Report: Assad’s Exiled Spy Chief and Billionaire Cousin Plot Syrian Uprisings from Russia

A poster of Bashar al-Assad is seen on the ground at the presidential palace in Damascus after he fled Syria on December 8, 2024. (AP)
A poster of Bashar al-Assad is seen on the ground at the presidential palace in Damascus after he fled Syria on December 8, 2024. (AP)
TT

Report: Assad’s Exiled Spy Chief and Billionaire Cousin Plot Syrian Uprisings from Russia

A poster of Bashar al-Assad is seen on the ground at the presidential palace in Damascus after he fled Syria on December 8, 2024. (AP)
A poster of Bashar al-Assad is seen on the ground at the presidential palace in Damascus after he fled Syria on December 8, 2024. (AP)

Former loyalists to Bashar al-Assad who fled Syria after the dictator’s fall are funneling millions of dollars to tens of thousands of potential fighters, hoping to stir uprisings against the new government and reclaim some of their lost influence, a Reuters investigation has found.

Assad, who escaped to Russia last December, is largely resigned to exile in Moscow, say four people close to the family. But other senior figures from his inner circle, including his brother, have not come to terms with losing power.

Two of the men once closest to Assad, Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan and billionaire Rami Makhlouf, are competing to form militias in coastal Syria and Lebanon made up of members of their minority Alawite sect, long associated with the Assad family, Reuters found.

All told, the two men and other factions jostling for power are financing more than 50,000 fighters in hope of winning their loyalty.

Assad’s brother, Maher, who is also in Moscow and still controls thousands of former soldiers, has yet to give money or orders, said the four people close to the Assads.

One prize for Hassan and Makhlouf is control of a network of 14 underground command rooms built around coastal Syria toward the end of Assad’s rule, as well as weapons caches. Two officers and a Syrian regional governor confirmed the existence of these concealed rooms, details of which appear in Photos seen by Reuters.

Hassan, who was Bashar’s military intelligence chief, has been tirelessly making calls and sending voice messages to commanders and advisors.

In them, he seethes about his lost influence and outlines grandiose visions of how he would rule coastal Syria, home to the majority of Syria’s Alawite population and Assad’s former powerbase.

Makhlouf, a cousin of the Assads, once used his business empire to fund the dictator during the civil war, only to run afoul of his more powerful relatives and wind up under years of house arrest. He now portrays himself in conversations and messages as a messianic figure who will return to power after ushering in an apocalyptic final battle.

Hassan and Makhlouf did not respond to requests for comment for this report. Bashar and Maher Assad couldn’t be reached. Reuters also sought comment from the Assad brothers through intermediaries, who didn’t reply.

From their exiles in Moscow, Hassan and Makhlouf envision a fractured Syria, and each wants control of the Alawite-majority areas. Both have spent millions of dollars in competing efforts to build forces, Reuters found. Their deputies are in other countries including Russia and Lebanon.

To counter the plotters, Syria’s new government is deploying another former Assad loyalist – a childhood friend of new President Ahmed al-Sharaa who became a paramilitary leader for Assad and then switched sides mid-war after the dictator turned against him. The task of that man, Khaled al-Ahmad, is to persuade Alawite ex-soldiers and civilians that their future lies with the new Syria.

“This is an extension of the Assad regime’s power struggle,” said Annsar Shahhoud, a researcher who studied the dictatorship for more than a decade. “This competition continues now, but instead of the goal being to please Assad, the focus is on finding his replacement and controlling the Alawite community.”

Details of the scheming are based on interviews with 48 people with direct knowledge of the competing plans. All spoke on condition of anonymity. Reuters also reviewed financial records, operational documents, and exchanges of voice and text messages.

The governor of the coastal region of Tartous, Ahmed al-Shami, said Syrian authorities are aware of the outlines of the plans and ready to combat them.

He confirmed the existence of the command-room network as well, but said it has been weakened.

“We are certain they cannot do anything effective, given their lack of strong tools on the ground and their weak capabilities,” al-Shami told Reuters in response to questions about the plotting.

The Lebanese Interior Ministry and the Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. A UAE official said its government is committed to preventing the use of its territory for “all forms of illicit financial flows.”

An uprising could destabilize Syria’s new government as the United States and regional powers throw their support behind Sharaa, the former opposition commander who toppled Assad last December and is now navigating a fractured political landscape. It would risk igniting another round of deadly sectarian violence, which has roiled the new Syria over the past year.

