What We Know about the Deadly Pager Blasts in Lebanon 

A man's bag explodes in a supermarket in Beirut, Lebanon September 17, 2024 in this screen grab from a video obtained from social media. (Social media/via Reuters)
A man's bag explodes in a supermarket in Beirut, Lebanon September 17, 2024 in this screen grab from a video obtained from social media. (Social media/via Reuters)
TT

What We Know about the Deadly Pager Blasts in Lebanon 

A man's bag explodes in a supermarket in Beirut, Lebanon September 17, 2024 in this screen grab from a video obtained from social media. (Social media/via Reuters)
A man's bag explodes in a supermarket in Beirut, Lebanon September 17, 2024 in this screen grab from a video obtained from social media. (Social media/via Reuters)

At least nine people were killed and nearly 3,000 wounded when pagers used by Hezbollah members - including fighters and medics - detonated simultaneously across Lebanon.

Here's what we know so far about the pager blasts.

WHEN AND WHERE DID THE BLASTS TAKE PLACE?

The detonations started around 3:30 p.m. (1230 GMT) in the southern suburbs of Beirut known as Dahiyeh and the eastern Bekaa valley - strongholds of the anti-Israel armed group Hezbollah.

They lasted around an hour, with Reuters witnesses and residents of Dahiyeh saying they could still hear explosions at 4:30 p.m. (1730 GMT).

According to security sources and footage reviewed by Reuters, some of the detonations took place after the pagers rang, causing the fighters to put their hands on them or bring them up to their faces to check the screens.

HOW BIG WERE THE EXPLOSIONS?

The blasts were relatively contained, according to footage reviewed by Reuters. In two separate clips from closed-circuit video of supermarkets, the blasts appeared only to wound the person wearing the pager or closest to it.

Video from hospitals and shared on social media appeared to show individuals with injuries to their faces, missing fingers and gaping wounds at the hip where the pager was likely worn.

The blasts did not appear to cause major damage to buildings or start any fires.

WHAT TYPE OF PAGER EXPLODED?

Israel's Mossad spy agency planted a small amount of explosives inside 5,000 Taiwan-made pagers ordered by Lebanese group Hezbollah months before Tuesday's detonations, a senior Lebanese security source and another source told Reuters.

The Lebanese source said the group had ordered pagers made by Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, which several sources say were brought into the country earlier this year. The source identified a photograph of the model of the pager, an AP924.

Images of destroyed pagers analyzed by Reuters showed a format and stickers on the back that were consistent with pagers made by Gold Apollo, a Taiwan-based pager manufacturer.

Hezbollah did not reply to questions from Reuters on the make of the pagers. Gold Apollo's founder said the company did not make the pagers used in the explosions in Lebanon. They were manufactured by a company in Europe that had the right to use the Taiwanese firm's brand.

Hezbollah fighters began using pagers in the belief they would be able to evade Israeli tracking of their locations, two sources familiar with the group's operations told Reuters this year.

Three security sources told Reuters that the pagers that detonated were the latest model brought in by Hezbollah in recent months.

WHAT CAUSED THE PAGERS TO EXPLODE?

Iran-backed Hezbollah said it was carrying out a "security and scientific investigation" into the causes of the blasts and said Israel would receive "its fair punishment."

Diplomatic and security sources speculated that the explosions could have been caused by the devices' batteries detonating, possibly through overheating.

But others said that Israel might have infiltrated the supply chain for Hezbollah's pagers. The New York Times reported that Israel hid explosive material within a new batch of the pagers before they were imported to Lebanon, citing American and other officials briefed on the operation.

Several experts who spoke with Reuters said they doubted the battery alone would have been enough to cause the blasts.

Paul Christensen, an expert in lithium ion battery safety at Newcastle University, said the damage seemed inconsistent with past cases of such batteries failing.

"What we're talking about is a relatively small battery bursting into flames. We're not talking of a fatal explosion here...my intuition is telling me that it's highly unlikely," he said.

Another reason to doubt the explosions were caused by overheating batteries is that typically only a fully charged battery can catch fire or explode, said Ofodike Ezekoye, a University of Texas at Austin mechanical engineering professor.

"Below 50% (charge)...it will generate gases and vapor, but no fires or explosions. It is highly unlikely that everyone whose pager failed had a fully charged battery," he said.

Israeli intelligence forces have previously placed explosives in personal phones to target enemies, according to the 2018 book "Rise and Kill First". Hackers have also demonstrated the ability to inject malicious code into personal devices, causing them to overheat and explode in some instances.

WHAT HAVE THE AUTHORITIES SAID?

