Iran After Trump’s Win: Calls for New Approach, Challenge to Soleimani’s ‘Killer’

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has said that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election offers an opportunity for the US to reassess its “misguided policies.”

“What matters for Iran is the performance of the US administration,” said Ismail Baghai on Thursday, noting that Tehran had “bitter experiences” with past US policies.

He added that Trump’s win is a “chance to reconsider the previous wrong directions” of the US, according to the official IRNA news agency.

Iranian newspapers were divided, with some calling for Tehran to adopt a new approach, while others opposed the policies of the “architect of maximum pressure” and the “killer” of Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the US election result was of no concern to Iran.

“It doesn't matter to us who won the US election, as our strength lies in our internal power and a great nation,” Pezeshkian said.

“We are not narrow-minded in developing relations with other countries, prioritizing ties with Islamic and neighboring nations,” he added, according to Iranian media. It was unclear if he was referring to the US, with which Iran has no diplomatic ties.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has banned direct talks with the US.

On Wednesday, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mahdiani downplayed the importance of the election.

“The US presidential election won’t affect us. Iran’s policies remain unchanged,” she said.

“It doesn't matter who the US president is. We’ve already planned for various scenarios, given the sanctions on Iran for over 40 years,” she added.

Last Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “We don’t place much importance on the US election or who is elected.”

Baghai, speaking at his weekly press conference on Monday, said Iran’s stance on Trump is “clear” when asked how Tehran would respond if Trump offered to negotiate.

Trump’s victory comes amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, with direct strikes exchanged after years of indirect conflict.

Reuters speculated that Trump’s return to office would mean stricter enforcement of US oil sanctions on Iran, which were imposed in 2018 after the US left the nuclear deal.

Trump criticized President Joe Biden’s policy of not enforcing strict sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, claiming it weakened the US and emboldened Tehran to expand its nuclear program and support armed groups.

In his first term, Trump reimposed sanctions after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, which had limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits.

These sanctions hurt Iran’s oil exports, reduced government revenue, and led to unpopular measures like tax hikes, while inflation remained near 40%.

In September, Pezeshkian said Tehran was ready to resolve the nuclear issue with the West, which accuses Iran of seeking nuclear weapons.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but officials have hinted at possibly changing its direction.

Biden tried to revive the nuclear deal but failed to reach a new agreement. It’s unclear if Trump would pursue a similar approach.

Trump’s victory in the US presidential election dominated Iranian newspapers on Thursday morning, with the reformist Sazandegi newspaper, under the headline “Trump’s Return,” saying that no decision-makers in Iran are comfortable with Trump’s win, as it could harm the country in several ways.

The paper, aligned with former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s faction, predicted that Trump might increase uncertainty, tighten sanctions, block Iran’s oil exports, and destabilize the economy, which would hurt ordinary Iranians.

The paper also suggested that the situation could change if the Iranian government adjusts its approach in response to Trump’s win but criticized Iran’s decision-makers for being slow to adapt.

It acknowledged that while Iran’s actions over the past 50 years have led all US administrations to view it as an enemy, the impact of the US president can vary.

The newspaper warned that Trump’s policies could lead to a bigger budget deficit, rising inflation, and a higher exchange rate, all of which would harm various sectors of Iran’s economy.

It noted that the country’s currency stability relies on oil revenues and foreign political relations.

With ongoing regional tensions and sanctions, any drop in oil revenues and difficulty accessing global markets could worsen Iran’s economic challenges, making it harder for the government to manage its budget and financial crises.

Analysts quoted by Sazandegi said Trump’s reelection might not lead to war but could result in harsher sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs without military action.

They also predicted that Russia might increase its pressure on Iran, potentially pushing the country toward a “Look East” strategy.

Reformist politician Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani wrote in Arman Emruz that Trump, as a businessman, would likely prefer economic cooperation with Iran over military conflict.

He suggested Trump might push for trade talks with Iran, opening the market to US companies, similar to European firms before the nuclear deal.

Hashemi noted that any conflict could drive up oil and gas prices, and as a businessman, Trump would likely avoid this. Instead, he would seek to strengthen economic ties between Iran and the US.

Hashemi also pointed out that the nuclear deal brought Iran significant economic benefits, including the return of $100 billion in frozen assets.