For now, the prospects of a successful uprising seem low.

Chief plotters Hassan and Makhlouf are virulently at odds with one another. Their hopes are fading to win backing from Russia, once Assad’s most powerful political and military supporter. Many Alawites in Syria, who also suffered under Assad, mistrust the pair.

And the new government is working to stymie their plans.

In a brief statement in response to the Reuters findings, the government’s Alawite point man al-Ahmad said the “work of healing – of uprooting sectarian hatred and honoring the dead – remains the only path toward a Syria that can live with itself again.”

'PERHAPS THOUSANDS MORE WILL DIE'

Hassan claims control of 12,000 fighters, while Makhlouf claims control of at least 54,000, according to their factions’ internal documents. Commanders on the ground said fighters are paid a pittance and taking money from both sides.

The exiles don't appear to have mobilized any forces yet. Reuters could not confirm the fighter figures or determine specific action plans. Tartous governor Al-Shami said potential fighters numbered in the tens of thousands.

The new government took power after emerging victorious a year ago in the nearly 14-year civil war that plunged the country into sectarian bloodshed.

In March, nearly 1,500 civilians were killed across the Mediterranean coast by government-affiliated forces after a failed uprising in an Alawite town. Both Hassan and Makhlouf promise to protect Syria’s Alawites from the insecurity that has continued since March.

Alawite anger toward the new government erupted on November 25, when thousands took to the streets in Homs and coastal cities. They demanded more autonomy and the release of detainees.

The protests marked the first large-scale demonstrations Syria had witnessed since Assad’s fall.

Neither Makhlouf nor Hassan were behind the protests, but rather a cleric who opposes both men and publicly called on people to demonstrate peacefully. Makhlouf attacked the cleric the next day in a social media post, saying, “all these movements will only bring calamity, for the time is not yet right.”

One of Hassan’s top military coordinators told Reuters that fighting is the only way to restore Alawite dignity.

“We are lucky that only this number of our people have died so far,” said the coordinator, a former Assad-era military intelligence officer who is now in Lebanon. “Perhaps thousands more will die, but the sect must offer up sacrificial lambs” to defend the community.

According to January 2025 documents seen by Reuters, Assadist forces drew up initial plans to build a paramilitary force of 5,780 fighters and supply them from the subterranean command rooms. These are essentially large storerooms equipped with arms, solar power, internet, GPS units and walkie-talkies.

Nothing came of that early plan, and the command rooms – along a spine in coastal Syria about 180 kilometers from north to south – remain operational but essentially idle, according to two people with knowledge of them and photos seen by Reuters.

One photo showed a room with five stacked crates, three of which were open to reveal a collection of AK-47s, ammunition and hand grenades. The room also held three desktop computers, two tablets, a set of walkie-talkies, and a power bank. In the center was a wooden table topped with a large map.

For the plotters, “this network is Treasure Island, and they are all boats trying to reach it,” said one of the people, a commander who monitors the readiness of the rooms.

Al-Shami, the Tartous governor, said the network is real but poses little danger. “These centers have been significantly weakened since the liberation,” he said. “There is no concern about their continued existence.”

As senior military officials and ranking government figures escaped abroad in December 2024, many mid-level commanders remained in Syria. Most fled to the coastal regions dominated by Alawites, a Muslim minority that makes up a little over 10% of Syria’s population. Those officers started recruiting fighters, according to a retired commander involved in the effort.

“The most fertile ground was the military,” the retired commander said. “Thousands of young men from the sect had been conscripted into the army, which was dissolved in December, and they suddenly found themselves exposed.”

Then came the failed uprising on March 6. An Alawite unit operating independently ambushed security forces from the new Syrian government in rural Latakia, killing 12 men and capturing more than 150, according to a brigadier general who was involved with the ambush and has since left for Lebanon.

The new Syrian government says hundreds of its security forces died in the fighting that followed – a claim largely echoed by the pro-Assad fighters.

The brigadier general said 128 pro-Assad forces died in the uprising, which was quelled by the new government.

The Assadist exiles neither started nor commanded the uprising, according to the officers who were there, but those days marked a turning point. They began to organize.

AN ASSAD FAMILY FEUD

It was on March 9 that Makhlouf started calling himself “The Coast Boy,” declaring in a statement that he had been entrusted with a divine mission to help Alawites. “I’m back, and blessed be the return,” the statement read. It did not mention that he was in Moscow.

