The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
TT

The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)

He was impeached twice, found liable in fraud and sexual abuse lawsuits, convicted of dozens of felonies and has been declared politically dead again and again -- but count Donald Trump out at your peril.

With just over a week to go until his third presidential election -- and a little over three months after he was literally shot at -- the Republican tycoon's political stamina is as robust as ever.

The 78-year-old has emerged from a summer of missteps and a lurch into authoritarian rhetoric with better odds of securing a second White House term than at any point since that July assassination attempt in a field in Pennsylvania.

Trump detractors have watched the unforced errors in his 2024 campaign with a mix of delight, frustration and bewilderment as the man whose downfall has long been predicted has managed to keep his supporters on board.

Depending on who you ask, Trump's biggest fumbles have been a divisive vice-presidential pick, a laissez-faire attitude to his daily campaign work and an excessive focus on outgoing president Biden.

Trump's own words have, as ever, been extraordinary -- from wild conspiracy theories about immigrants eating people's pets and lies about hurricanes to authoritarian threats of revenge against his opponents.

- Secret sauce -

And then there's what Democrats have labelled the "weird" stuff -- the personal insults and name-calling, rambling interviews and rally speeches, and a campaign event that ended with Trump swaying onstage to music for 40 minutes.

The oldest major-party presidential candidate ever, Trump is out on bail in two criminal cases that could mean him seeing out his days in jail and in theory he is due to be sentenced in a third just after the election.

And yet the race remains a toss-up, with a trend line moving incrementally in Trump's favor that suggests he is weathering Democratic rival Kamala Harris's warnings that he is unfit for office.

For some analysts, Trump's secret sauce is his ability to play the part of the heroic outsider -- targeted by corrupt elites for his insurgent campaign to shake up politics on behalf of the forgotten millions.

Political consultant Andrew Koneschusky sees four planks to Trump's campaign -- an appeal to rudderless young men, exploitation of anger over inflation, the weaponization of race and gender and the scapegoating of immigrants.

"Trump's campaign strategy relies heavily on tapping into negative emotions, which typically register more strongly than positive ones," said the analyst, a former press secretary to Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer.

"In some cases, this is distasteful or revolting. For some voters it might also be effective."

- 'Avenging angel' -

Donald Nieman, a political analyst and professor at Binghamton University in New York state, believes Trump's unorthodox conduct -- the "rants, conspiracy theories, vulgarities, unvarnished racist and sexist attacks" -- thrill a base that sees Trump as their "avenging angel."

"Many others hold their noses and support him because they believe he will be better on issues they care about -- the economy, immigration, abortion," Nieman said.

Dubbed "Teflon Don" by US headline writers, Trump has a salesman's instinct for self-publicity, honed in his days as a brash 1980s New York developer trying to force his way into the celebrity gossip columns.

And while liberals and much of the media look at Trump's unorthodox, freewheeling style -- his rally speeches about windmills and fictional serial killers -- as disqualifying, his fans see authenticity.

Utah-based political analyst and PR expert Adrienne Uthe believes Trump and his base share an emotional connection missing in most political campaigns, as he taps into their patriotism, distrust of the media and fear of losing their culture.

"His supporters see him as a champion against what they perceive as a corrupt establishment. Despite controversies, Trump frames himself as a fighter, unyielding in the face of opposition," she told AFP.

"Many of his followers admire this resilience, viewing him as someone who defends their values and disrupts a political system they believe has ignored them for decades."



Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
TT

Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)

Every rainy season for the past 12 years, floods have swept through 67-year-old Idris Egbunu's house in central Nigeria.

It is always the same story -- the Niger River bursts its banks and the waters claim his home for weeks on end, until he can return and take stock of the damage.

The house then needs cleaning, repairs, fumigation and repainting, until the next rainy season.

Flooding is almost inevitable around Lokoja in Nigeria's Kogi state, where Africa's third-longest river meets its main tributary, the Benue.

But across vast areas of Africa, climate change has thrown weather patterns into disarray and made flooding much more severe, especially this year.

Devastating inundations are threatening the survival of millions of residents on the continent. Homes have been wrecked and crops ruined, jeopardizing regional food security.

Torrential rains and severe flooding have affected around 6.9 million people in West and Central Africa so far in 2024, according to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

- 'Very, very bad' -

Residents and officials around Lokoja said floods first became more severe in Kogi state in 2012 and have battered the area each year since.

In 2022, Nigeria's worst floods in a decade killed more than 500 people and displaced 1.4 million.

Sandra Musa, an emergency agency adviser to the Kogi state governor, believes this year's flooding has not yet reached the level seen in 2022, but warned it was "very, very bad".

"Usually at this time of year the water level drops, but here it's rising again," she told AFP, estimating that the floods have affected around two million people in the state.

Fatima Bilyaminu, a 31-year-old mother and shopkeeper, can only get to her house in the Adankolo district of Lokoja by boat as a result of the waters.

The swollen river rises almost to the windows, while water hyacinths float past the crumbling building.

"I lost everything. My bed, my cushioned chair, my wardrobe, my kitchen equipment," she told AFP.

With no money to rent a house elsewhere, she has little choice but to keep living in the small concrete building and repair it, flood after flood.

- Damage and displacement -

Africa is bearing the brunt of climate change, even though it only contributes around four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization.

This year is set to overtake 2023 as the world's hottest on record.

"This year has been unusual in terms of the amount of rainfall, with many extreme events, which is one of the signs of climate change," said Aida Diongue-Niang from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the Sahel region bordering the Sahara desert, the volume, intensity and duration of rainfall was "unprecedented," according to Amadou Diakite from the Mali Meteo weather service.

In Niger, some regions recorded up to 200 percent more rain than in previous years, the national meteorological service said. The waters put at risk the historic city center of Agadez, a UNESCO World Heritage site in the desert north.

Over the border in Chad, torrential rains since July have killed at least 576 people and affected 1.9 million, more than 10 percent of the population, according to a report published by the OCHA.

In neighboring Cameroon, the UN body said torrential rains had destroyed more than 56,000 homes and flooded tens of thousands of hectares of crops.

Floodwaters swept through the capital Conakry in Guinea, while floods in Monrovia reignited debates over building another city to serve as Liberia's capital.

Entire districts of Mali's capital Bamako were submerged, leaving waste and liquid from septic tanks seeping across the streets.

In August, downpours caused the roof of the centuries-old Tomb of Askia in the Malian city of Gao to collapse.

Several countries have postponed the start of the school year as a result of the floods.

- 'Keep getting worse' -

"It used to be a decadal cycle of flooding, and we're now into a yearly cycle," said Clair Barnes, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

"This is only going to keep getting worse if we keep burning fossil fuels," she said.

As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity, scientists warn.

Experts estimate that by 2030, up to 118 million Africans already living in poverty will be exposed to drought, floods and intense heat.

Building along riverbanks also poses a risk, Youssouf Sane of Senegal's meteorology agency said, urging governments to think about the relationship between climate change and urbanization.

But the IPCC's Diongue-Niang said the only way to tackle extreme weather was to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

"That doesn't fall to the region -- it falls to the whole of humanity," she said.