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Russia and Iran Have a Troubled History Despite their Current Alliance

FILE - In this photo released by the Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops travel in a plane from Rasht in northern Iran, to Kermanshah in western Iran, during a drill on Jan. 5, 2025. (Hossein Zohrevand/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)
FILE - In this photo released by the Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops travel in a plane from Rasht in northern Iran, to Kermanshah in western Iran, during a drill on Jan. 5, 2025. (Hossein Zohrevand/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)
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Russia and Iran Have a Troubled History Despite their Current Alliance

FILE - In this photo released by the Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops travel in a plane from Rasht in northern Iran, to Kermanshah in western Iran, during a drill on Jan. 5, 2025. (Hossein Zohrevand/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)
FILE - In this photo released by the Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops travel in a plane from Rasht in northern Iran, to Kermanshah in western Iran, during a drill on Jan. 5, 2025. (Hossein Zohrevand/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting his Iranian counterpart Friday for the signing of a broad pact between Moscow and Tehran.
The Kremlin says the “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement between Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will take their cooperation to a new level.
The signing comes ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine and take a tougher stance on Iran.
What to know about the Russian-Iranian relationship:
Historic Rivals Become Allies
Russia and Iran fought wars in the 18th and 19th centuries, with the Russian Empire capturing broad territories in the Caucasus and the Caspian region previously controlled by Persian rulers. In the early 20th century, Russian troops occupied large parts of northern Iran, but the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution ended their presence. In World War II, the Soviet Union and Britain invaded Iran, which still evokes painful memories in Tehran.
Tensions ran high in the Cold War, when Tehran was a US ally under the Shah of Iran. After his ouster in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leader Khomeini castigated the US as the “Great Satan,” and denounced the USSR as the “Lesser Satan.”
Russia-Iran ties warmed after the USSR's demise in 1991. Moscow became an important trade partner and a key supplier of weapons and high technologies to Iran, which faced isolation from sweeping international sanctions.
Russia built Iran’s first nuclear power plant in the port of Bushehr that became operational in 2013. The next year, Moscow signed a contract to build two more nuclear reactors.
Russia was part of the 2015 deal between Iran and six nuclear powers offering sanctions relief for Tehran in exchange for curbing its atomic program and opening it to broader international scrutiny. Moscow offered political support to Iran when the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement during Trump’s first term.
Allies In Syrian Civil War In Bolstering Assad
After a civil war in Syria erupted in 2011, Russia and Iran pooled efforts to shore up Bashar Assad's government against the Türkiye-backed opposition seeking his ouster. In 2015, Russia launched a military campaign in Syria, joining Iran and its proxies, that helped Assad re-establish control in most of the country.
With Moscow preoccupied with fighting in Ukraine, and Iran facing challenges from Israel, they failed to prevent a swift collapse of Assad’s rule last month after a lightning opposition offensive.
How Russia And Iran Cooperate
The West alleges that in 2022, Russia and Iran signed a $1.7 billion deal for Shahed drones after Putin sent troops into Ukraine, and the US also believes Iran has transferred short-range ballistic missiles, but neither Moscow nor Tehran ever acknowledged the actions.
Iranian leaders give strong political support to Putin, echoing his arguments for justifying the conflict.
Tehran likely hopes to secure financial and defense promises from Moscow for its tattered economy after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal and amid increasing pressure in the Middle East.
Assad’s downfall was a major blow to Tehran's self-described “Axis of Resistance” in the region after Israel’s punishing offensives against two militant groups backed by Iran -– Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel attacked Iran directly twice, and Israeli officials claimed the raids took out Tehran's Russia-supplied S-300 air defense systems.
Iran wants Russian long-range air defense systems and other weapons. It has hoped to get Russia's advanced Su-35 fighter jets to upgrade its aging fleet hobbled by sanctions, but Moscow only provided a few Yak-130 trainer jets in 2023.
Trump's policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran heralds more trouble for Tehran. This month, he left open the possibility of the US preemptive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, but some officials increasingly suggest it could pursue atomic weapons.
Deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty covers all areas -– from trade and military cooperation to science, education and culture. He dismissed any link with Trump’s inauguration, saying the signing was planned long ago.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described it as a “fully comprehensive treaty that takes into account all dimensions of the relationship, with a particularly strong economic aspect.”
He told state TV that while it covers defense and security cooperation, “this is a complete and comprehensive treaty, not one focused on a specific purpose, such as a military alliance.”
Healing Rifts, Lifting Suspicions
Despite the official rhetoric, the nations' troubled history makes many Iranians suspicious about Russia. Kremlin efforts to balance courting Tehran while staying friendly with Israel adds to the uneasiness.
There are signs of growing discontent about Russia within Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, a paramilitary force answerable only to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Last week, an audio recording leaked in Iranian media with a Guard general blaming Russia for woes Iran suffered in Syria.

