Israel’s Targeting of Lebanese Army: ‘Military Error’ or Message to Stay Away from Border?

Lebanese soldiers are seen in the town of Baaloul in the western Bekaa after a strike in the area. (Reuters)
Lebanese soldiers are seen in the town of Baaloul in the western Bekaa after a strike in the area. (Reuters)
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Israel’s Targeting of Lebanese Army: ‘Military Error’ or Message to Stay Away from Border?

Lebanese soldiers are seen in the town of Baaloul in the western Bekaa after a strike in the area. (Reuters)
Lebanese soldiers are seen in the town of Baaloul in the western Bekaa after a strike in the area. (Reuters)

Israel’s targeting of Lebanese soldiers and their vehicles has raised questions about its attacks, especially amid discussions about the role the Lebanese army will play after the end of the war with Hezbollah.

Twenty-five Lebanese soldiers have been killed since Hezbollah opened its “support front” for its ally Hamas in Gaza on October 8, 2023. The soldiers were killed while on duty, either in a direct hit or as a result of nearby Israeli attack.

The latest casualties were reported on Sunday. Three soldiers were killed when Israel directly struck their vehicle in the Ain Ebel region.

The Israeli military issued an apology on Monday, saying it did not know that the vehicle it was targeting belonged to the army.

Israel said it struck a truck on Sunday that had entered an area where it had previously targeted a Hezbollah truck transporting a launcher and missiles. It said its soldiers were not aware that the second truck belonged to the Lebanese army.

It added that it is “not operating against the Lebanese Army and apologizes for these unwanted circumstances.”

Around ten days ago, Israel also targeted a Lebanese army position in the Kafra region in the South, leaving two soldiers dead. It again said it did not know that Lebanese troops were stationed in the area.

The Israeli statements do not clear it of the responsibility of killing the soldiers, especially when Israel is already crossing all red lines, a military source told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The repeated attacks against the Lebanese army “could be a message from Israel to limit its movement and deployment of its forces at the southern border.” This is a similar tactic Israel is using with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Israel wants to establish a buffer zone in the South and is adopting a scorched-earth policy. Nothing can stand in its way and it sees no red lines to stop it from pursuing its goal, added the source.

Some 4,500 soldiers are deployed in the South to primarily monitor the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701 and the violations against it.

The soldiers moved back between 3 to 4 kms when Israel escalated its attacks against Hezbollah earlier this month, said the source.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had declared earlier this month that he had tasked Army Commander Joseph Aoun with “doing what he sees fit to protect Lebanon and its military institution given the Israeli assault on Lebanon.”

Retired General Walid Aoun said: “There doesn’t seem to be any clear decision by Israel to attack the Lebanese army.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he noted that during the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the former struck an army barracks in the al-Jomhour region after claiming that it suspected it be a rocket base. Over 20 soldiers were killed in the attack.

“Israel is determined to achieve its goals and so it will not take into account other factors. So, if the army happens to be deployed near its targets, it will not hesitate in making the strike, regardless of the consequences,” he explained.

However, he expressed his concern over the negative impact the strikes will have on the army should they continue, seeing as the military will have a main role to play in the implementation of resolution 1701 in the South when the conflict is over.

Moreover, he explained that the role of the army is stipulated by the political powers and government. They task it with its duties. “As of yet, the army has not been tasked with confronting the enemy,” Aoun remarked.



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”