After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
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After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)

The Biden administration says there is a significant difference between Israeli actions that have expanded its war against the Iranian-backed armed groups Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack against Israel, which it condemned as escalatory.

In carefully calibrated remarks, officials across the administration are defending the surge in attacks by Israel against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, while still pressing for peace and vowing retribution after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

President Joe Biden praised the US and Israel militaries for defeating the barrage and warned, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Iranian missile attack “totally unacceptable, and the entire world should condemn it.”

There was little criticism that Israel may have provoked Iran's assault. "Obviously, this is a significant escalation by Iran,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

Just a week after calling urgently for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East, the administration has shifted its message as Israel presses ahead with ground incursions in Lebanon following a massive airstrike Friday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan.

US officials stress that they have repeatedly come out in support of Israel’s right to defend itself and that any change in their language only reflects evolving conditions on the ground. And, officials say the administration’s goal — a ceasefire — has remained constant.

The US has been quick to praise and defend Israel for a series of recent strikes killing Hezbollah leaders. In contrast to its repeated criticism of Israel's war in Gaza that has killed civilians, the US has taken a different tack on strikes that targeted Nasrallah and others but also may have killed innocent people.

At the Pentagon, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder made it clear that while the US is still “laser focused” on preventing a wider conflict in the Middle East, he carved out broad leeway for Israel to keep going after Hezbollah to protect itself.

“We understand and support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah,” Ryder said. “We understand that part of that is dismantling some of the attack infrastructure that Hezbollah has built along the border.”

He said the US is going to consult with Israel as it conducts limited operations against Hezbollah positions along the border “that can be used to threaten Israeli citizens.” The goal, he said, is to allow citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

Part of the ongoing discussions that the US will have with Israel, Ryder said, will focus on making sure there’s an understanding about potential “mission creep” that could lead to tensions to escalate even further.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that Israel’s targeting of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as its initiation of ground incursions into Lebanon are justified because they were done in self-defense.

“If you look at the actions that they have taken, they were bringing terrorists to justice, terrorists who have launched attacks on Israeli civilians,” Miller said.

By contrast, he said that Iran’s response was dangerous and escalatory because it was done in support of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are US-designated terrorist organizations that Iran funds and supports.

“What you saw (was) Iran launching a state-on-state attack to protect and defend the terrorist groups that it built, nurtured and controlled,” Miller said. “So there is a difference between the actions.”

The full-throated defense of Israel, however, may come with risks. So far, there is little evidence that the Biden administration's push for a ceasefire and warnings of broadening the conflict have had much impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In commentary Monday, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that US influence on Netanyahu seems to be waning and that he “seems to have blown by US cautions about starting a regional war.”

The White House must “worry that a sustained inability to make diplomatic progress weakens US influence in the Middle East and around the world,” Alterman said, adding that “Netanyahu’s assurance that the United States will stand by Israel in any circumstance emboldens Israel to take more risks than it otherwise would.”



Nasrallah’s Killing Reveals Depth of Israel’s Penetration of Hezbollah

An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
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Nasrallah’s Killing Reveals Depth of Israel’s Penetration of Hezbollah

An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)

In the wake of Hassan Nasrallah's killing, Hezbollah faces the enormous challenge of plugging the infiltration in its ranks that allowed its arch enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, booby-trap its communications and assassinate the veteran leader, whose whereabouts had been a closely guarded secret for years.

Nasrallah's killing in a command HQ on Friday came barely a week after the deadly detonation of thousands of booby-trapped Hezbollah pagers and hundreds of radios - attacks widely blamed on Israel but which it has not claimed. His assassination was the culmination of a rapid succession of strikes that have eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and decimated its top military command.

In the days before and hours after Nasrallah's killing, Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria who provided details of the damage Israel has wrought on the powerful Shiite armed group, including to its supply lines and command structure. All asked for anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.

One source familiar with Israeli thinking told Reuters, less than 24 hours before the strike, that Israel has spent 20 years focusing intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could hit Nasrallah when it wanted, including in the headquarters.

The person called the intelligence "brilliant," without providing details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close circle of ministers authorized the attack on Wednesday, two Israeli officials told Reuters. The attack took place while Netanyahu was in New York to speak at the UN General Assembly.

Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since a previous 2006 war. He had long been vigilant, his movements were restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah's security arrangements. The assassination suggested his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel, the source said.

The leader had been even more cautious than usual since the Sept. 17 pager blasts, out of concern Israel would try to kill him, a security source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking told Reuters a week ago, citing his absence from a commanders' funeral and his pre-recording of a speech broadcast a few days before.