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For Iran, Flexing Control Over Hormuz Is a New Deterrent

Female members of Iran's Basij militia are seen during a government rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei. (The New York Times)
Female members of Iran's Basij militia are seen during a government rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei. (The New York Times)
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For Iran, Flexing Control Over Hormuz Is a New Deterrent

Female members of Iran's Basij militia are seen during a government rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei. (The New York Times)
Female members of Iran's Basij militia are seen during a government rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei. (The New York Times)

Mark Mazzetti, Adam Entous, Julian E. Barnes*

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.

It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its own geography, reported the New York Times.

Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples.

It has upended war planning in the United States and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.

The US-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.

Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint for its hardline theocratic government to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.

“Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence agency and now a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “You cannot beat geography.”

In several social media posts on Friday, US President Donald Trump said that the strait, which in one post he called the “Strait of Iran,” was “completely open” to shipping.

Iran’s foreign minister made a similar declaration. On Saturday, however, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the waterway remained closed, suggesting a divide among Iranian military and civilians on the issue during negotiations to end the war.

Whereas just the prospect of sea mines is enough to scare off commercial shipping, Iran retains far more precise means of control: attack drones and short-range missiles.

American military and intelligence officials estimate that, after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40% of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60% of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.

A central goal of the US-led military campaign in Iran is now reopening the strait, which was open when the war began. It is a precarious position for the United States, and its adversaries have taken notice.

“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the country’s security council, wrote on social media last week.

Iran’s control over the strait forced Trump to announce a naval blockade of his own, and this week the US Navy began forcing cargo ships into Iranian ports after they transited the waterway.

Iran responded with anger, but also taunting. “The Strait of Hormuz isn’t social media. If someone blocks you, you can’t just block them back,” one Iranian diplomatic outpost, which has posted snarky messages throughout the war, wrote on X in response to Trump’s move.

The dispute over the strait has been the focus of numerous AI-generated videos depicting American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.

Still, the impact of the American blockade has been real.

Seaborne trade accounts for roughly 90% of Iran’s economic output — approximately $340 million per day — and that flow in recent days has largely ground to a halt.

Iran considers the blockade an act of war and has threatened to attack it. But so far it has not, nor has the United States tried during the current ceasefire to reduce Iran’s grip over the strait when the conflict finally ends.

“It may be that both countries see there is a real window to have negotiations” and don’t want to escalate the conflict right now, Admiral Kevin Donegan, who once commanded the US Navy’s fleet with responsibility for the Middle East and is now retired, said during a seminar hosted by the Middle East Institute this week.

Iran tried to block the Strait of Hormuz once before, mining it and the Gulf during the conflict with Iraq during the 1980s.

But mine warfare is dangerous, and decades later Iran has effectively harnessed missile and drone technology to threaten both commercial and military maritime traffic.

While the US and Israeli war significantly damaged Iran’s weapons manufacturing capability, Iran has preserved enough of its missiles, launchers and one-way attack drones to put shipping in the strait at risk.

US intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials said that Iran has about 40% of its prewar arsenal of drones.

Those drones have proved to be a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by American warships, commercial tankers have few defenses.

Iran also has ample supplies of missiles and missile launchers.

At the time of the ceasefire, Iran had access to about half its missile launchers. In the days that immediately followed, it dug out about 100 systems that had been buried inside caves and bunkers, bringing its stockpile of launchers back up to about 60% of its prewar level.