Makhlouf dominated Syria’s economy for more than two decades, with holdings estimated by the British government at well over a billion dollars in industries as varied as telecoms, construction and tourism. He used his money to fund Syrian army units and allied militias during the civil war, which broke out in 2011.

When Assad’s victory seemed assured in 2019, Makhlouf publicly claimed credit. Soon after, Assad seized Makhlouf's businesses, ostensibly because they were indebted to the state, and put him under years of house arrest.

Makhlouf escaped to Lebanon in an ambulance the night of December 8, 2024, as Damascus fell to Sharaa’s forces. Makhlouf’s brother Ehab also tried to flee that night in his Maserati, but was shot to death near the border and robbed of millions of dollars he was carrying in cash, according to four close associates of the family and a customs officer with direct knowledge of the events.

Reuters could not independently verify the events of that night.

Makhlouf now lives on a private floor in a luxurious Radisson hotel in Moscow under tight security, according to nine aides and relatives. He quotes frequently from the Quran. They said he became deeply religious during house arrest.

The Radisson in Moscow and group headquarters in Brussels did not respond to a request for comment.

Using trusted business administrators in Lebanon and Russia, Makhlouf is transferring money to Alawite officers for salaries and equipment, according to a financial manager and receipts and payroll tables seen by Reuters.

The documents show the money is funneled through two prominent Syrian officers who reunited with Makhlouf in Moscow: Suhail Hassan and Qahtan Khalil, who both held the rank of major general.

Hassan and Khalil claimed to have created a force for Makhlouf totaling what they said were 54,053 willing fighters, including 18,000 officers, organized into 80 battalions and groups in and around the cities of Homs, Hama, Tartous and Latakia. Many rank-and-file soldiers conscripted under Assad, however, gave up fighting when his government fell.

Hassan and Khalil didn’t reply to requests for comment about their role in transferring money.

One of his financial managers told Reuters that Makhlouf has spent at least $6 million on salaries. Payroll tables and salary receipts created by financial aides to Makhlouf in Lebanon claimed he spent $976,705 in May, and that one group of 5,000 fighters received $150,000 in August.

The total force numbers are real, according to five leaders of military groups in Syria who are on Makhlouf’s payroll and lead about a fifth of his following. But Makhlouf’s funding falls short of their needs, amounting to just $20 to $30 a month per fighter.

In addition, Makhlouf’s staff has sought to provide weapons. They have mapped the possible location of dozens of caches hidden during the Assad era totaling a few thousand firearms, according to schematics Reuters viewed. These stockpiles are separate from the hidden command rooms.

They have also been in discussions with smugglers in Syria for new weapons.

People familiar with the discussions said they didn’t know if new weapons were actually purchased or delivered.

Altogether, the five local military leaders said they command about 12,000 men in various stages of readiness. One of them told Reuters the time wasn’t yet right for action.

Another of the five commanders derided Makhlouf as trying to buy loyalty with “crumbs of money.”

All five said they had accepted money from both Makhlouf and Hassan, the spy chief. They saw no issue with overlapping paymasters.

“Thousands of Alawites, whether former Syrian soldiers or civilians dismissed from state jobs, live in extreme poverty,” one of the men said. “There is nothing wrong with taking some cash from these whales who sucked our blood for years.”

‘BE PATIENT’

Hassan ran the Assad dictatorship’s military detention system, which was notorious for extorting money at scale from prisoners’ families, according to a 2024 United Nations report about the system.

A Reuters investigation this year found it was Hassan who proposed moving a mass grave containing thousands of bodies in 2018 to the Dhumair desert outside Damascus to hide the scope of the Assad government atrocities.

Abandoned by Assad’s disintegrating army, Hassan fled first to the UAE’s embassy in Damascus and then took refuge in the Russian embassy in December 2024 for nearly two weeks. He was infuriated at what he perceived as ill-treatment by his hosts, who provided a single room with just one hard chair to sit on, according to two people close to him.

“Kamal Hassan is not one to sit on a wooden chair for days!” he said in one WhatsApp voice message to his inner circle from this spring, reviewed by Reuters.

Hassan ultimately took up residence in a three-story villa in suburban Moscow, according to an officer who met him over the summer. Since then, he has seen Maher al-Assad once and maintains close ties with Bashar’s Russian protectors, according to the two people aware of Hassan’s movements.

