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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.

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War Reaches Lebanon's Far North After Rare, Deadly Israeli Strike

First responders and locals search at the site of an Israeli strike in Ain Yaacoub, Akkar region, on November 12, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
First responders and locals search at the site of an Israeli strike in Ain Yaacoub, Akkar region, on November 12, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
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War Reaches Lebanon's Far North After Rare, Deadly Israeli Strike

First responders and locals search at the site of an Israeli strike in Ain Yaacoub, Akkar region, on November 12, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
First responders and locals search at the site of an Israeli strike in Ain Yaacoub, Akkar region, on November 12, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP

A day after Israeli warplanes flattened their building, Lebanese residents helped rescuers scour the rubble for survivors, still reeling from the rare strike in the country's far north.

The bombing killed at least eight people in Ain Yaacoub, one of the northernmost villages Israel has struck, far from Lebanon's war-ravaged southern border.

"They hit a building where more than 30 people lived without any evacuation warning," said Mustafa Hamza, who lives near the site of the strike. "It's an indescribable massacre."

Following Monday’s strike on Ain Yaacoub, residents joined rescuers, using bare hands to sift through dust and chunks of concrete, hoping to find survivors.

The health ministry said the death toll was expected to rise, AFP reported.

On the ground, people could be seen pulling body parts from the rubble in the morning, following a long night of search operations.

In near-darkness, rescuers had struggled to locate survivors, using mobile phone lights and car headlamps in a remote area where national grid power is scarce.

For years, Syrians fleeing war in their home country, along with more recently displaced Lebanese escaping Israeli strikes, sought refuge in the remote Akkar region near the Syrian border, once seen as a haven.

"The situation is dire. People are shocked," Hamza told AFP. "People from all over the region have come here to try to help recover the victims."

The village, inhabited mostly by Sunni Muslims and Christians, lies far from the strongholds of Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim movement.

A security source said Monday's air strike targeted a Hezbollah member who had relocated with his family to the building in Ain Yaacoub from south Lebanon.

Contacted by AFP, the Israeli military said the strike was aimed at "a Hezbollah terrorist" and specified that the missile used sought to minimise civilian harm.

Local official Rony al-Hage told AFP that it was the northernmost Israeli attack since the full-blown Israel-Hezbollah war erupted in September.

After Israel ramped up its campaign of air raids, it also sent ground troops into south Lebanon.

"The people who were in my house were my uncle, his wife, and my sisters... A Syrian woman and her children who had been living here for 10 years, were also killed," said Hashem Hashem, the son of the building's owner.

His relatives had fled Israel's onslaught on south Lebanon seeking a safe haven in the Akkar region more than a month ago, he said.

The Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon has displaced at least 1.3 million people, nearly 900,000 of them inside the country, the United Nations migration agency says.

Israeli strikes outside Hezbollah strongholds have repeatedly targeted buildings where displaced civilians lived, with Lebanese security officials often telling AFP the targets were Hezbollah operatives.

On Sunday, Lebanon said an Israeli strike killed 23 people, including seven children, in the village of Almat -- a rare strike north of the capital.

Earlier this month, authorities said an Israeli strike on a residential building killed at least 20 people in Barja, a town south of Beirut that is outside Hezbollah's area of influence.

The war erupted after nearly a year of cross-border exchanges of fire, launched by Hezbollah in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas following their October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war.

More than 3,240 people have been killed in Lebanon since the clashes began last year, according to the health ministry, with most of the deaths coming since late September.