Iran is also digging out its supply of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from American attacks on its bunkers and depots. When that work is done, Iran could reclaim as much as 70% of its prewar arsenal, according to some American estimates.

Officials note that the counts of Iran’s weapon stocks are not precise. Intelligence assessments offer a broad look at how much power Iran retains.

But while estimates of Iran’s missile stockpiles differ, there is agreement among officials that Iran has enough weaponry to halt shipping in the future.

Iran’s government chose not to block the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign that United States eventually joined to hit deeply buried nuclear sites.

Citrinowicz, the former Israeli official, said that decision probably reflected the cautious approach of slain supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who may have been concerned that blocking the strait could have led other countries to join the military campaign against Iran.

Khamenei was killed during the first day of the current war, a move that signaled to Iranian officials that American and Israeli goals for this conflict were far more expansive.

Iran “saw the June war as an Israeli war for their own strategic objectives,” Citrinowicz said. “This is a regime change war.”

*The New York Times

Features

Allies Fear a Rushed US–Iran Framework Deal Could Backfire, Leaving Technical Deadlock

Commuters drive past a giant billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz along a busy street in Tehran on April 19, 2026. (AFP)
Commuters drive past a giant billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz along a busy street in Tehran on April 19, 2026. (AFP)
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Allies Fear a Rushed US–Iran Framework Deal Could Backfire, Leaving Technical Deadlock

Commuters drive past a giant billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz along a busy street in Tehran on April 19, 2026. (AFP)
Commuters drive past a giant billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz along a busy street in Tehran on April 19, 2026. (AFP)

European allies fear an inexperienced US negotiating team is pushing for a swift, headline-grabbing framework deal with Iran that could entrench rather than resolve deeper problems, diplomats with past experience dealing with Tehran said.

They worry Washington, eager to claim a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump, could lock in a superficial agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, then struggle through months or years of technically complex follow-on talks.

"The concern isn’t that there won’t be an agreement,” said a senior European diplomat, one of eight who spoke to Reuters who have previously worked on the nuclear file or continue to do so. "It's that there will be a bad initial agreement that creates endless downstream problems.”

Responding to a series of questions from Reuters, ranging from negotiating style and team to objectives and the potential dangers of a quick deal, the White House rejected the criticism.

"President Trump has a proven track record of achieving good deals on behalf of the United States and the American people, and he will only accept one that puts America first," spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.

2015 NUCLEAR DEAL ABANDONED BY TRUMP

Diplomats from France, Britain and Germany — which began negotiating with Iran in 2003 — say they have been sidelined.

From 2013 to 2015, the three worked with the United States to secure a deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, known as the Joint ‌Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Trump withdrew ‌from the accord - the signature foreign policy agreement of his predecessor Barack Obama - in 2018, during his first term, calling ‌it "horribly one-sided".

After ⁠40 days of ⁠airstrikes, US and Iranian negotiators opened talks in Islamabad earlier this month, again focused on the familiar trade-off of nuclear restrictions for economic relief. There were some signs in the Pakistani capital on Sunday of preparations for a resumption of face-to-face negotiations.

Diplomats say deep mistrust and sharply different negotiating styles raise the risk of a fragile framework neither side can sustain politically.

"It took us 12 years and immense technical work,” said Federica Mogherini, who coordinated the talks from 2013 to 2015. "Does anyone seriously think this can be done in 21 hours?"

HIGH-LEVEL DEAL, LIGHT ON DETAIL

The diplomats said a skeletal agreement may be achievable, built around a nuclear package and an economic package. But they warned the nuclear component remained by far the most contentious.

"The Americans think you agree on three or four points in a five-page document and that's it, but on the nuclear file, every clause opens the door to a dozen more disputes," ⁠a second European diplomat said.

Talks are focusing on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%, material ‌that could be used for several nuclear weapons if further enriched.

The favored option is "downblending" inside Iran under International Atomic ‌Energy Agency supervision. Another is a hybrid approach, with some material shipped abroad.

