After Dealing it Heavy Military Blows, Israel Eyes Applying Economic, Popular Pressure on Hezbollah

 This picture shows the damage at the site of overnight Israeli airstrikes that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on November 9, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
This picture shows the damage at the site of overnight Israeli airstrikes that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on November 9, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
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After Dealing it Heavy Military Blows, Israel Eyes Applying Economic, Popular Pressure on Hezbollah

 This picture shows the damage at the site of overnight Israeli airstrikes that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on November 9, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
This picture shows the damage at the site of overnight Israeli airstrikes that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on November 9, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)

The first phase of Israel’s complete escalation against Hezbollah in Lebanon focused on targeting the Iran-backed party’s military positions and central command.

After assassinating its top leadership and allegedly destroying over 80 percent of its rocket arsenal, Israel is now shifting to applying pressure popular and economic pressure on Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s state National News Agency (NNA) had said that Israel has completely destroyed 37 villages and 40,000 houses in the South in its effort to create a three-kilometer-deep buffer zone and keep Hezbollah away from the border to allow the safe return of residents of northern Israel back to their homes.

The destruction has also reached historic sites of the South and eastern city of Baalbek. United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert tweeted on November 1: “Recent evacuation orders for the cities of Baalbek and Tyre forced tens of thousands of Lebanese to flee en masse.Worsening an already catastrophic mass displacement situation.”

“Ancient Phoenician cities steeped in history are in deep peril of being left in ruins. Lebanon’s cultural heritage must not become yet another casualty in this devastating conflict,” she warned.

NNA reported on Saturday that Israeli jets destroyed two of the most important heritage homes in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, weeks after they destroyed the city’s historic market. They also struck ancient Roman ruins in Tyre.

Since the beginning of its escalation, Israel has also laid waste to vast areas of Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold. Conflicting reports have emerged over the exact number of residential buildings that have been destroyed, but they are estimated in the thousands.

Dahiyeh has become a main arena for Israeli attacks, most notably the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasralla in late September and its targeting of rocket depots.

Israel carried out intense raids on Dahiyeh overnight on Friday, striking the areas of Burj al-Barajneh, Haret Hrek, and al-Hadath.

Head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber noted that after Israel’s failure to combat Hezbollah on the ground, it is now focusing on destruction and displacement, especially in areas where Hezbollah enjoys popular support, to prevent or delay the return of residents back to their homes.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that similar to the 2006 war, Israel has again failed at its ground invasion of Lebanon. Such a step will be very costly for it, so it is making do with incursions at five border points, where it has adopted its policy of destruction at a low cost and mainly focusing on areas where Hezbollah enjoys popular support.

Retired General Khaled Hamade said Israel has not completed its military goals in Lebanon. It is forging ahead in achieving its declared goal of destroying the party on all levels.

On the military level, it has destroyed the party’s command and control and assassinated top commanders. It also eliminated the majority of its arms and ammunition depots and a large part of its infrastructure in frontline border villages, he remarked.

Israel’s attacks on cities deep in Lebanon are part of its economic war on Hezbollah, whether it destroys homes, businesses and the party’s Qard al-Hassan banks, specifically in cities that are viewed as popular hubs of the party, such as Tyre, Nabatiyeh, Bint Jbeil and Baalbek.

Moreover, Hamade predicted that Israel will expand its attacks against Hezbollah to include its strongholds and areas of popular support in Syria.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.