Harris Pitches Muscular Foreign Policy, and Nuance On Gaza

An image of Kamala Harris with the word "Genocide" written is left on the pavement as police officers line up during a protest as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) takes place in Chicago, Illinois, on August 20, 2024. © Matthew Hatcher, AFP
An image of Kamala Harris with the word "Genocide" written is left on the pavement as police officers line up during a protest as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) takes place in Chicago, Illinois, on August 20, 2024. © Matthew Hatcher, AFP
TT

Harris Pitches Muscular Foreign Policy, and Nuance On Gaza

An image of Kamala Harris with the word "Genocide" written is left on the pavement as police officers line up during a protest as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) takes place in Chicago, Illinois, on August 20, 2024. © Matthew Hatcher, AFP
An image of Kamala Harris with the word "Genocide" written is left on the pavement as police officers line up during a protest as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) takes place in Chicago, Illinois, on August 20, 2024. © Matthew Hatcher, AFP

Kamala Harris is making her pitch to voters as a muscular defender of US interests while aiming for nuance on the painful issue of Gaza -- hoping to cover vulnerabilities and to paint Republican Donald Trump as the more risky candidate on national security.

In her speech accepting the Democratic nomination for president, the vice president vowed to "not cozy up to tyrants and dictators" who can flatter Trump as he "wants to be an autocrat himself."

The message predictably was one of continuity with her current boss President Joe Biden. But it also made her a rare Democrat to seek the White House on a message of being tougher on the world stage than the Republican, AFP reported.

Biden ran for president promising to end "forever wars" and pulled out of Afghanistan after 20 years.

Barack Obama, succeeding war leader George W. Bush, at his inauguration invited US adversaries to dialogue if "you unclench your fist."

Trump, while insisting that he also wants the United States out of foreign military engagements, frequently boasts of his readiness to threaten extreme force -- or what he calls "peace through strength."

Striking a hawkish note herself, Harris boasted she would maintain "the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world" and warned she would strike back at any Iranian-backed attack.

At a Chicago party convention that prominently featured veterans, Harris also vowed solidarity with Ukraine as she denounced Trump's threats not to defend NATO allies if he feels they are not paying enough.

Harris is vying to be the first female US president and therefore "needs to go above and beyond what a male candidate would need to do to demonstrate that she is strong," said Allison McManus of the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

"The public will still have an impression of a woman as being inherently a weaker leader than a man, and she needs to make up for that by being very explicit and clear about her commitment to defense," McManus said.

Harris's emphasis on force, McManus said, should not be confused with a truly hawkish foreign policy.

Harris won the biggest applause lines in her foreign policy section when she spoke of the suffering of Palestinians and promised to work so they "can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination."

Biden has faced heated criticism from the left for his support of Israel in its relentless campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas' October 7 attack.

Harris also pledged to "always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself." Some pro-Palestinian activists, who rallied on the Chicago streets, voiced outrage that the Democrats gave the podium to parents of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and not to Palestinians.

Biden himself has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do more to protect civilians and to drop opposition to a Palestinian state -- stances few expect from Trump.

But McManus said Harris's choice of the phrase "self-determination" marked an important reframing.

"It recognizes that Palestinians are a people, that they have rights and that they should be the ones who have a say in their own future," she said.

Critics, however, note that Biden with one exception has not used the key tool to pressure Israel -- restricting some of the billions in US weapons it receives.

Some activists have voiced more hope for Harris as she was the first senior US official to urge a ceasefire and her closest foreign policy advisor, Phil Gordon, wrote a book critical of US policy on the Middle East.

Gordon, however, has made clear that Harris does not support an arms embargo on Israel.

"I was fairly disappointed that she did not take this opportunity to try to at least send a stronger signal that she might be willing to break from the current administration," said Annelle Sheline, who resigned from the State Department in March to protest policy on Gaza.

"At the same time, I've not completely given up hope," she said.

Sheline, now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that US political calculations have long been that there is more to lose by being insufficiently pro-Israel.

"I think it may take a while for American politicians to learn that, actually, that has started to change," she said.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.