A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?

International mediators are hoping to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim.
The new talks are set to begin Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been mulling an internationally-backed proposal for more than two months that would wind down the 10-month-long war and free the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, The Associated Press said.
The indirect talks have not advanced substantially during that time and sticking points remain. New terms put forward have complicated progress. And Hamas has yet to say outright whether it will participate in the new round.
Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza rages on, the hostages continue to languish in captivity, and fears of an all-out regional war involving Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have surged. The killing of Hamas’ top leader in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack further plunged the talks into uncertainty.
Here is a look at the proposed cease-fire deal and why talks have stalled:
What does the proposal look like? On May 31, US President Joe Biden detailed what he said was an Israeli cease-fire proposal, calling it “a road map" to a lasting truce and freedom for the hostages. It set off the most concentrated US push to bring about an end to the war, which was sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel.
The original proposal involved three phases. The first would last for six weeks and include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be able to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased.
The two sides would use that six-week period to negotiate an agreement on the second phase, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent.
The third phase would kick off a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the sticking points? Even though Biden threw his weight behind the proposal, it has not led to a breakthrough and the sides appear to have grown further apart in the weeks since.
Israel has been wary of the plan’s provision that the initial cease-fire would be extended as long as negotiations continued over the second phase. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations.
Hamas has appeared concerned that Israel would resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages were returned, a scenario reflected in some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments. Israel could also make demands during this stage of negotiations that were not part of the initial deal and would be unacceptable to Hamas — and then resume the war when Hamas refuses them.
Israel has added additional demands to the initial proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks. In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu's office denied this, calling the additional terms “essential clarifications.” It said Hamas has made 29 additions, without specifying which.
Egyptian officials said Israel seeks to maintain control of a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle in weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies.
Israel also wants to maintain forces along an east-west route that bisects Gaza so that they can weed out any militants crossing into the territory's north. Netanyahu's office has said Israel wants some way to ensure this, but it denied accusations that this was an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes.
The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu's office said Israel also wants veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be freed. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said.
Israel also wants a list of the hostages who are still alive — another condition rejected by Hamas, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
What else is complicating progress? The talks were further thrown into disarray last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination had “not helped” cease-fire efforts, and the talks were driven into a deep freeze.
That killing came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in a strike in Beirut. Both strikes drew threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, and the fear of an all-out regional war diverted international attention away from efforts to wind down the fighting in Gaza. The killings spurred a flurry of diplomatic activity and led the US to direct military assets to the region.
Both Netanyahu and Hamas' new top leader, Yahya Sinwar, have incentives to continue the war.
Netanyahu's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to topple the government if he agrees to a cease-fire, what could trigger elections that might oust him from power. Netanyahu has said he has the country's best interests in mind.
Hamas has gained from the international condemnation that Israel has faced because of the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh's killing has shown that Sinwar's own life could be on the line if he surfaces once the war ends.

Hamas’ recent appointment of Yahya Sinwar as its leader has raised questions about his ability to guide the Palestinian movement during one of the most challenging times in its history.

Sinwar, who is Israel’s top target since the surprise attack on Oct. 7, faces immense pressure as Israeli forces search for him across the Gaza Strip.

Israel claims that Sinwar is hiding in tunnels in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza where he and his family live. But only a small group knows his location.

Since the war began, Sinwar has only appeared in a video released by the Israeli army, showing him in a tunnel a day after the Oct. 7 attack. Since then, he hasn’t been seen or heard from, raising doubts about whether he is still alive and leading Hamas.

Asharq Al-Awsat attempted to gather information about Sinwar’s situation, but the sensitive and complex conditions make even asking questions about him difficult.

Hamas sources in Gaza told Asharq Al-Awsat that no one within the movement knows exactly where Sinwar is, whether inside or outside Gaza. However, a small, trusted group is aware and serves as a link between him and the leadership when needed.

“These few individuals ensure his needs are met and facilitate his communication with the leadership inside and outside Gaza using complex methods,” the sources added.

It is believed that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, who is also a senior commander in Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades, is responsible for overseeing Sinwar’s safety and movements.

Some analysts think Sinwar’s brother, who is also a top target for Israel, could lead the brigades if Israel has indeed killed Mohammed Deif.

Despite being out of public view, Sinwar remains actively involved in Hamas. A source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar stays in regular contact with the movement's leadership through various means.

Since the war began, Sinwar has sent regular messages about operations and how to handle the challenges brought by the war. These instructions, often handwritten or typed and signed by Sinwar, are delivered secretly.

In addition to written messages, Sinwar has had direct phone contact with Hamas leaders during critical moments. A senior source confirmed that, after arranging secure conditions, Sinwar managed to make phone calls, though these took considerable effort to set up.

The source also revealed that Sinwar sent at least two written messages and one voice recording to intermediaries during key points in the negotiations. He has been closely involved in every stage of the talks, carefully reviewing proposals and discussing them with Hamas leaders.

Contrary to his reputation as a tough negotiator, Sinwar has supported flexibility in several stages of the negotiations, surprising even the intermediaries. He is determined to end the bloodshed and bring the war to a close.

Despite Sinwar’s active role in Hamas, Israel has been unable to locate him, according to sources from Asharq Al-Awsat.

Earlier this year, Israel conducted a three-month operation in Khan Younis, searching for Sinwar both above and below ground, but came up empty-handed. A second attack on the city also failed to find him.

Now, Israel is launching another major operation in Sinwar’s hometown, just days after he was appointed Hamas leader.

Israeli army chief Maj.Gen. Herzi Halevi stated that Sinwar’s appointment as Hamas leader won’t change anything but will speed up efforts to capture him.

Field sources said Israel’s operation in Khan Younis was aimed at punishing civilians for Sinwar’s selection, trying to force them into cooperating to reveal his location.

“They even dropped leaflets urging people to turn against him,” the sources noted.

However, “none of the civilians targeted by Israel know where Sinwar is, or whether he’s above or below ground.”

A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?