Since suffering major setbacks on September 17, the day its communication systems were targeted, Hezbollah appears to have outlined a new military strategy for confronting Israel in a potential large-scale war.
The strategy focuses on gradually increasing missile strikes and targeting key sites, while giving priority to ground combat. Hezbollah is aiming to resist Israeli attacks, which have recently spread to south Lebanon’s western sector after a week of fighting in the eastern and central sectors.
In a statement on Tuesday, Hezbollah confirmed its missile forces are ready to strike any location in Israel as directed by its leadership.
The group warned that further Israeli aggression could lead to strikes on Haifa and beyond, making those areas as vulnerable as the border towns of Kiryat Sehmona and Metula. It also hinted that its attacks wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones.
Hezbollah Preparing for a Long Fight
Military expert Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni explained that Hezbollah’s current actions are part of an existing plan rather than a new strategy.
“This phase is about implementing plans that were already in place,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Hezbollah is now intensifying its missile use and choosing more significant targets, having delivered recent blows to Haifa.
On the battlefield, Jouni said Hezbollah’s approach is clear: resist Israeli advances and inflict losses.
He emphasized that the group’s goal isn’t to prevent an Israeli occupation but to make it unsustainable. Hezbollah’s defense of the front lines, he added, is aimed at lowering Israeli morale and taking advantage of key positions.
Jouni also highlighted comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said a prolonged conflict would put Israel in a tough position, suggesting Hezbollah is prepared for a long fight and will gradually escalate its use of missiles.
Haifa for Beirut’s Southern Suburbs ‘Dahiyeh’
Brig. Gen. Munir Shehadeh, Lebanon’s former coordinator with UNIFIL, said Hezbollah is fighting with little left to lose after Israel’s assassination of its leaders and the destruction of its communities.
Shehadeh suggested that Hezbollah’s strategy would involve targeting areas beyond Haifa and Tel Aviv, already hitting residential areas in Haifa under the “Haifa for Dahiyeh” equation.
Hezbollah, Shehadeh explained, is relying on close-range combat to prove its resilience after severe blows that would normally lead to surrender.
Iran Holds the Key
Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader expressed doubts that any strategy could save Hezbollah after the losses of its leaders and large missile stockpiles. He argued that while Hezbollah may still be able to fight on the ground, it will struggle to withstand a large-scale Israeli invasion.
Nader also noted that if Hezbollah had the capability to strike strategic targets within Israel, it would have already done so. He said the decision to launch such attacks ultimately rests with Iran, not Hezbollah.
