Assad’s Fall Followed Years of Bloodshed and Division

Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP)
Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP)
TT

Assad’s Fall Followed Years of Bloodshed and Division

Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP)
Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP)

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's rule over Syria marks the culmination of a nearly 14-year uprising and a key moment in a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced half the population and drew in outside powers.

This is how it unfolded:

* 2011 - The first protests against Assad quickly spread across the country, and are met by security forces with a wave of arrests and shootings.

Some protesters take up guns and military units defect as the uprising becomes an armed revolt that will gain support from Western and Arab countries and Türkiye.

* 2012 - A bombing in Damascus is the first by al-Qaeda's new Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front, which gains in power and starts crushing groups with a nationalist ideology.

World powers meet in Geneva and agree on the need for a political transition, but their divisions on how to achieve it will foil years of UN-sponsored peace efforts.

Assad turns his air force on opposition strongholds, as the fighters gain ground and the war escalates with massacres on both sides.

* 2013 - Lebanon's Hezbollah helps Assad to victory at Qusayr, halting opposition momentum and showing the Iran-backed group's growing role in the conflict.

Washington has declared chemical weapons use a red line, but a gas attack on opposition-held eastern Ghouta near Damascus kills scores of civilians without triggering a US military response.

* 2014 - The ISIS group suddenly seizes Raqqa in the northeast and swathes more territory in Syria and Iraq.

The opposition figters in the Old City of Homs surrender, agreeing to move to an outer suburb - their first big defeat in a major urban area and a precursor to future "evacuation" deals.

Washington builds an anti-ISIS coalition and starts air strikes, helping Kurdish forces turn the extremist tide but creating friction with its ally Türkiye.

* 2015 - With better cooperation and more arms from abroad, opposition groups gain more ground and seize northwestern Idlib, but extremist militants are taking a bigger role.

Russia joins the war on Assad's side with air strikes that turn the conflict against the opposition for years to come.

* 2016 - Alarmed by Kurdish advances on the border, Türkiye launches an incursion with allied opposition groups, making a new zone of Turkish control.

The Syrian army and its allies defeat the opposition in Aleppo, seen at the time as Assad's biggest victory of the war.

The Nusra Front splits from al-Qaeda and starts trying to present itself in a moderate light, adopting a series of new names and eventually settling on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

* 2017 - Israel acknowledges air strikes against Hezbollah in Syria, aiming to degrade the growing strength of Iran and its allies.

US-backed, Kurdish-led forces defeat ISIS in Raqqa. That offensive, and a rival one by the Syrian army, drive the extremist group from nearly all its land.

* 2018 - The Syrian army recaptures eastern Ghouta, before quickly retaking the other opposition enclaves in central Syria, and then the opposition’s southern bastion of Daraa.

* 2019 - ISIS loses its last scrap of territory in Syria. The US decides to keep some troops in the country to prevent attacks on its Kurdish allies.

* 2020 - Russia backs a government offensive that ends with a ceasefire with Türkiye that freezes most front lines. Assad holds most territory and all main cities, appearing deeply entrenched. The opposition holds the northwest. A Türkiye-backed force holds a border strip. Kurdish-led forces control the northeast.

* 2023 - The Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 triggers fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, ultimately reducing the group's presence in Syria and fatally undermining Assad.

* 2024 – The opposition launches a new assault on Aleppo. With Assad's allies focused elsewhere his army quickly collapses. Eight days after the fall of Aleppo the opposition fighters have taken most major cities and enter Damascus, driving Assad from power.



Gebran Bassil: From Joseph Aoun’s Fierce Opponent to Supporter

MP Gebran Bassil and members of his bloc after naming Nawaf Salam as prime minister. (Reuters)
MP Gebran Bassil and members of his bloc after naming Nawaf Salam as prime minister. (Reuters)
TT

Gebran Bassil: From Joseph Aoun’s Fierce Opponent to Supporter

MP Gebran Bassil and members of his bloc after naming Nawaf Salam as prime minister. (Reuters)
MP Gebran Bassil and members of his bloc after naming Nawaf Salam as prime minister. (Reuters)

Head of Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil has demonstrated his ability to change his stances and adapt to changes in the country.

This was clearly shown when he backed Joseph Aoun’s election as president when he had initially been a staunch opponent of the former army commander.

Bassil had accused Aoun of being “disloyal” and of “violating the law” when he was army chief. This animosity led the FPM leader to object to his running for president, saying it was a constitutional violation.

However, Bassil quickly changed his stance and backed Aoun, because his “movement’s natural position is by the president.” The MP also said Aoun’s inaugural speech resonates with the FPM and that it was keen to see his pledges materialize.

The change in stance reflects the FPM’s reluctance to stand alone in the opposition as Lebanon approaches parliamentary elections next year. As it stands, the FPM has lost the majority of its allies, including Hezbollah.

Bassil recently acknowledged the losses, saying: “The FPM must get used to being in an independent position, without any allies or enemies.”

The FPM had won 18 seats in the 2022 elections. The number has now dropped to 13 after the resignation and sacking of some members of the FPM.

Later, the FPM would also make a last-minute change in throwing its support behind Nawaf Salam’s appointment as prime minister, when it was initially reluctant to do so.

Hezbollah viewed the change as “spiteful”, describing it as an “ambush” and accusing others of attempting to exclude it from power.

Member of the FPM’s Strong Lebanon bloc Jimmy Jabbour explained that Bassil opted to support Aoun because “of our conviction of the importance of the position of the presidency.”

“We must respect the position by standing by the president,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The FPM didn’t have a specific candidate for the presidency, he remarked, adding that Bassil “did not want to run for post at the moment.”

The MP said that a “new positive chapter has been opened” and the FPM is eager to ensure that Aoun’s term is a success.

It does not want to squander the international support to Lebanon amid the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the changes in the region, he added.

On whether the FPM will be represented in the new government, Jabbour said it was “only natural” that the blocs that supported Salam’s appointment be present in the new cabinet.

“At the end of the day, however, the formation of the government lies in the hands of the president and prime minister,” he stated.

Moreover, he stressed that were it not for the FPM’s support, Salam would not have been named PM.

Former FPM member lawyer Antoine Nasrallah said he was not surprised when Bassil switched to supporting Aoun’s presidency.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he added: “Throughout his political career, Bassil has been known to take contradictory positions and to be either hostile or friendly with various political forces, depending in whether they serve his interests and agendas.”

“So, we were expecting him to behave the same way with Joseph Aoun,” he noted.

“Bassil’s ultimate goal is the presidency, and he will do the impossible to achieve it,” he said.

Furthermore, Nasrallah explained that Bassil will “shower Aoun’s term with support and affection because he is aware that Aoun will eliminate his popularity ... should he remain hostile to him.”

“The FPM has become a political party that relies on clientelism. It believes that it can still have a piece of the cake because it is fully aware that a move to the opposition will mean its end,” he added.

Former President Michel Aoun – Bassil's father-in-law – had named Jospeh Aoun as army commander in 2017. The latter had always been viewed as loyal to the then president.

People who were closely following Joseph’s Aoun appointment told Asharq Al-Awsat that Bassil had been vehemently against it, but the president insisted.

After the appointment, the president tried to ease the tensions between the army chief and his son-in-law.

During the October 2019 anti-government protests, Bassil was very critical of the army commander because he was allowing the demonstrators to block roads, claiming he was even following American orders and that he had turned against the president.