According to Hassan’s operations coordinator in Lebanon, Hassan has spent $1.5 million since March on 12,000 fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

“Be patient, my people, and don’t surrender your arms. I am the one who will restore your dignity,” he said in another WhatsApp voice message from April that appeared aimed at commanders. Two recipients confirmed the message was from him.

In mid-year, a charity called the “Development of Western Syria” announced its creation and said it was funded by “the Syrian citizen Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan,” according to one of its initial Facebook posts. Three officers linked to Hassan and a manager in the organization described it as a humanitarian cover so Hassan could build influence among Alawites.

In August, the charity paid $80,000 to shelter 40 Syrian Alawite families, according to an announcement of its first action. That same month, Hassan sent $200,000 in cash to 80 officers in Lebanon, according to a payroll document seen by Reuters.

Over the summer, Hassan also recruited about 30 hackers once affiliated with his military intelligence branch, according to an aide in Moscow and one of the hackers, a computer engineer. Their orders were to carry out cyberattacks against the new government and plant spyware in its computer systems.

By September, Syrian government datasets that the engineer said his team stole were for sale on the dark web for $150 to $500. Reuters found several of the sets he identified online, including databases with staff details for the communications and health ministries.

The engineer said former spy chief Hassan plans a multifaceted attack to reclaim his place in Syria. “Major General Kamal knows that war is not only on the ground but on every front,” he said.

THE OTHER ASSAD

A potential key player in attempts to instigate an uprising is Maher al-Assad, the ex-dictator’s younger brother.

Maher controlled both a business empire and the most powerful unit of the Syrian military, the 4th Armored Division. Under him, according to research by the US think tank New Lines Institute, the division gained power and financial independence that made it akin to a state within a state – to the point where it received its own sanctions from the United States, Britain and the European Union.

A senior division commander, now in Lebanon, said Maher’s financial empire remains largely operational except for his alleged sales of Captagon, an illicitly produced amphetamine. His assets are believed to be stashed in shell companies both inside and outside Syria, according to a businessman close to him.

The commander said while Bashar al-Assad is focused on his private life and businesses, Maher still wants influence in Syria. The younger brother cannot fathom how the children of Hafez al-Assad, the dictatorship’s founder, could be forced out of Syria, he said.

Two division officers say many of its 25,000 fighters, both inside and outside Syria, still consider Maher al-Assad their commander and he can mobilize them if he gives the order.

Makhlouf isn’t seeking the Assads’ backing: Publicly, he has derided his cousins as “the fugitives.” Hassan, relying on years of personal ties and collaboration with the Assads, is appealing for Maher’s support, according to three senior sources in both camps.

Russia has so far withheld support for Hassan and Makhlouf, according to six people with direct knowledge of the exiles’ attempts to win over the Kremlin.

While Moscow is harboring the exiles, the Russian government has been clear that its priority is continued access to the military bases it still operates in coastal Syria, according to two diplomats familiar with Russia’s position.

In bidding for Russian help, one key figure is a senior Syrian officer, Ahmed al-Malla, who has had Russian citizenship since early in the civil war. Al-Malla brokered separate informal meetings in Moscow beginning in March between Russian officials and Hassan and Makhlouf’s two Russia-based deputies, according to handwritten minutes from one meeting seen by Reuters. According to the notes, the Russians told the exiles: organize yourselves, and let us see your plans.

Al-Malla did not respond to requests for comment about his role as a mediator.

But the meetings between Russian officials and the exiled Syrian factions have grown infrequent, said two people with direct knowledge of their scheduling. They said there have been none since President Sharaa visited Moscow in October to secure Kremlin support.

During the visit, Sharaa raised the issue of Hassan and Makhlouf with the Russian government, said al-Shami, the Tartous governor. Al-Shami said Russia – and, separately, Lebanon – “expressed their willingness to increase coordination and prevent any activity by these individuals within their territories.” He was unaware of any meetings the plotters may have had with Russian officials.

One of the diplomats said Sharaa’s meeting at the Kremlin “sent a signal to Alawite insurgents: There was no one abroad coming to save them.”

There are indications that Makhlouf, whose business accounts have been frozen due to international sanctions, is having cash flow problems. October salaries have yet to arrive, according to three people with knowledge of the transfers.