Hezbollah's media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. US President Joe Biden on Saturday called Nasrallah's killing "a measure of justice" for his many victims, and said the United States fully supported Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.

Israel says it carried out the hit on Nasrallah by dropping bombs on the underground headquarters below a residential building in southern Beirut.

"This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah," Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University. "They knew that he was meeting. He was meeting with other commanders. And they just went for him."

Including Nasrallah, Israel's military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the rocket division to the elite Radwan force.

Around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were maimed by the exploding pagers and walkie talkies on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18.

On Saturday, Israel's military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a briefing that the military had "real-time" knowledge that Nasrallah and other leaders were gathering. Shoshani did not say how they knew, but said the leaders were meeting to plan attacks on Israel.

Brigadier General Amichai Levin, commander of Israel's Hatzerim Airbase, told reporters that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds.

"The operation was complex and was planned for a long time," according to Levin.

DEPLETED

Hezbollah has shown the ability to replace commanders quickly, and Nasrallah's cousin Hashem Safieddine, also a cleric, has long been tipped as his successor.

"You kill one, they get a new one," said a European diplomat of the group's approach.

The group, whose name means Party of God, will fight on: by US and Israeli estimates it had some 40,000 fighters ahead of the current escalation, along with large weapons stockpiles and an extensive tunnel network near Israel's border.

Founded in Lebanon in 1982, the group is the most formidable member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance of anti-Israel allied irregular forces.

But it has been materially and psychologically weakened over the past 10 days.

Thanks to decades of backing from Iran, prior to the current conflict Hezbollah was among the world's most well-armed non-conventional armies, with an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, according to US estimates.

That is ten times the size of the armory the group had in 2006, during its last war with Israel, according to Israeli estimates.

Over the past year, even more weapons have flowed into Lebanon from Iran, along with significant amounts of financial aid, a source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said.

There have been few detailed public assessments of how much this arsenal has been damaged by Israel's offensive over the past week, which has hit Hezbollah strongholds in Bekka Valley, far from Lebanon's border with Israel.

One Western diplomat in the Middle East told Reuters prior to Friday's attack that Hezbollah had lost 20%-25% of its missile capacity in the ongoing conflict, including in hundreds of Israeli strikes this week. The diplomat did not provide evidence or details of their assessment.

An Israeli security official said "a very respectable portion" of Hezbollah's missile stocks had been destroyed, without giving further specifics.

In recent days, Israel has struck more than 1,000 Hezbollah targets. The security official, when asked about the military's extensive target lists, said Israel had matched Hezbollah's two-decade build up with preparations to prevent it launching its rockets in the first place - a complement to the Iron Dome air defense system that often downs missiles fired at the Jewish state.

Israeli officials say the fact that Hezbollah has only been able to launch a couple of hundred missiles a day in the past week was evidence its capabilities had been diminished.

IRAN CONNECTION

Before the strike on Nasrallah, three Iranian sources told Reuters Iran was planning to send additional missiles to Hezbollah to prepare for a prolonged war.

The weapons that were to be provided included short-to-medium-range ballistic missiles including Iranian Zelzals and an upgraded precision version known as the Fateh 110, the first Iranian source said.

Reuters was unable to reach the sources after the Nasrallah assassination.

While Iran is willing to provide military support, the two Iranian sources said it does not want to be directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. The rapid escalation in hostilities over the past week follows a year of skirmishes tied to the Gaza war.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in the Israeli strikes on Beirut on Friday, Iranian media reported on Saturday, citing a state TV report.

Hezbollah may need certain warheads and missiles along with drones and missile parts to replenish those destroyed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon last week, a senior Syrian military intelligence source added.

Iranian supplies have in the past reached Hezbollah by air and sea. On Saturday, Lebanon's transport ministry told an Iranian aircraft not to enter its airspace after Israel warned air traffic control at Beirut airport that it would use "force" if the plane landed, a source at the ministry told Reuters.

The source said it was not clear what was on the plane.

Land corridors are currently the best route for missiles, parts and drones, through Iraq and Syria, with the help of allied armed groups in those countries, an Iranian security official told Reuters this week.

The Syrian military source, however, said Israeli drone surveillance and strikes targeting convoys of trucks had compromised that route. This year, Israel stepped up attacks on weapons depots and supply routes in Syria to weaken Hezbollah ahead of any war, Reuters reported in June.

As recently as August, an Israeli drone hit weapons concealed in commercial trailers in Syria, the source said. This week, Israel's military said its warplanes bombed unspecified infrastructure used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah at the Syria-Lebanon border.

Joseph Votel, a former Army general who led US forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could well intercept any missiles Iran sent by land to Hezbollah now.

"That might be a risk they're willing to take, frankly," he said.