Is Sinwar Really Leading Hamas from Underground?

Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
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Is Sinwar Really Leading Hamas from Underground?

Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)

Hamas’ recent appointment of Yahya Sinwar as its leader has raised questions about his ability to guide the Palestinian movement during one of the most challenging times in its history.

Sinwar, who is Israel’s top target since the surprise attack on Oct. 7, faces immense pressure as Israeli forces search for him across the Gaza Strip.

Israel claims that Sinwar is hiding in tunnels in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza where he and his family live. But only a small group knows his location.

Since the war began, Sinwar has only appeared in a video released by the Israeli army, showing him in a tunnel a day after the Oct. 7 attack. Since then, he hasn’t been seen or heard from, raising doubts about whether he is still alive and leading Hamas.

Asharq Al-Awsat attempted to gather information about Sinwar’s situation, but the sensitive and complex conditions make even asking questions about him difficult.

Hamas sources in Gaza told Asharq Al-Awsat that no one within the movement knows exactly where Sinwar is, whether inside or outside Gaza. However, a small, trusted group is aware and serves as a link between him and the leadership when needed.

“These few individuals ensure his needs are met and facilitate his communication with the leadership inside and outside Gaza using complex methods,” the sources added.

It is believed that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, who is also a senior commander in Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades, is responsible for overseeing Sinwar’s safety and movements.

Some analysts think Sinwar’s brother, who is also a top target for Israel, could lead the brigades if Israel has indeed killed Mohammed Deif.

Despite being out of public view, Sinwar remains actively involved in Hamas. A source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar stays in regular contact with the movement's leadership through various means.

Since the war began, Sinwar has sent regular messages about operations and how to handle the challenges brought by the war. These instructions, often handwritten or typed and signed by Sinwar, are delivered secretly.

In addition to written messages, Sinwar has had direct phone contact with Hamas leaders during critical moments. A senior source confirmed that, after arranging secure conditions, Sinwar managed to make phone calls, though these took considerable effort to set up.

The source also revealed that Sinwar sent at least two written messages and one voice recording to intermediaries during key points in the negotiations. He has been closely involved in every stage of the talks, carefully reviewing proposals and discussing them with Hamas leaders.

Contrary to his reputation as a tough negotiator, Sinwar has supported flexibility in several stages of the negotiations, surprising even the intermediaries. He is determined to end the bloodshed and bring the war to a close.

Despite Sinwar’s active role in Hamas, Israel has been unable to locate him, according to sources from Asharq Al-Awsat.

Earlier this year, Israel conducted a three-month operation in Khan Younis, searching for Sinwar both above and below ground, but came up empty-handed. A second attack on the city also failed to find him.

Now, Israel is launching another major operation in Sinwar’s hometown, just days after he was appointed Hamas leader.

Israeli army chief Maj.Gen. Herzi Halevi stated that Sinwar’s appointment as Hamas leader won’t change anything but will speed up efforts to capture him.

Field sources said Israel’s operation in Khan Younis was aimed at punishing civilians for Sinwar’s selection, trying to force them into cooperating to reveal his location.

“They even dropped leaflets urging people to turn against him,” the sources noted.

However, “none of the civilians targeted by Israel know where Sinwar is, or whether he’s above or below ground.”



Lebanese on Edge amid Fears of All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War

A Middle East Airlines commercial aircraft flies near Beirut's southern suburbs as it approaches the airport runway on August 9, 2024. (AFP)
A Middle East Airlines commercial aircraft flies near Beirut's southern suburbs as it approaches the airport runway on August 9, 2024. (AFP)
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Lebanese on Edge amid Fears of All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War

A Middle East Airlines commercial aircraft flies near Beirut's southern suburbs as it approaches the airport runway on August 9, 2024. (AFP)
A Middle East Airlines commercial aircraft flies near Beirut's southern suburbs as it approaches the airport runway on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

Fears of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have left many Lebanese on edge, exacerbating mental health problems and reviving traumas of past conflicts in the war-weary country.

One 29-year-old woman, who lives near the southern city of Sidon, said she dreaded the thunderous, explosive boom of Israeli jets regularly breaking the sound barrier.

"I feel the house will fall down on top of me... Sometimes I freeze... or start crying," said the woman, a contract worker for a non-governmental organization.

She was 11 years old when Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah went to war in the summer of 2006, and said bombs fell near her house.

"Sometimes, unconsciously, you remember it," said the woman, requesting anonymity in a country where mental health issues are often stigmatized.

"These sounds give you flashbacks -- sometimes you feel you're back at that time," she said.

Since Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war, Hezbollah has traded near daily cross-border fire with the Israeli army in support of the Palestinian armed group, sending tensions soaring.

Lebanon has been on a knife's edge since a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last week killed Hezbollah's top military commander, just hours before the assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge, amid fears that retaliatory attacks could spiral into all-out war, with airlines suspending flights to Lebanon and countries imploring foreign nationals to leave.

- Panic attacks -

"I already had been suffering from anxiety and depression... but my mental health has deteriorated" since October, said the woman, who can no longer afford therapy because her work has slowed due to the hostilities.

"You feel afraid for the future", she said.

Before the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Lebanon endured a grueling 1975-1990 civil conflict in which Israel invaded the south and in 1982 besieged Beirut.

The current cross-border violence has killed more than 560 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures.

Laila Farhood, professor of psychiatry and mental health at the American University of Beirut, said "cumulative trauma" has left many Lebanese with stress, anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.

"Individuals transmit their anxieties to their children as cross-generational trauma," she told AFP.

"What is happening now triggers previous traumas," causing some people to have panic attacks, said Farhood, who specializes in war trauma and its impact on Lebanese civilians.

On Tuesday, Israeli jets broke the sound barrier over central Beirut, causing intense sonic booms that rattled windows and nerves, just two days after the anniversary of a catastrophic blast at Beirut's port in 2020.

"I had my first panic attack," said Charbel Chaaya, 23, who studies law in France and is living with his family near Beirut.

"I couldn't breathe, my legs felt numb... in that very first moment, you don't know what the sound is -- just like what happened on August 4," he said.

- 'Uncertainty' -

Layal Hamze from Embrace, a non-profit organization that runs a mental health center and suicide prevention hotline, said people in Lebanon now are "more susceptible to any sound".

"Baseline, the adrenaline is already high. It's a stressful situation," said Hamze, a clinical psychologist.

"It's not only the Beirut blast," Hamze added.

"The natural or automatic response" is to be frightened, she said, and while "maybe the older generation... are a bit more used to" such sounds, they could trigger "the collective trauma".

Some on social media have urged people to stop letting off fireworks -- a ubiquitous practice for celebrations -- while humorous skits making light of difficulties like flight cancellations have also circulated.

With coping mechanisms varying greatly, some people are "going partying", while others "are reaching out to the community more", which helps them feel they are not alone, Hamze said.

Dancer Andrea Fahed, 28, whose flat was damaged in the port blast, said she panicked when she heard this week's sonic booms.

She said she felt "lucky" to be a dancer, because with her community "we laugh together, we move together... you let go of a lot of things".

But she said the "uncertainty" was a constant struggle, and now leaves her windows open, fearing another blast could shatter everything.

"Anything can happen," Fahed said.

"If it's happening with that intensity in Gaza, why wouldn't it come here?"