THE MAN ON THE GROUND

Since the March killings, the Damascus government has relied on a point man to counter the plotting: Khaled al-Ahmad, a childhood friend of President Sharaa.

An Alawite, al-Ahmad was once in Assad’s inner circle. He served as a shadow diplomat and a founder of the National Defense Forces, Assad’s largest allied paramilitary.

Like Makhlouf, al-Ahmad believed he was responsible for Assad’s victory in the civil war. Assad gave al-Ahmad much the same treatment as his cousin, stripping him of privileges and ordering him drafted, according to two aides.

Al-Ahmad fled to Cyprus, and then, in 2021, visited northwestern Syria’s Idlib to meet up with his old friend, Sharaa, according to accounts from three people who have worked with both men. They discussed Sharaa’s plan to topple Assad, according to the three people.

It materialized in December 2024.

Reuters reviewed WhatsApp voice messages from al-Ahmad in late 2024 in which he told key military officials that it was futile to stick with the losing dictator and promised clemency if they abandoned him and prevented a bloodbath.

In his statement to Reuters, al-Ahmad said his objective as the government fell in December was to prevent more bloodshed, but acknowledged being unable to fully “spare Syrians from further loss, or from the sectarian shadows that continue to darken our society.”

Today al-Ahmad is Syria’s most powerful Alawite, moving between a Beirut penthouse overlooking the sea and a fortified villa in Damascus.

“His role is considered crucial in fostering trust between the Alawite community and the new government,” said al-Shami, the Tartous governor.

Four aides said al-Ahmad is funding and coordinating job creation and economic development because he believes they are the solution to the destabilizing high unemployment that followed the fall of Assad, when the army was dissolved and Alawites lost government posts.

In late October, the Interior Ministry announced the arrest of a coastal cell it said was funded by Makhlouf that was plotting to assassinate journalists and activists.

In all, Tartous governor al-Shami said, the number of arrests of people linked to Makhlouf and Hassan was in the dozens.

Along that same coast, stockpiles of gear are quietly gathering dust in underground rooms, according to the field commander, who personally keeps watch over several of them.

They’ll be ready when needed, he said, but so far he sees no side worth choosing.



What to Know about the Impacts of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Move from Brazil to the US

(FILES) WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 19: US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro participate shake hands after a joint news conference at the Rose Garden of the White House March 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Bolsonaro for a visit and bilateral talks at the White House today. (Photo by MARK WILSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)
(FILES) WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 19: US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro participate shake hands after a joint news conference at the Rose Garden of the White House March 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Bolsonaro for a visit and bilateral talks at the White House today. (Photo by MARK WILSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)
TT

What to Know about the Impacts of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Move from Brazil to the US

(FILES) WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 19: US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro participate shake hands after a joint news conference at the Rose Garden of the White House March 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Bolsonaro for a visit and bilateral talks at the White House today. (Photo by MARK WILSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)
(FILES) WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 19: US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro participate shake hands after a joint news conference at the Rose Garden of the White House March 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Bolsonaro for a visit and bilateral talks at the White House today. (Photo by MARK WILSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)

Flávio Bolsonaro is now in Miami after fleeing to the US following his stunning defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential elections.

Bolsonaro has refused to concede and has positioned himself as the “leader of Brazil” while declaring that there was electoral fraud, without providing evidence. In a letter on Wednesday, the senator for Rio de Janeiro said he relocated to the US because he is the victim of political and judicial persecution.

The departure of the 45-year-old ally of US President Donald Trump from Brazil days after losing the runoff vote is sending shock waves across Brazil’s right and reverberating across the region, and it may spell more trouble for relations between Washington and Brasilia.

Here’s what to know about the possible impacts of Bolsonaro’s exodus from Brazil.

The shake-up of Brazil’s right

Bolsonaro has promised to lead the opposition to Lula from abroad. “I will say what you cannot say, and I will assume the risks you cannot take,” he said in a letter on Wednesday, addressing himself to political representatives of his party.

But Bolsonaro’s move to Miami complicates that vow, analysts say, leaving a power vacuum on the Brazilian right, which had united around Flávio’s presidential bid. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, appointed him as his political heir last December. The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.

“Flávio’s departure, along with the difficulty of directing the process from a distance and all the criticism he is likely to face for saying he wouldn’t flee and then fleeing, is likely to weaken him,” said Carlos Melo, a political-science professor at Insper university.

