After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
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After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)

The Biden administration says there is a significant difference between Israeli actions that have expanded its war against the Iranian-backed armed groups Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack against Israel, which it condemned as escalatory.

In carefully calibrated remarks, officials across the administration are defending the surge in attacks by Israel against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, while still pressing for peace and vowing retribution after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

President Joe Biden praised the US and Israel militaries for defeating the barrage and warned, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Iranian missile attack “totally unacceptable, and the entire world should condemn it.”

There was little criticism that Israel may have provoked Iran's assault. "Obviously, this is a significant escalation by Iran,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

Just a week after calling urgently for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East, the administration has shifted its message as Israel presses ahead with ground incursions in Lebanon following a massive airstrike Friday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan.

US officials stress that they have repeatedly come out in support of Israel’s right to defend itself and that any change in their language only reflects evolving conditions on the ground. And, officials say the administration’s goal — a ceasefire — has remained constant.

The US has been quick to praise and defend Israel for a series of recent strikes killing Hezbollah leaders. In contrast to its repeated criticism of Israel's war in Gaza that has killed civilians, the US has taken a different tack on strikes that targeted Nasrallah and others but also may have killed innocent people.

At the Pentagon, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder made it clear that while the US is still “laser focused” on preventing a wider conflict in the Middle East, he carved out broad leeway for Israel to keep going after Hezbollah to protect itself.

“We understand and support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah,” Ryder said. “We understand that part of that is dismantling some of the attack infrastructure that Hezbollah has built along the border.”

He said the US is going to consult with Israel as it conducts limited operations against Hezbollah positions along the border “that can be used to threaten Israeli citizens.” The goal, he said, is to allow citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

Part of the ongoing discussions that the US will have with Israel, Ryder said, will focus on making sure there’s an understanding about potential “mission creep” that could lead to tensions to escalate even further.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that Israel’s targeting of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as its initiation of ground incursions into Lebanon are justified because they were done in self-defense.

“If you look at the actions that they have taken, they were bringing terrorists to justice, terrorists who have launched attacks on Israeli civilians,” Miller said.

By contrast, he said that Iran’s response was dangerous and escalatory because it was done in support of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are US-designated terrorist organizations that Iran funds and supports.

“What you saw (was) Iran launching a state-on-state attack to protect and defend the terrorist groups that it built, nurtured and controlled,” Miller said. “So there is a difference between the actions.”

The full-throated defense of Israel, however, may come with risks. So far, there is little evidence that the Biden administration's push for a ceasefire and warnings of broadening the conflict have had much impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In commentary Monday, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that US influence on Netanyahu seems to be waning and that he “seems to have blown by US cautions about starting a regional war.”

The White House must “worry that a sustained inability to make diplomatic progress weakens US influence in the Middle East and around the world,” Alterman said, adding that “Netanyahu’s assurance that the United States will stand by Israel in any circumstance emboldens Israel to take more risks than it otherwise would.”



Will Israel Build on its War ‘Gains’ or Become More Involved in Lebanon?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the General Debate of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York, New York, USA, 27 September 2024. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the General Debate of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York, New York, USA, 27 September 2024. (EPA)
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Will Israel Build on its War ‘Gains’ or Become More Involved in Lebanon?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the General Debate of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York, New York, USA, 27 September 2024. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the General Debate of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York, New York, USA, 27 September 2024. (EPA)

As in every war, Israel is faced with two options: either invest in its military “gains” or seek a new “political horizon” after in the post-war scenario.

So, far the military and political commands are still riding the high of the series of victories against Hezbollah, from the detonation of the party’s pagers and walkie-talkies and eventually the crowning “achievement” of the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday.

These “successes” undoubtedly are good for Israel in raising morale among its people and troops and restoring some of the image of its army and intelligence that took a damaging hit by the Hamas’ October 7 operation.

These achievements, however, can be quickly dashed if Israel doesn’t invest them politically and militarily.

On the military level, these accomplishments are useless if the army were to get carried away in its arrogance and gloating. It must derive lessons from history, which has proven that power has limits and that any enemy can be defeated, except for arrogance.

Arrogance will be anyone’s downfall, no matter how powerful they are. Using more might to achieve what wasn’t achieved by force the first time is not only a misconception but also foolish. Many countries have paid the price in blood for following such an idea and the Israeli army’s threat of more escalation and expanding operations is in this vein.

Hezbollah’s continued attacks against Israel, despite the heavy blows it has been dealt, will drag Israel towards scenarios it experienced no less than three times in the past in Lebanon, once in 1978, 1982 and 2006.

What’s the plan?

Israelis must point out to their experience generals that the assassination of former Hezbollah chief Abbas Moussawi in 1992 led to the appointment of Nasrallah, who drew the party even closer to Iran and its agenda. He turned the party into an organized armed movement that rivals regular armies.

And yet, the situation is not limited to the army. Israel is led by a government that guides the army, which is demanding it to draft a strategic plan for the state upon which it can build its military plan. As of this moment, this plan has not been formed yet.

The American administration has come to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aid and offered him a golden opportunity for peace so that he can come down from his high horse. It offered him the opportunity to strike peace with Arab countries and create horizons for peace in the region,

However, the Americans themselves are also aware that Israeli officials have said that their country does not have a leader, not because the PM is weak, but because he is simply running the country according to his narrow interests.

Netanyahu has not shied away from confronting US President Joe Biden – a self-professed Zionist who has offered everything possible for Israel during the war – for the sake of his interests. Netanyahu makes light of Biden and even criticizes presidential candidate Donald Trump to shy away from any possible political opportunities.

In Israel, Netanyahu is seen as a salesman, not a leader. Israelis fear the price that has been paid and that will be paid in the future.