What Is the ‘Shiite Duo’s’ Problem with Salam’s Appointment as Lebanon’s PM?

Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
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What Is the ‘Shiite Duo’s’ Problem with Salam’s Appointment as Lebanon’s PM?

Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)

Several observers have questioned the strong opposition by the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement of the appointment of Nawaf Salam as Lebanon’s prime minister.

Head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc MP Mohammed Raad went so far on Monday to declare that the party had been “deceived with the aim of creating division and exclusion” in the country.

Salam was named prime minister on Monday after earning 84 votes from parliamentary blocs. His predecessor Najib Mikati received nine, while the Shiite duo abstained from naming anyone.

Back in 2023, the duo had agreed to a so-called “French initiative” that suggested the election of Hezbollah and Amal’s candidate Suleiman Franjieh as president in exchange for Salam to be named prime minister.

Salam, who in February 2024 was named head of the International Court of Justice, boasts a long history of opposing Israel, which should have earned him Hezbollah’s strong support. He resigned from the post after being designated prime minister.

Figures close to the duo said that one of the issues Hezbollah has with Salam is that since the October 2019 anti-government protests in Lebanon, he has been viewed as the opposition and West’s candidate for the position of prime minister.

Political anlayst Dr. Kassem Kassir told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah and Amal don’t view Salam as a rival as they had agreed to his nomination in line with the French initiative.

The problem, however, lies in how he was nominated. He explained that internal and foreign forces had reached an agreement that would see Joseph Aoun elected president and Mikati named prime minister, he said.

However, it appears that some sort of internal and foreign “coup” had taken place and that led to Salam’s nomination and appointment, he remarked.

On whether the dispute can be resolved, Kassir said “positive stances” during the government formation process may tackle the issue.

“The Shiite duo fear that there may be an agenda aimed at excluding its influential role in political life,” he added.

A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (L) speaking with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (R) during a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)

Hezbollah had warned on Monday that Salam’s government may be “unconstitutional” should it fail to meet its demands and aspirations.

Raad said: “We have the right to demand the formation of a constitutional government. A government that violates joint coexistence is not legal.”

Constitutional expert Dr. Saeed Malek said “constitutionality” is one of the foundations of Lebanon’s political system.

The constitution clearly states that there can be no legitimacy to an authority that violates mutual coexistence, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

However, the issue of “constitutionality” must not be brought up when a certain party wants to deliver a political message and prevent the remaining parties from building a state and practicing their rights, he stressed.

“Yes, the Shiite duo does represent Shiites in Lebanon, but they don’t represent all Lebanese Shiites. The community boasts figures who enrich the Shiite sect, so a government can be formed with them,” Kassir said.

“A government would be unconstitutional if not a single Shiite figure is represented in it,” he underlined.

On whether the government needs the vote of confidence of the Shiite MPs, he said the constitution does not stipulate that a cabinet needs the vote of all segments. “It simply says that it needs the vote of confidence,” he added.

“At the end of the day, the issue of ‘constitutionality’ is a right, but one must not exploit this right with the aim to obstruct state functioning and the formation of a government,” Malek stressed.

“No party has the right to obstruct a new presidential term under the pretext of ‘constitutionality’,” he stated.



Syrians Integrated in Germany Face Uncertainty Over Return

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Anas Modamani, one of Germany’s most well-known Syrian refugees (Getty Images)
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Anas Modamani, one of Germany’s most well-known Syrian refugees (Getty Images)
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Syrians Integrated in Germany Face Uncertainty Over Return

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Anas Modamani, one of Germany’s most well-known Syrian refugees (Getty Images)
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Anas Modamani, one of Germany’s most well-known Syrian refugees (Getty Images)

Twelve years after his famous selfie with then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Anas Modamani, one of Germany’s most well-known Syrian refugees, appears at ease in his adopted homeland.

At the time, Modamani had no idea who Merkel was when he snapped the photo during her visit to the asylum center where he was staying. Today, however, he feels as deeply connected to Germany as he does to his homeland, Syria.

Modamani, like many Syrians who fled to Germany after the 2011 uprising, faces a tough decision: stay in Germany or return to Syria.

With hopes of a post-Assad era, Modamani, originally from Daraya near Damascus, plans to visit his family in Syria and help rebuild their home.