But as a political force, the right may lose neither influence nor impact following his departure due to its gains in Congress, said Luciana Santana, a political scientist at the Federal University of Alagoas.

“The group in Congress retains instruments to block proposals, negotiate with government and dispute the public agenda,” Santana said.

Impact on the global far right A Bolsonaro win would have aligned Brazil with many of its regional neighbors, where conservatives have swept to power in seven presidential elections in 18 months.

Across much of Latin America, voters fed up with rising crime have rewarded presidential candidates promising to restore order. From Peru’s Keiko Fujimori to Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, newly elected conservatives have courted Trump while taking their cues from El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose sweeping gang crackdown has sharply reduced homicides at the cost of mass arrests and suspended civil liberties.

Bolsonaro’s defeat is a setback for the far-right in the region and beyond, as it stops its ascension to the presidency of an economic powerhouse in the region that has significant diplomatic weight, said Santana.

But Lula’s win will not necessarily translate into the overall weakening of the movement, she said. As well as the gains in Congress, Flávio received nearly 60 million votes, indicating the competitiveness of the movement in Brazil.

Beyond Brazil’s borders, the international repercussions of Flávio’s flight depend on how the episode will be interpreted.

“Bolsonaro’s escape can be used by international networks as a symbol of alleged persecution. This could mobilize those who most strongly identify with the movement,” said Santana.

Tense relations between Washington and Brasilia

As congratulations poured in from Brazil’s allies and rivals around the world, Trump suggested Monday, without providing evidence, that Lula’s reelection was “rigged.”

But when asked about Bolsonaro’s assertion on Wednesday that he was the “rightful president-elect of Brazil” — a term the defeated candidate later softened to “leader of Brazil” — the US president said he would not comment. Instead, Trump said he has given Bolsonaro a “pass” to come into the country.

“I won’t get involved,” Trump said, before repeating his claim that the election was “very strange.”

Lula’s win cements Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy as a counterweight to Washington and limits Trump’s drive to tighten his grip on the Western Hemisphere.

Lula has championed Brazil’s long tradition of nonalignment, cultivating ties with competing powers. His government deepened trade ties with China and sought greater global influence through BRICS, a group of emerging economies.

While Bolsonaro’s presence in the US adds “a new layer of problems to the already complicated bilateral relationship,” it is unlikely to be decisive, said Oliver Stuenkel, a political scientist and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment think-tank.

While there will now be two Bolsonaro brothers potentially lobbying the US government on behalf of specific policies vis-a-vis Brazil, whether Washington heeds any such calls remains to be seen, Stuenkel said.

“Either Trump will pursue a pragmatic stance and basically recognize that US pressure to elect Flávio failed (...) or there will continue to be continued friction,” he said.


Takeaways From Israel’s Inconclusive Election

People sit outside the Israeli parliament Knesset in Jerusalem, 28 October 2026. (EPA)
People sit outside the Israeli parliament Knesset in Jerusalem, 28 October 2026. (EPA)
TT

Takeaways From Israel’s Inconclusive Election

People sit outside the Israeli parliament Knesset in Jerusalem, 28 October 2026. (EPA)
People sit outside the Israeli parliament Knesset in Jerusalem, 28 October 2026. (EPA)

Israelis faced political uncertainty Wednesday after no clear winner appeared to have emerged from a high-turnout election. The path to forming a government is fraught for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main opponent, and another round of elections cannot be ruled out.

The first elections since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack were seen as a pivotal moment in Israel's history, serving both as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule and a choice between different visions for the country's future.

The initial results show a deeply divided electorate with multiple fault lines.

Netanyahu lost support but could remain in office. His main opponent, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, would most likely have to partner with Arab-led parties to unseat him, a politically costly move that could alienate other opposition factions.

They could also partner with Netanyahu in a broad-based unity government, but that would be seen as a major betrayal by many of their voters after they put his ouster at the heart of their campaigns.

Final, official results are expected on Thursday or Friday, but there will likely be weeks of negotiations before a prime minister is declared — or new elections are called.

Here are the main takeaways:

Netanyahu is down but not out

Initial results show Netanyahu's religious and ultranationalist coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority of 61 seats, after reaching a peak of 68 seats in the previous parliament. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud also appears to have been whittled down from 32 seats to around 27.

