AI Tsunami Plunges Millions into Unemployment

“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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AI Tsunami Plunges Millions into Unemployment

“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)

The year 2025 brought no respite for Lebanese language editor and proofreader Hamida Al-Shaker. Before the year had run its course, her decades-long professional journey was abruptly cut short.

Nearly 60, Al-Shaker had never used artificial intelligence tools or held a conversation with ChatGPT, as millions now do. She was unaware that the technologies rapidly spreading across mobile phones and computers were already doing her job, faster and more efficiently than any human could.

That quiet technological advance proved devastating. A sweeping transformation in the labor market became a tsunami, pushing Al-Shaker and millions of workers worldwide toward unemployment, sparing no sector and few age groups. The impact has been particularly harsh on employees over 50 who failed to keep pace with the accelerating speed of technological change.

According to the website allaboutai, the adoption of artificial intelligence has already contributed to the loss of around 14 million jobs globally. And the wave is far from over. As many as 92 million jobs could disappear worldwide over the next five years.

At its core, artificial intelligence enables computer systems to mimic human thinking, make decisions, and execute complex tasks, from planning to practical application, particularly in editorial and knowledge-based work.

Shock and an uncertain future

Al-Shaker was unaware of this reality, a fact that led to a shock, followed by another, during 2025, which saw the widest spread yet of AI applications. The first shock came when she received a call from the human resources department informing her that her salary would be cut by 50 percent due to “financial difficulties facing the company.” Less than five months later, a second call informed her that she was being laid off, without explanation.

According to Al-Shaker, citing her department head, she was not alone. Half of the team lost their jobs due to the impact of artificial intelligence on client contracts, as companies increasingly turned to AI to draft their news, statements, and reports, either for free or at minimal monthly subscription costs, compared with the sums they previously paid to public relations and advertising agencies.

In this context, economic analyses published by Reuters indicate that annual subscriptions to advanced AI tools, even at the enterprise level, often do not exceed the cost of paying a single employee’s salary for a limited number of months. From a purely managerial perspective, this makes such decisions easy to justify financially.

As a result, Al-Shaker and her colleagues became just another figure in a cold equation. Companies boost profits and cut production costs, while growing numbers of workers are pushed out of the labor market, not because they lack competence, but because algorithms are cheaper than people.

Most affected sectors

Al-Shaker’s story is not an isolated case. It is part of a growing global phenomenon affecting workers across multiple sectors. Specialized reports indicate that jobs based on routine tasks or repetitive data processing are most vulnerable, as automation and generative AI tools expand. Among the most affected sectors are:

Customer service and call centers, where intelligent chat systems and text and voice analysis tools can now handle user inquiries with high efficiency, according to TechRT.

Data and administrative support tasks, such as data entry, file classification, and secretarial work, are being replaced by advanced automation tools, according to Complete AI Training.

Retail and supply chains, where self-checkout systems, smart warehouses, and inventory automation have reduced the need for cashiers and traditional warehouse workers, according to Pleeq Software and ninjatech.blog.

Manufacturing and production, where the spread of robots and automated control systems has intensified the impact of AI on manual labor jobs, according to All About AI.

Accounting and financial operations, where demand for basic roles has declined due to reliance on intelligent financial software capable of handling bookkeeping and routine processes, according to Complete AI Training.

Content creation and media, which have not been spared, are now threatened as AI is capable of writing, summarizing, and rewriting content, posing a challenge to a range of basic writing tasks.

Many workers who lost their jobs do not realize that they are victims of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, which Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum at the time, warned about years earlier.

Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai in 2016, Schwab said the world was “on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another.”

He added that the scale, scope, and complexity of the changes would be unprecedented, and that while their exact shape remained unclear, the response would have to be integrated and comprehensive across the public and private sectors, academia, and civil society.

Market demands and human skills

Much of what Schwab predicted has now come to pass, particularly in recent months, as companies worldwide accelerate their adoption of AI tools. Experience alone is no longer enough to remain competitive in the labor market. Traditional jobs are changing rapidly, and the required human skills have become more specialized and complex, with greater emphasis on working alongside intelligent systems and turning information into added value.

