attended funeral prayers for Haniyeh, who was buried north of the capital Doha two days after his death.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Saturday said he was killed by a "short-range projectile" fired "from outside the accommodation area" where he was staying.

Haniyeh had been in Iran to attend the swearing-in of President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday.

Israel, accused by Hamas, Iran and others of the attack, has not directly commented on it.
The killing of the Qatar-based Haniyeh is among a series of tit-for-tat attacks since April that had already heightened fears of a regional conflagration.

His death came hours after Israel struck south Beirut, killing the Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.

Haniyeh's deputy was killed in south Beirut early this year in a strike which a US defence official said Israel carried out.

In another high-profile killing, Israel's army on Thursday confirmed that an air strike in July killed Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif in Gaza.

Israel "delivered crushing blows to all our enemies", said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week.

"The risk that the situation on the ground could deteriorate rapidly is rising," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a statement.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with his visiting British counterpart John Healey on Friday and called for an international coalition to support "Israel's defense against Iran and its proxies", Gallant's office said.

Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas in retaliation for its October 7 attack.

Hamas officials but also some analysts, and protesters in Israel, have accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war.

Far-right members crucial to Netanyahu's ruling coalition oppose any truce.

The war in Gaza has caused widespread destruction and displaced almost the entire population of the territory where, the UN said on Friday, public health conditions "continue to deteriorate."

It said nearly 40,000 cases of Hepatitis A, spread by contaminated food and water, have been reported since the war began.

Since October Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily fire with Israeli forces, saying it is targeting military positions over the border in support of Hamas.

The strike on Shukr changed the calculus, Iran's mission to the United Nations said on Saturday.

"We expect... Hezbollah to choose more targets and (strike) deeper in its response," said the mission, quoted by Iran's official IRNA news agency.

"Secondly, that it will not limit its response to military targets."

A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, said a Hezbollah member was killed in an "Israeli drone" strike on a vehicle in south Lebanon on Saturday.

Late on Friday, a source close to Hezbollah said Israel carried out strikes on a convoy of trucks entering Lebanon from Syria.



Israeli Strike on Beirut Shatters Diplomatic Understandings, Sources Say

Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
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Israeli Strike on Beirut Shatters Diplomatic Understandings, Sources Say

Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)

Lebanon's Hezbollah did not clear its sensitive sites or evacuate top officials in Beirut's suburbs before this week's attack that killed a top commander because it thought US-led diplomacy would keep Israel from striking the area, security sources close to the group and diplomats said.

Hezbollah's impression was that Israel would not hit the southern suburbs, or Dahiyeh, a heartland of support for the Shiite group, as it believed Israeli forces would adhere to unofficial red lines both sides have generally observed in the conflict that has escalated during the Gaza War, they said.

This assessment was relayed to Reuters by eight diplomats with knowledge of recent mediation efforts led by Washington and including France and the United Nations, as well as three security sources close to Hezbollah. They all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic.

That understanding was shattered on Tuesday when an Israeli strike on Beirut's Dahiyeh killed Hezbollah's top military commander, an Iranian military adviser and five civilians. Lebanese officials and Hezbollah now question whether diplomatic assurances had been relayed to the group accurately.

"We were not expecting them to hit Beirut and they hit Beirut," Lebanon's caretaker foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib told Reuters.

Coupled with the killing in Tehran hours later of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Palestinian armed group Hamas, it has risked sending the entire region into a violent tailspin.

Tensions began spiraling after a deadly strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27 which Israel blamed on Hezbollah, vowing retaliation. The group denied any involvement.

Diplomats rushed to contain the fallout by urging Israel not to strike Dahiyeh as part of its response, with US envoy Amos Hochstein specifically passing on those messages, several diplomats and a Lebanese official with direct knowledge of mediation efforts told Reuters.

A Hezbollah official said mediators had informed them of such efforts. The Lebanese official and three diplomats involved in the messaging said Israel had not made any commitments.

'DIPLOMACY HAS FAILED'

Still, Hezbollah's posture signaled its comfort: in the days leading up to the strike, top officials from the group were seen moving around Dahiyeh.

Hezbollah had cleared out some of its key sites in south and east Lebanon in anticipation of possible strikes, but did not take similar measures in Beirut, two security sources told Reuters. Hezbollah figures living near the targeted building were rushed out in a panic after it was hit, the sources said.

A regional diplomat said that meant Israel had no major Hezbollah targets to hit in south or east Lebanon. Two European diplomats said Hezbollah had not taken protective measures in Beirut and "were not cautious".

Several of the diplomats, as well as a Western envoy, said they had understood Dahiyeh would be spared. "There was a clear message sent" that Israel would spare big cities including Beirut, a diplomat said.

Instead, they said, Israel shunned efforts to constrain its response. "Israelis do not listen to a word that we tell them. They are following their plan and don't listen to us," one of the European diplomats said.

The Western envoy and an Iranian official said Israel had "crossed red lines" by striking Dahiyeh. "Diplomacy has failed," the envoy told Reuters, saying the ability of countries, even the United States, to influence Israel was limited.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech on Thursday marking the funeral of the slain commander Fuad Shukr, said Israel "does not know to what extent it has crossed the red lines" and that unnamed countries had asked the group not to respond to the strike - a request he rejected.

MISCALCULATION

Already, international efforts to rein in Israel's military blitz against the Gaza Strip - a response to Hamas' cross-border attack into Israel on Oct. 7 - have had limited success.

The United States has urged Israel to unblock aid deliveries into Gaza, avoid civilian casualties and refrain from launching a large-scale military offensive in Rafah, but its diplomatic efforts have yielded few results.

"The Israelis feel they are beset from all angles, politically, militarily, and it is a bit of a risky situation," a Western diplomat told Reuters.

As a result, Israel had shifted the war's rules of engagement, carrying out more audacious strikes against its Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian foes, diplomats and analysts in the region said.

Hezbollah had "misread" Israel's mindset and thought it had done enough to deter Israel from bold strikes in Lebanon, several diplomats working on the issue and the Lebanese official said.

"Hamas, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have all miscalculated since Oct. 7 and mis-assessed each other," the Western envoy said.