That could reflect growing disillusionment with his long rule, anger at his handling of the Oct. 7 attacks and their aftermath, and his support for the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service, an intensely divisive issue as the country is embroiled in multiple wars.

But Likud still appears to have emerged as the largest party, putting Netanyahu in the best position to be tasked first with forming a government.

He would need support from at least one opposition party, or several defectors from that side, to rule. Most have promised not to partner with Netanyahu, but the Israeli leader, a savvy political operator, could offer them concessions. He is also likely to argue that a broad-based government under his leadership is preferable to one relying on Arab-led parties — or another round of elections.

He can already claim a victory of sorts by having retained much of his support even after the deadliest security breakdown in Israel's history unfolded on his watch.

Netanyahu “manages to overcome situations that I can’t see anyone else managing to overcome,” said Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank. “Politically, he is a magician.”

The opposition faces an uphill battle

Initial results indicate that parties opposed to Netanyahu won a parliamentary majority. But they include Arab-led factions that have long been politically sidelined, and which some Jewish-led parties have refused to partner with.

In the face of “a politics of supremacy, racism and exclusion, we are offering a totally different alternative,” Yousef Jabareen, the head of the Arab Joint List, said on X. “The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership. Nothing more, nothing less.”

Only one Arab party has ever joined an Israeli governing coalition, in 2021, and that government only lasted about 18 months. The level of distrust is far higher after Oct. 7 and the resulting wars. Netanyahu is likely to exploit that by casting any partnership with Arab-led parties as illegitimate or treasonous.

Without the Arabs, Eisenkot and his Jewish allies have no clear path to forming a coalition to unseat Netanyahu, and another round of elections might further weaken their hand.

Tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in for this election may not return for another one, and Netanyahu would stay on as caretaker prime minister, giving him a platform to attack his opponents and try to expand his own coalition.

That leaves the prospect of forming a government with Netanyahu — after a campaign in which they blamed him for the failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack, portrayed him as a threat to Israel's democratic institutions and highlighted his ongoing corruption trial.

Arab parties' success could make it harder to partner with them

The Arab-led parties represent Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, who make up about 20% of the country’s population. Descendants of Palestinians who remained in Israel after its creation in 1948, they are entitled to vote and serve in parliament.

While they hold senior roles in many sectors of Israeli society, they face discrimination, and many Jewish Israelis view them with suspicion because of their general support for the Palestinian cause.

Surging Arab turnout, driven in part by disgust at Netanyahu's far-right allies, may have delivered a historic victory for Arab-led parties, who could win around 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

That would give them significant power in any partnership with Eisenkot — potentially making such an alliance less likely. The opposition might also have to partner with hard-line Arab factions that are even more widely rejected among Jewish Israelis.

The results do little to assuage Israel's internal divisions

The elections were an inflection point for Israel after three years of war. But they also highlighted the same divisions that have roiled the country for decades.

Netanyahu's coalition, made up of ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties, supported strengthening Israel's Jewish character. It pushed for more settlement construction in the occupied West Bank and allowed for military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. It also attempted to push through an overhaul of the country's judiciary in 2023 that drew mass protests.

Eisenkot's camp promoted a vision where Israel's Jewish character lives in harmony with its liberal democratic ideals. It promised honest leadership and accountability for Israel's Oct. 7 failures, vowed to bolster the judiciary and end the military draft exemptions. They also promised to fix Israel's international standing, which has deteriorated because of the Gaza war and settler violence in the West Bank.

The apparently stalemated results suggest Israel's divisions are deeper than ever.


‘Nobody Heard us’ – Why Gen Z Are Leading Protests Across Europe

 People celebrate the victory of the Student List at parliamentary election after Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat, at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, October 26, 2026. (Reuters)
People celebrate the victory of the Student List at parliamentary election after Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat, at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, October 26, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

‘Nobody Heard us’ – Why Gen Z Are Leading Protests Across Europe

 People celebrate the victory of the Student List at parliamentary election after Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat, at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, October 26, 2026. (Reuters)
People celebrate the victory of the Student List at parliamentary election after Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat, at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, October 26, 2026. (Reuters)

Maya Gourdel, a 19-year-old student in Brussels, sits at a desk writing slogans against those running her country: “If we burn, you burn with us!” The slogan, taken from the 2012 film "The Hunger Games" that has been adopted as a symbol by many youth movements globally, reflects the anger, frustration and desire for change driving Gen Z-led protests around Europe.