“I want to split my time between Germany and Syria and start projects in both countries,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Damascus is the most beautiful city on earth, but I love Germany, and Berlin is my second home.”

Modamani has fully embraced life in Germany, learning the language, gaining citizenship, joining the workforce, and building a relationship with Anna, a Ukrainian woman.

His German passport makes it easier to plan trips back to Syria without worrying about losing his residency or legal status in Germany.

Modamani is among nearly 260,000 Syrian refugees who have obtained German citizenship. However, more than 700,000 Syrians in Germany remain on asylum or temporary protection permits—status that could be revoked if conditions in Syria improve.

The shifting situation in Damascus has left Syrian refugees and German authorities in limbo. Decisions on 47,000 migration applications from Syrians have been paused as officials wait for more clarity.

Germany’s asylum policies were based on fears of war and persecution. With those fears easing after the fall of Assad, the legal basis for granting protection may no longer exist.

The uncertainty has sparked political debate. Some politicians, including Social Democrats in the ruling government, have called for changes to asylum rules.

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser suggested keeping refugees who are integrated or employed while deporting others.

Talk of deporting Syrian refugees in Germany seems tied to the upcoming February 23 elections.

While temporary residency permits can be revoked, Syria must first be declared “safe and stable” by the Foreign Ministry—a process that could take years.

Even with delays in Germany labeling Syria “safe,” most Syrian refugees show little interest in returning. Before Assad’s fall, 94% said they wanted to stay, according to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees.

The longer refugees live in Germany, the stronger their ties become. Many arrived over five years ago, with some having spent a decade in the country.

Siamand Osman, a Syrian Kurdish refugee from Qamishli, has been in Germany for 11 years. He learned the language, gained citizenship, and built a life, even though most of his family remains in Syria. For now, he has no plans to go back.

Osman told Asharq Al-Awsat that the situation in Kurdish areas of Syria is still unstable.

“I want to return—my family is there—but I hope all sides in Syria can agree and bring peace to our region,” he said.

Osman’s biggest fear is the return of war.

“Imagine leaving everything behind, selling my belongings, and going back to Syria, only to have the war start again and force me to flee once more,” he says. Despite this, he is determined to return when the situation improves.

Economic instability is another key factor contributing to Syrians’ reluctance to return home. Alaa Muhrez, who arrived in Germany in 2015, explained that the economic situation in Syria plays a significant role in her decision.

She told Asharq Al-Awsat that she “rebuilt her life from scratch.”

After learning the language and training in her profession as an accountant, Muhrez is now working in her field and has gained German citizenship.

Despite her strong optimism for Syria’s future, Muhrez, originally from Homs, remains cautious about the situation there and the country’s potential trajectory in the coming years.

She fears leaving her job and home in Berlin, only to return to Syria and struggle to find suitable employment.

For Syrian families, the decision to stay or return is even more difficult. Many arrived with children who have forgotten Arabic and spent years learning German.

Anas Fahd, from Sweida, came to Germany almost three years ago with his family and teenage son. He still holds a temporary protection permit and works as an electrical engineer.

“It’s too early to decide about returning,” Fahd told Asharq Al-Awsat. His son has been learning German for a year and is doing well in school in Berlin. “It would be hard to send him back to Syria, where he’d have to waste another year relearning Arabic.”

Even newcomers like Basel Hussein, who arrived in Berlin on the day Assad fell, have no plans to go back. Hussein, who paid over 13,000 euros to be smuggled into Germany, says he won’t return now.

“The situation is still unclear with new decisions every day,” Hussein said. “I’d rather start fresh in Germany than return to an uncertain future in Syria.”

It’s not only Syrians who are hesitant to return—many Germans worry about losing a key part of the workforce, especially those filling important roles.

Over 5,000 Syrian doctors work in German hospitals, making them the largest group of foreign doctors. Many others work in sectors with labor shortages, like nursing, construction, and hospitality.

It takes an average of seven years for Syrians to enter the labor market as they learn the language and validate their qualifications. Syrians are filling vital roles, but unemployment remains high, particularly for women.

Unions representing doctors and workers have warned against calls for quick deportations, fearing it could harm the labor market.

Manfred Lucha, health minister in Baden-Württemberg, where many Syrian doctors work, warned that if they leave, it would create a huge gap in the healthcare sector. The state’s hospital association also said losing Syrian healthcare workers would be a significant blow.