Türkiye and France have been mentioned as possible destinations. Shipping material to the United States would be politically difficult for ‌Iran, while Russia is unattractive to Washington, two of the diplomats said.

Even those options would require lengthy negotiations over recovering material possibly buried by airstrikes, verifying quantities and transporting ‌it securely.

Iran has also floated storing material abroad for a fixed period.

"Whatever happens now is only a starting point,” said a Western diplomat previously involved in nuclear talks. "That’s why the 2015 JCPOA ran to 160 pages."

Beyond stockpiles lies the deeper dispute over Iran’s right to enrich uranium at all. Trump has publicly pushed for zero enrichment, while Iran insists it has the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes and denies seeking a bomb.

One possible compromise would be a temporary moratorium followed by resumption at very low levels under strict conditions.

Europeans stressed that a central role for the ‌IAEA, including intrusive verification and unrestricted access, was essential.

"A negotiation with Iran is meticulous and subtle: every word matters," said Gérard Araud, France’s chief negotiator from 2006 to 2009. “That’s not something you rush.”

SANCTIONS RELIEF AND FACE-SAVING

The economic track focuses on lifting ⁠sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

In the short term, ⁠Iran wants access to limited frozen funds overseas. Broader sanctions relief would come later and require European buy-in, diplomats said, as Iranian leaders see European trade as critical over the long term.

Officials say Washington is again separating an agreement in principle from its painstaking follow-up, an approach they say risks misreading Iranian political culture.

"These talks aren't a real-estate deal settled with a handshake,” said a senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran, referring to the background of Trump's main negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. "They involve sequencing, sanctions relief and reciprocal nuclear steps.”

The war has hardened Iran’s stance, diplomats said, showing it can absorb pressure even as it seeks financial relief.

Tehran’s top demand is a non-aggression guarantee after being attacked by the US and Israel during earlier diplomatic efforts.

The concern is shared in the region. Gulf states want Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxy activities addressed, while Israel is pushing for maximal constraints.

Iran, by contrast, sees its remaining missile capability as a vital deterrent after the war degraded its forces.

Diplomats say demanding total abandonment would be unrealistic without broader security guarantees.

A senior Trump administration official said Washington’s redlines included ending uranium enrichment, dismantling major enrichment facilities, recovering highly enriched uranium and accepting a broader de-escalation framework involving regional allies.

EUROPE ON THE SIDELINES — BUT STILL RELEVANT

European officials acknowledge they sidelined themselves in part by pushing last year to reimpose UN sanctions and by designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization.

But they say their decision to stay out of the conflict has not gone unnoticed in Tehran.

"There’s simply not enough expertise in this US team,” said one European official, noting that roughly 200 diplomats, financial and nuclear experts were involved in the 2015 talks. "We’ve worked on this file for two decades.”

A White House official said officials from the National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department were present in Islamabad and remained involved.

Features

Iranians Expect No Post-War Respite Under Military Rule

People walk past closed shops at the nearly empty traditional main bazaar during Iranian New Year, or Nowruz, holidays in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 29, 2026. (AP)
People walk past closed shops at the nearly empty traditional main bazaar during Iranian New Year, or Nowruz, holidays in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 29, 2026. (AP)
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Iranians Expect No Post-War Respite Under Military Rule

People walk past closed shops at the nearly empty traditional main bazaar during Iranian New Year, or Nowruz, holidays in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 29, 2026. (AP)
People walk past closed shops at the nearly empty traditional main bazaar during Iranian New Year, or Nowruz, holidays in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 29, 2026. (AP)

Iranians striving to maintain a semblance of normal life after weeks of US and Israeli bombing and a deadly crackdown on protesters in January remain daunted by the future as damage from airstrikes and internet cuts take a toll.

With Iran and the US wrangling over a truce extension and an agreement to end the conflict, shops, restaurants and government offices have stayed open. On sunny spring mornings, city parks are busy with family picnics and young people playing sports while others gather at streetside cafes.

But behind such peaceful scenes, Iran's economy is in tatters and people are fearful of a new government clampdown and angry about the destructive airstrikes. The difficulties that spurred mass unrest in January look likely to worsen.