From the suburbs of Paris to the squares of Belgrade, thousands have taken to the streets.

The demands are various but often overlapping – frustrations with shabby schooling facilities, perceived lack of economic opportunity, cost of living, corruption, housing and a sense of not being listened to. At times those protests triggered violence – with thousands of shops in France alone being damaged or looted in recent weeks – and police firing stun grenades and water cannons.

This weekend they also brought real change – student-led protests culminated in the toppling in an election of Serbia’s long-time leader Aleksandar Vucic after nearly two years of demonstrations against perceived corruption and creeping authoritarianism.

“Waking up, the first thing we felt was certainly a sense of relief and freedom," said student protester Stasa Piletic. "Personally, I feel a sense of victory. I feel that we finally moved from protests to responsibility."

‘AN EXPLOSION OF RAGE’

Chiara, a 21-year-old student ‌in protest-hit Milan, believes “it's ‌vital to take part in people's spontaneous movements born from an explosion of rage that made collective ‌action possible.”

"I ⁠think the worst ⁠damage this ruling class has done to my generation is stealing even the ability to imagine a future, to dream," she said.

She said Italian students were confronting a reality of schools without enough teachers and crumbling buildings.

“And all of this with the prospect of an underpaid job which we didn't qualify for and the prospect of living in a tiny, overpriced house, probably away from our city, which we didn't want to live in."

Protests led by Gen Z have caused ructions globally as the generation born roughly between 1997 and 2012 found its voice, from Bangladesh in 2024 and Nepal in 2025, to India this year. Now Europe has become a focal point.

Rising prices and the cost of living are a concern for 40% of 16-30-year-olds, according to a European Union survey published in 2025.

Among the 92.7 million people in the EU who faced ⁠the risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2025, the highest risk was recorded for young adults aged 18-24 years, ‌at 26.3%, while the lowest was recorded for adults aged 65 years or over, at 18.8%.

Younger ‌people are also wary of shouldering the financial burden of an older generation that tends to vote in greater numbers. People over 60 in France make up a quarter ‌of the population but own 60% of France's wealth, according to the OFCE think tank.

French pensions are by far the biggest public expense, on track to reach ‌14% of economic output, as the population ages and voters resist raising the retirement age or reducing benefits. That is still less than Greece or Italy, which spend the largest proportion of national income on public pensions among OECD countries, at around 16% of GDP, according to OECD figures in 2025. But it is much more than Australia, Chile, Iceland, Ireland or South Korea, which spent less than 4% of GDP on public pensions, according to the OECD.

‘YOUNG PEOPLE IN EUROPE ARE UNITED’

Bilal Narjissi, a 17-year-old high school student in ‌a suburb north of Paris, has been protesting against “deplorable” conditions and staff shortages at his school. “There used to be rats,” he said.

Students were evacuated last year when a roof collapsed on the courtyard, though no one was hurt, ⁠he said.

Protests showed “that young people in ⁠Europe are united”, he said, adding, "we all agree on one point: that young people are treated like children, far too much, and that they aren't listened to enough.”

A French government report in October said pension spending had risen by 2.5 percentage points of GDP between 2000 and 2023 while that for education had declined 0.5. It also showed 32% of the education ministry’s budget went towards pensions, crowding out money for other areas.

Gourdel, too, has been protesting for better conditions in schools in Belgium.

“We tried to do it passively. Nobody heard us. It's only when people started to burn trash or that kind of stuff that the media and cameras started showing us,” she said.

The protests are still spreading, with a demonstration planned in Germany this weekend over cost of living, inequality, war and the state of schools.

Unrest has also hit Albania, where student-led demonstrations against Prime Minister Edi Rama's government, fueled by anger over perceived corruption, a lack of jobs and poor education standards, engulfed Tirana and spread to other cities.

“Our Prime Minister spent 130 days not listening to us,” said Xyke Kurti, a 19-year-old architecture student.

“If you ask a student in Albania, 'where do you see your future?' Everyone says 'outside this country'," she said, arguing that at home, even if you have talent, someone with "connections is always going to beat you".

Serbia’s student movement did what demonstrators in other European capitals can only dream of.

Now, though, comes the gritty business of governing – something neither the students nor their candidates have any experience of.

Luka Stojakovic, another protester, brushes that aside. "We have seen where people with political experience have brought us."