Qusayr: Hezbollah’s Syrian ‘Fortress’ Collapses without Resistance

Mourners carry the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Mourners carry the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Qusayr: Hezbollah’s Syrian ‘Fortress’ Collapses without Resistance

Mourners carry the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Mourners carry the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on December 6, 2024. (AFP)

As the Syrian opposition swept through the Homs province last week, hours before they ousted President Bashar al-Assad, focus shifted to the Qusayr region, the Lebanese Hezbollah party’s stronghold in Syria.

Observers expected a fierce battle between the opposition and Hezbollah over the region, but instead the regime forces abandoned their posts, leaving the party fighters to fend off the advancing forces on their own. Instead of putting up a fight, the fighters retreated to Lebanon and Qusayr was seized by the opposition.

The residents of Qusayr have waited 11 years to learn what happened to their homes from which they were forced out of by Hezbollah and the regime. Entire villages in the region have been razed to the ground.

A source from the Syrian opposition told Asharq Al-Awsat that the regime and Hezbollah effectively surrendered Qusayr.

“The fighters who advanced on the region hail from Qusayr. The operation to seize the region didn’t take more than two hours,” it added, saying no one put up a fight because the majority of the Hezbollah fighters who were deployed there either fled to Lebanon or surrendered to the revolutionaries.

Little news has emerged about the thousands of Hezbollah fighters who had taken up base in Qusayr and its countryside. The region was the backbone for Hezbollah’s weapons’ smuggling to Lebanon.

In recordings circulated on social media, Hezbollah fighters could be heard saying that the Damascus regime has “betrayed and abandoned them on the field.”

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem had declared on Friday that the party “would not allow the fall of Syria in the hands of armed factions again,” adding that it was ready to support and defend it.

The opposition source revealed that hundreds of Hezbollah fighters had indeed headed to Qusayr to defend it as the anti-regime fighters advanced in Homs, but they were forced to flee.

“The influence of Hezbollah and all of Iran’s militias in Syria is over,” declared the source.

After Assad’s downfall, thousands of Syrians from Homs and Qusayr who were displaced to Lebanon, headed back to their hometowns to check on their properties.

A source close to Hezbollah told Asharq Al-Awsat that the party “had fought alongside the Syrian state and people.”

“If what happened falls in the favor the Syrian people, then so be it, that is their choice. The party was never at war with or the enemy of the Syrian people. Rather, it was fighting terrorist and takfiri groups that were terrorizing the Syrians,” it charged.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.