What We Know About Hezbollah’s Shura Council

Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
TT

What We Know About Hezbollah’s Shura Council

Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)

If it is confirmed that Hezbollah’s Shura Council has met and elected Sheikh Naim Qassem as the party’s new secretary-general, this would indicate two important developments, according to sources close to the group.

First, it shows that Hezbollah has restructured and revitalized itself after facing major setbacks, as it can now hold meetings with senior leaders despite significant security risks.

Second, it counters rumors that Tehran controls the party’s political and military leadership since the assassination of secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah last month.

Hezbollah’s organizational structure includes several councils: the Shura Council, Jihad Council, Executive Council, Political Council, Governmental and Parliamentary Work Council, and Judiciary Council.

The Shura Council is the most critical, as it leads the party.

It is made up of seven members, including the secretary-general, who is also its head—now Qassem.

Other members include Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, head of the Judiciary Council; Sheikh Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid, head of the Political Council; Hashem Safieddine, the recently assassinated head of the Executive Council and presumed Nasrallah successor; Hussein Khalil, the political assistant to the secretary-general; and Mohammad Raad, head of the Parliamentary Council and leader of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc in the Lebanese Parliament.

With the appointment of a new secretary-general, two positions on Hezbollah’s Shura Council remain unfilled: the deputy secretary-general and the head of the Executive Council.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir, who closely monitors the group, points out that a deputy has yet to be named. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the appointment of a secretary-general is significant, sending a message that Hezbollah is strong and in control of its affairs.

“It is incorrect to say that Iran is running it,” he added.

Qassir believes the remaining council positions will be filled soon.

Other sources indicate that even if a deputy is appointed, their identity may not be disclosed right away.

This is because, like Qassem, they would become a key target for Israel, which aims to keep Hezbollah leaderless.

Hezbollah’s organizational structure comprises three main components. First, the secretary-general acts as the leader, holding significant regulatory authority.

Second, the Shura Council oversees four key councils: the Jihad Council, the Judiciary Council, the Parliamentary Work Council, and the Political Council.

Third, the Executive Council serves as the organizational core, functioning like a government and coordinating various operational units.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.