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Lebanon’s Displaced Fear a Bleak Future

Flame and smoke rise after flare fell in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, August 9, 2024. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Flame and smoke rise after flare fell in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, August 9, 2024. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Lebanon’s Displaced Fear a Bleak Future

Flame and smoke rise after flare fell in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, August 9, 2024. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Flame and smoke rise after flare fell in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, August 9, 2024. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Displaced in south Lebanon five times, Kamel Mroue and his wife Mariam are anxious about their next move as they follow the news of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, fearing border hostilities will turn into all-out war.

The parents of three children, who live abroad, have been back and fourth between their village of Yohmor, just kilometers away from the frontier, and friends elsewhere around Lebanon.

“The future is dim,” said Mroue, an academic, Reuters reported.

The conflict has displaced more than 100,000 people in southern Lebanon, according to the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix.

Israel and the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah have been trading fire since the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 and ignited the war in Gaza, which shows no signs of easing.

Now in its tenth month, the conflict has spread to Lebanon where Israel has inflicted devastation in previous conflicts with Hezbollah.

- PAST DEVASTATION

The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers. Israeli bombardment pounded Hezbollah-controlled south Lebanon and destroyed wide areas of its stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Most of the fighting over the last 10 months has erupted on the border between Israel and Lebanon. Israel has ratcheted up tensions with assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures.

Hezbollah's response to Israeli attacks will be strong and effective, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the powerful Lebanese militant group, said earlier this month.

He was speaking in an address marking the one-week memorial of the group's top military commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Iran and Hezbollah have also threatened to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, widely blamed on Israel. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.

Lebanon's state, hollowed out by a five-year economic crisis left to fester by ruling elites, had struggled to provide basic services even before the current conflict began. The economic crisis and border conflict have taken a heavy toll. “It all affects you - your psychological state is affected to the point that I have started taking medicine to calm my nerves,” said Mariam.

While Israel houses its displaced in government-funded accommodation, Lebanon relies on ill-equipped public schools or informal arrangements, such as staying with family or friends.

Wafaa Youssef Al-Darwish sought refuge with family. Originally from the village of Dhraya near the Israeli border, she fled to stay with her sister in Tyre, a southern city that has itself been targeted by air strikes during the conflict.

“We were at our village, working normally and a war was imposed on us,” said Darwish, who used to work in agriculture, producing and selling cans of olive oil. The war deprived Lebanese of homes, neighbourhoods, and sustenance, she explained. “It's a great tragedy."

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Key Players in Syria’s Long-Running Civil War, Reignited by Shock Opposition Offensive

A Syrian flag lies on the ground as opposition fighters stand on the tarmac of the Aleppo international airport, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.(AP)
A Syrian flag lies on the ground as opposition fighters stand on the tarmac of the Aleppo international airport, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.(AP)
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Key Players in Syria’s Long-Running Civil War, Reignited by Shock Opposition Offensive

A Syrian flag lies on the ground as opposition fighters stand on the tarmac of the Aleppo international airport, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.(AP)
A Syrian flag lies on the ground as opposition fighters stand on the tarmac of the Aleppo international airport, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.(AP)

Syria’s long civil war has reclaimed global attention after opposition factions seized most of its largest city and dozens of nearby towns and villages.

The stunning advance on Aleppo by opposition forces came as several key players in the conflict have been distracted or weakened, triggering the heaviest clashes since a 2020 ceasefire brought relative calm to the country’s north.

Russian and Syrian forces have carried out dozens of airstrikes to try to limit the factions’ advances, inflicting heavy casualties.

Syria's civil war started in 2011 after a peaceful uprising against President Bashar Assad's rule. Five foreign powers have a military presence in the country including the US, Russia and Iran. Forces opposed to Assad, along with US-backed fighters, control more than a third of the country. Israel holds the Golan Heights, which it seized in its 1967 war with its Arab neighbors.

Here’s a look at the key players:

Syrian pro-government forces, backed by Russia and Iran

Syrian government troops have long controlled a large part of the country, thanks to allied forces dispatched by Russia and Iran.

Assad's forces control most of the major population centers, including the capital Damascus and cities in Syria's center, south and east.

The Syrian government's capture of Aleppo in late 2016 was a turning point in the conflict and their loss of the city in recent days is a major setback.

Iran's military advisers and proxy fighters have played a critical role in shoring up Assad's forces throughout the war. But Lebanon's Hezbollah group, which is backed by Iran, has been weakened in its recent war with Israel and Iran has been distracted by the conflict. On Monday, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias deployed to Syria to back the government’s counteroffensive.

Russia's military has supported Assad from the Mediterranean coast, where it maintains its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union, and at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia province, which is home to hundreds of Russian troops. But much of its attention and resources have been focused on its war in Ukraine.

Opposition groups, backed mainly by Türkiye

Anti-government forces are led by the opposition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which long served as al-Qaeda's branch in Syria and is considered a terrorist group by the UN as well as countries including the US.

HTS controls much of northwest Syria and in 2017 set up a “salvation government” to run day-to-day affairs in the region. In recent years, its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has sought to remake the group's image, cutting ties with al-Qaeda, ditching hard-line officials and vowing to embrace pluralism and religious tolerance.

Other opposition groups include Noureddine el-Zinki, which was formerly backed by the US, before it joined the HTS-led alliance.

A Turkish-backed coalition of groups known as the Syrian National Army has attacked areas including the northern town of Tel Rifaat, controlled by the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Chinese fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party and Chechen fighters from the former Soviet Union have taken part in the battles in the country's northwest, according to Syrian opposition activists. Türkiye, which controls parts of northern Syria, will not say how many troops it has in the country.

Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the US

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed coalition of groups, controls large parts of eastern Syria.

The SDF has battled the ISIS group, capturing the last sliver of land held by the extremists in eastern Syria. About 900 American troops are stationed in Syria’s east to guard against a resurgence by the extremist group.

SDF forces still control several neighborhoods of Aleppo encircled by the opposition groups. Opposition activists have said their forces are willing to let those fighters cross to northeast Syria but it was not immediately clear if the Kurdish-led forces will do so.

Türkiye considers the principal Kurdish faction of the SDF to be linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it and allies regard as a terrorist group.