Arman Emruz warned that Trump’s return could escalate Middle East tensions and complicate relations with China and Russia over issues like Ukraine and Taiwan.

Etemad newspaper said that during his first term, Trump tried to turn Iran from a legitimate player into a pariah state, aiming to restrict and isolate it. It added that Trump’s return now is not in Iran’s interest.

The paper called for a “different policy” toward Trump. Reformist activist and former MP Mahmoud Sadeghi said it’s too early to assess Trump’s performance, especially since he won unexpectedly.

Sadeghi pointed out that for Iranians, the key concern is how Trump’s election will affect domestic issues, recalling his role in the strike that killed Gen. Soleimani five years ago.

He warned against falling into “self-sanctions” and urged Iran to address the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) rules to fight money laundering.

On regional policy, Sadeghi stressed the need for the government to act wisely to avoid being caught in the Netanyahu-Trump rivalry. He emphasized the importance of seizing every opportunity, no matter how small.

Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh compared Trump’s return to the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and dismissed the idea that Democrats and Republicans are the same, especially on the nuclear deal.

Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun, who is being touted as a possible candidate for the presidency, is a man with a tough mission following an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that relies heavily on his troops deploying in the south.

Aoun, 60, was set to retire last January after heading the army since 2017, but has had his mandate extended twice -- the last time on Thursday.

The army, widely respected and a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides, has held together despite periodic social strife, the latest war and a crushing five-year economic crisis.
A fragile ceasefire took effect on Wednesday, ending more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah that has killed thousands in Lebanon and caused mass displacements on both sides of the border.
Under its terms, the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers are to become the only armed presence in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah enjoys strong support and had been launching attacks on Israeli troops for months, and fighting them on the ground since late September.

The move averted a military power vacuum as the army, which boasts about 80,000 Lebanese servicemen, seeks to bolster its deployment in south Lebanon as part of the nascent truce.

But it will be a difficult task in an area long seen as Hezbollah territory, and risks upsetting the country's already delicate social balance as tensions run high over the war's course and devastation.

- 'Integrity' -

Aoun "has a reputation of personal integrity", said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut's Saint-Joseph University.

The army chief came into prominence after leading the army in a battle to drive out the ISIS group from a mountanous area along the Syrian border.

"Within the Lebanese army, he is perceived as someone who is dedicated... who has the national interest at heart, and who has been trying to consolidate this institution, which is the last non-sectarian institution still on its feet in the country," he told AFP.

Aoun has good relations with groups across the political spectrum, including with Hezbollah, as well as with various foreign countries.

Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center noted that "being the head of US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun has ties to the United States".

"While he maintained relations with everyone, Hezbollah-affiliated media often criticized him" for his US ties, he told AFP.

An international conference in Paris last month raised $200 million to support the armed forces.

The military has been hit hard by Lebanon's economic crisis, and at one point in 2020 said it had scrapped meat from the meals offered to on-duty soldiers due to rising food prices.

Aoun has also been floated by several politicians, parties and local media as a potential candidate for Lebanon's presidency, vacant for more than two years amid deadlock between allies of Hezbollah and its opponents, who accuse the group of seeking to impose its preferred candidate.

Aoun has not commented on the reports and largely refrains from making media statements.

- President? -

A Western diplomat told AFP that "everyone has recognized Aoun's track record at the head of the army".

"But the question is, can he transform himself into a politician?" said the diplomat, requesting anonymity to discuss politically sensitive matters.

Bitar said that "many, even those who respect him are opposed to his election as president, because he comes from the army mostly", noting a number of Lebanon's heads of state, including recently, were former army chiefs.

Most "left a bittersweet taste", Bitar said, noting any election of Aoun could also perpetuate the idea that the army chief "systematically becomes president".

This could end up weakening the military as it creates "an unhealthy relationship between political power and the army, which is supposed to remain neutral", he added.

Hage Ali said that the idea of Aoun's "candidacy for the presidency did not receive much enthusiasm from the major figures in the political class, even those who are opposed to Hezbollah".

Aoun, who speaks Arabic, French and English, hails from Lebanon's Christian community and has two children.

By convention, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim.

He is not related to the previous Lebanese president Michel Aoun -- also a former army chief -- although the two served together in the military.

Iran After Trump’s Win: Calls for New Approach, Challenge to Soleimani’s ‘Killer’