Lebanon's foreign ministry called the explosions an "Israeli cyberattack," but did not provide details on how it had reached that conclusion.

Lebanon's information minister said the attack was an assault on Lebanon's sovereignty.

Israel's military declined to respond to Reuters questions on the pager blasts.

The US State Department said Washington was gathering information and was not involved. The Pentagon said there was no change in US force posture in the Middle East in the wake of the incident.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT?

Analysts see the threat of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which have exchanged cross-border fire since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza last October.

But experts are more skeptical, for now, about the potential for triggering an imminent all-out Israel-Hezbollah war, which the US has sought to prevent and which it believes neither side wants.

Matthew Levitt, former deputy director of the US Treasury's intelligence office and author of a book on Hezbollah, said the pager explosions could disrupt its operations for some time.

Jonathan Panikoff, the US government's former deputy national intelligence officer on the Middle East, said Hezbollah might downplay its "biggest counterintelligence failure in decades" but rising tensions could eventually erupt into full-scale war if diplomacy continues to fall short.



Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

 Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
TT

Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

 Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)

Iran appears to have withdrawn itself from the latest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel on Monday intensified its operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah, striking targets in Lebanon’s South and eastern Bekaa Valley.

Iran seems noticeably absent as it arranges its political affairs with the United States and the West, said Lebanese political observers.

They pointed to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent remarks that Tehran was making a “tactical retreat” as it backs down from retaliating to Israeli strikes on Iranian interests. It also seems to have abandoned plans for avenging the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Most notably, they highlighted the Iranian foreign minister’s statement on Monday that his country is ready to hold talks on its nuclear program in New York where world leaders are meeting for the United Nations General Assembly.

The political observers appeared divided over whether Iran has really abandoned Hezbollah and was ready to exchange it in return for political gains on the negotiations table, or whether the ideological relationship between Iran and Hezbollah was really unbreakable.

Soaid: Hezbollah is abandoned to its fate

Head of the Saydet el-Jabal Gathering former MP Fares Soaid lamented that the scenario that unfolded in Gaza for nearly year is being replicated in Lebanon.

“The coming days will reveal whether Iran is leading the Resistance Axis against Israel or whether it is fighting Tel Aviv through its allies, while it is really focused on negotiations with the United States,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Day after day, it is becoming evident that members of Iran’s regional proxies are dying while fighting against Israel in order to improve Tehran’s negotiating position with Washington,” he explained.

“The Lebanese people are sensing that Hezbollah, which used to boast of Iran’s support for it, is now waging the battle alone. It is as if it has been left to its fate, while Iran arranges its papers with the West,” he added.

Geopolitical expert Ziad al-Sayegh said the fact that Iran has not joined the Israel’s fiercest battle against Lebanon, does not at all mean that it has abandoned Hezbollah.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that it was naive to believe that the bond between them could be so easily broken since they share deep ideological ties.

People in Lebanon believe that Iran’s failure to react to the latest dangerous developments in Lebanon, starting with the attack on Hezbollah’s communication devices and killing of senior Radwan unit commanders last week, mean it has abandoned the party and left it to its fate.

Surviving at Hezbollah’s expense

Soaid stressed that the Iranian leadership was trying to “survive this war and perhaps strike a deal at the expense of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.”

“Unfortunately, this is not the first time that a Lebanese party ties its fate to a foreign party and bets wrong,” he added.

He recalled how the Lebanese National Movement “tied its fate” to Palestinian Fatah movement leader Yasser Arafat in the 1970s.

“Syrian President Hafez al-Assad decided to eliminate Fatah, kicking off the process by assassinating Lebanon’s Kamal Jumblatt and newly elected President Bashir al-Gemayel,” noted Soaid.

Arafat couldn’t protect Jumblatt and no foreign power was able to save Gemayel, he explained.

“Regional forces are using internal forces, not the other way around,” he noted. “The situation today demonstrates that Hezbollah is following the orders of Tehran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, not the other way around,” he added.

Iran would never have gained so much influence in the region had the West not allowed it to run rampant.

Sayegh said the West “has granted Iran cover for years and the people of the region have played the price of this dirty work. The West won’t get out of this situation unscathed.”

“We have entered the era of eliminating extremism that is formed out of nationalist and religious ideology and Israel and Iran are best examples of this,” he stated.

“The Arab world is demanded to follow the course of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Hezbollah must read the historic and geographic truths through the lense of the Lebanese identity,” he urged.

“It must apply the constitution and respect the state’s sovereignty. Therein lies salvation,” he remarked.