Talks in Islamabad this month - the first direct negotiations between the United States and Iran in years - ended without an agreement. But with the current fragile ceasefire due to end on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his envoys would head to Pakistan and were prepared to hold more talks.

FEAR OF INCREASED PRESSURE AS THEOCRACY ENDURES

"The war will end, but that’s when our real problems with the system begin. I’m very afraid that if the regime reaches an agreement with the United States, it will increase pressure on ordinary people," a 37-year-old named Fariba, who took part in the January unrest, told Reuters by phone from ‌Iran.

"People have not ‌forgotten the regime’s crimes in January, and the system has not forgotten that people do not want it. They are holding ‌back now ⁠because they don’t ⁠want to fight on a domestic front as well," she said.

The bombing has killed thousands, according to official death tolls, including many at a school on the first day of the conflict.

It has also destroyed infrastructure across the country, raising the prospect of mass job layoffs. Iran's revolutionary theocracy looks as entrenched as ever after surviving weeks of intense bombardment and asserting control over global oil supplies.

"Iranians understood that this war is not going to topple the regime, but at the same time, it's going to make their lives much worse economically," said Omid Memarian, Iran analyst at independent US-based think tank Dawn.

"The military is not going to put down their guns. They are going to stay and it's going to be bloody. It's going to be costly, with no prospect for a better future," he added.

In well-heeled north Tehran this week, Reuters interviewed young Iranians on camera about the war and their concerns. Foreign media in Iran operate under guidelines set ⁠by the Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry, which regulates press activity and permissions.

Mehtab, who works at a private company and asked ‌not to use her family name, said things could be worse for Iranians given the impact of war and years ‌of sanctions and isolation.

"I do not want to say that it is normal, but as an Iranian with such a history, it is not very bad. We can live with it," she ‌said.

That view was not shared by Iranians Reuters reached by phone. They voiced far greater anxiety while speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals.

"Yes, people are enjoying the ceasefire ‌for now — but what comes next? What are we supposed to do with a regime that has become even more powerful?” said Sara, 27, a private teacher who declined to give her family name or location.

IRANIANS LEFT WITH FEW OPTIONS

Thousands were killed when the authorities crushed weeks of protests in January, prompting Trump to say he would come to the aid of Iranians.

Iran's permanent mission to the UN in Geneva did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story. It has previously blamed the violence in January on "armed terrorists" linked to Israel and the United States.

While Trump and Israeli ‌Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both said early in the war that they hoped it would topple the ruling clerics, that goal faded as the bombing continued.

Anger over the crackdown meant that many Iranians wanted new rulers, but soon soured on the ⁠war, Memarian said.

"I think it became more ⁠clear for many Iranians that this war is not designed, or is not aimed, at helping the Iranian people," he said.

Neither Mehtab nor other women sitting at a cafe in north Tehran were wearing the hijab, a head covering that was mandatory for decades in Iran. Looser public dress codes are the result of mass protests in 2022, including over women's rights, which the authorities violently suppressed while tacitly backing off from enforcement of some dress rules.

Independent UK-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam said it became clear in January that authorities would not back down again easily, and later that they would not crumble under military attack.

The war had left Iranians even more polarized than before, but with few options. "This is a moment of reckoning for Iranians because, at the end of the day, Iranians, especially Iranians inside the country, realize that they need to live together. There is nowhere to go," he said.

'FIRE UNDER THE ASHES'

Many fear repression could now worsen.

"On the streets, women are going around without the hijab, but it’s unclear whether these kind of freedoms will continue after a deal with the United States. Pressure will 100% increase, because once there is peace with Washington, the regime will no longer face the same external pressure," Arjang, a 43-year-old father of two, told Reuters by phone from north Tehran.

The January protests brought no tangible change to people's lives, while leading the authorities to severely restrict internet use - a blow to both businesses and ordinary people desperate for information during war.

“Even the smallest things, like connecting with our family members who live outside the country, are impossible,” said Faezeh, 47, as she played volleyball with friends in a north Tehran park.

Popular frustration may start to mount after the war ends and people are less afraid of being labelled as traitors, said Memarian.

"There is a lot of fire under the ashes," he said.