Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
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Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo

Since suffering major setbacks on September 17, the day its communication systems were targeted, Hezbollah appears to have outlined a new military strategy for confronting Israel in a potential large-scale war.

The strategy focuses on gradually increasing missile strikes and targeting key sites, while giving priority to ground combat. Hezbollah is aiming to resist Israeli attacks, which have recently spread to south Lebanon’s western sector after a week of fighting in the eastern and central sectors.

In a statement on Tuesday, Hezbollah confirmed its missile forces are ready to strike any location in Israel as directed by its leadership.

The group warned that further Israeli aggression could lead to strikes on Haifa and beyond, making those areas as vulnerable as the border towns of Kiryat Sehmona and Metula. It also hinted that its attacks wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones.

Hezbollah Preparing for a Long Fight

Military expert Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni explained that Hezbollah’s current actions are part of an existing plan rather than a new strategy.

“This phase is about implementing plans that were already in place,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hezbollah is now intensifying its missile use and choosing more significant targets, having delivered recent blows to Haifa.

On the battlefield, Jouni said Hezbollah’s approach is clear: resist Israeli advances and inflict losses.

He emphasized that the group’s goal isn’t to prevent an Israeli occupation but to make it unsustainable. Hezbollah’s defense of the front lines, he added, is aimed at lowering Israeli morale and taking advantage of key positions.

Jouni also highlighted comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said a prolonged conflict would put Israel in a tough position, suggesting Hezbollah is prepared for a long fight and will gradually escalate its use of missiles.

Haifa for Beirut’s Southern Suburbs ‘Dahiyeh’

Brig. Gen. Munir Shehadeh, Lebanon’s former coordinator with UNIFIL, said Hezbollah is fighting with little left to lose after Israel’s assassination of its leaders and the destruction of its communities.

Shehadeh suggested that Hezbollah’s strategy would involve targeting areas beyond Haifa and Tel Aviv, already hitting residential areas in Haifa under the “Haifa for Dahiyeh” equation.

Hezbollah, Shehadeh explained, is relying on close-range combat to prove its resilience after severe blows that would normally lead to surrender.

Iran Holds the Key

Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader expressed doubts that any strategy could save Hezbollah after the losses of its leaders and large missile stockpiles. He argued that while Hezbollah may still be able to fight on the ground, it will struggle to withstand a large-scale Israeli invasion.

Nader also noted that if Hezbollah had the capability to strike strategic targets within Israel, it would have already done so. He said the decision to launch such attacks ultimately rests with Iran, not Hezbollah.



What Has Assad’s Fall Revealed about the Captagon Drug Trade in Syria?

 A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
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What Has Assad’s Fall Revealed about the Captagon Drug Trade in Syria?

 A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)

Since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, industrial-scale manufacturing facilities of Captagon have been uncovered around the country, which experts say helped flourish a $10 billion annual global trade in the highly addictive drug.

Among the locations used for manufacturing the drug were the Mazzeh air base in Damascus, a car-trading company in Latakia and a former potato chips factory on the outskirts of Damascus.

The factory that once produced the crunchy snack in the suburb of Douma under the name, Captain Corn, was seized by government forces in 2018.

"Assad’s collaborators controlled this place. After the regime fell... I came here and found it on fire," Firas al-Toot, the original owner of the factory, told The Associated Press. "They came at night and lit the drugs on fire but couldn’t burn everything."

"From here, Captagon pills emerged to kill our people," said Abu Zihab, an activist with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main group now ruling the country, as his group gave access to journalists to the site.

Syria's nearly 14-year-old civil war fragmented the country, crumbled the economy and created fertile ground for the production of the drug. Militias, warlords and the Assad government transformed Captagon from a small-scale operation run by small criminal groups into a billion-dollar industrial revenue stream.

The recent ousting of Assad has disrupted these networks and has given a closer look at its operations — revealing the workings of a war economy that sustained Assad’s power over Syria. Experts say the change in Syria might create an opportunity to dismantle the Captagon industry.

How did Syria build its Captagon empire?

Captagon was first developed in Germany in the 1960s as a prescription stimulant for conditions like narcolepsy. It was later outlawed due to heart issues and its addictive properties.

Its amphetamine-like effects made it popular in the Middle East among both elites and fighters, as it enhanced focus and reduced fatigue.

Assad's government recognized an opportunity in the cheaply manufactured drug amid Syria’s economic turmoil and the heavy sanctions imposed on it.

Captagon is produced through a simple chemical process that involves mixing amphetamine derivatives with excipients to form tablets, typically in makeshift labs.

The Captagon trade began industrializing around 2018-2019 as the Assad regime — and other armed groups in Syria -- invested in production facilities, warehouses and trafficking networks. This allowed Syria to emerge as the largest producer of Captagon globally, with some production also occurring in Lebanon.

Most seized consignments of Captagon originated from Syria, according to data by the New Lines Captagon Trade Project, an initiative of the New Lines Institute think tank.

Evidence of the Assad regime’s sponsorship of the Captagon industry is overwhelming, the report published in May said. The Security Office of the 4th Armored Division of the Syrian Arab Army, headed by Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher oversaw operations and created a coordinated production system, the report added.

Where and how was Captagon smuggled?

Captagon was smuggled across the border using various methods, hiding Captagon in trucks, cargo shipments and goods. Some shipments are concealed in food, electronics and construction materials to evade detection.

The primary smuggling routes were Syria’s porous borders with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, from which the drug is distributed throughout the region. Some were also shipped from Latakia port.

In Lebanon, the Captagon trade has flourished, particularly near the Syrian border and in the Bekaa Valley. Lebanese authorities struggled to curb the flow of Captagon from Syria, which analysts say was facilitated by the Hezbollah group, a key Assad ally.

Following the discovery of crates of fruit meticulously packed with bundles of the drug hidden among pomegranates and oranges, Saudi Arabia and the UAE implemented bans on Lebanese agricultural products.

Captagon has also found its way into international markets, reaching as far as Southeast Asia and parts of Europe.

How much revenue did it produce for the Assad regime?

The annual global trade in Captagon has an estimated value of $10 billion, with the ousted Assad family's annual profit reaching around $2.4 billion, according to Caroline Rose, director of the New York-based New Lines Institute Captagon Trade Project.

"Seeing the uncovering of so many industrial-scale facilities affiliated with the regime was shocking but not surprising. There was extensive evidence linking key regime-aligned cronies and Assad family members to the trade," said Rose, whose organization tracks all publicly recorded Captagon seizures and lab raids. The discovery of the facilities, she said, confirmed "the concrete relationship between Captagon and the former regime."

The exact number of factories in Syria remains unclear, but experts and HTS members estimate that there are likely hundreds spread throughout the country.

The future of Captagon in post-Assad Syria

Assad has turned Syria into "the largest Captagon factory in the world," HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa stated in a victory speech at Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque on Dec. 8. "Today, Syria is being cleansed, thanks to the grace of Almighty God."

While Assad and his circle may have been the primary beneficiaries, there is also evidence that Syrian opposition groups were involved in drug smuggling, opposition groups, local militias and organized crime networks manufactured and smuggled the drug to finance their operations, analysts say.

"Likely, we will see a short-term supply reduction in the trade, with a decline in the size and frequency of seizures as industrial-scale production is largely halted. However, criminal actors are innovative, likely seeking out new locations to engage in production and smuggling, particularly as demand levels remain stable," Rose said.

They may also "seek out alternative illicit trades to engage in instead," she said.

In addition to dismantling the Captagon trade, the country's transitional government should "establish programs for economic development that will incentivize Syrians to participate in the country’s formal, licit economic sphere," Rose said.