Professionals who understand how to integrate AI tools into their daily work without sacrificing quality or analytical depth are increasingly in demand, according to Maziad Hijaz‏, Editor-in-Chief at Hewar Group‏ in Riyadh.

Hijaz told Asharq Al-Awsat that artificial intelligence has become an essential part of daily work in terms of speed and volume, while review, editing, and analysis remain entirely human responsibilities to ensure quality.

He added that the sector now requires new skills, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind. These include utilizing AI tools for writing and analysis, developing data literacy, employing predictive analysis, and transforming information into compelling narratives. Combining human skills with AI tools is what ensures excellence.

Firas Barakat, a strategic communications expert in Saudi Arabia, said AI represents a pivotal turning point in labor markets, enhancing efficiency while reshaping the nature of jobs and required skills.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Barakat said AI has undoubtedly caused the loss of traditional roles involving routine tasks, but at the same time, it is a major engine for generating new jobs in advanced fields such as data analysis, cybersecurity, smart systems management, and digital solutions engineering, roles that did not exist just a few years ago.

History repeats itself

Technology expert Hassan Yahya, based in the United States, offered a historical perspective. He said this is not the first time the world has been stunned by technological advances, noting that similar fears over job losses have accompanied every major innovation.

He pointed to 1959, when General Motors introduced the industrial robot Unimate, triggering widespread warnings about threats to employment.

Yahya said that AI is already affecting millions of jobs, with projections from the World Economic Forum indicating that 92 million jobs will disappear over the next five years. However, more than 170 million new jobs are expected to be created, meaning a fundamental transformation of work rather than mass unemployment.

He added that eliminating jobs without replacing them does not serve companies or economies, making the creation of new roles inevitable. However, this requires learning how to work with AI, as ignoring the shift could leave many people outside a rapidly changing labor market.

Cost-cutting and profit maximization

The experiences of employees cannot be separated from a recurring economic equation that is evident in thousands of companies worldwide. Instead of retaining experienced staff with associated salaries, insurance, and end-of-service benefits, many firms are opting to replace them with AI.

A World Economic Forum report found that 41 percent of global companies plan to reduce their workforce by 2030 due to increased reliance on AI and automation.

Hijaz said AI adoption has also reshaped relationships with clients, accelerating work and significantly improving quality. He cited a Deloitte study showing that integrating AI into public relations reduced content production time by 25 to 35 percent while improving accuracy.

A market worth billions

The gains are split between business owners and AI companies, whose financial returns contrast sharply with the reality faced by thousands of displaced workers. In mid-2025, a Reuters report stated that OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, had reached annual revenues of around $10 billion by the end of the first half of the year, on track to exceed $12.7 billion by year's end, driven by surging demand for its services.

This growth is not limited to OpenAI. A Forbes report showed that other global technology companies with AI divisions are generating billions of dollars in additional annual revenue, making AI one of the most important profit sources for major tech firms, even as some lay off staff to improve cost efficiency.

Key players

The main players in the sector include OpenAI, best known for ChatGPT and a leader in large language models, with a strategic partnership with Microsoft.

Google DeepMind follows, having developed powerful models such as Gemini and AlphaGo, and leading in scientific, medical, and research-oriented AI.

Microsoft itself has become a global force in AI, investing billions in OpenAI and integrating AI across Windows, Office through Copilot, and Azure AI.

NVIDIA focuses on developing the chips and processors that power AI, while Meta offers open-source models such as LLaMA. Amazon Web Services leads in cloud-based AI, and Anthropic has emerged as a strong competitor in the field of language models.

The global AI market was estimated at around $747.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $2.74 trillion by 2032, according to AffMaven.

Concerns over consequences

The stark contrast between multibillion-dollar AI revenues and the growing risk facing millions of workers raises a central ethical and economic question. Why do companies benefit from technology to cut costs and boost profits while often postponing or ignoring their social responsibility toward displaced employees?

Economists warn that such savings are frequently achieved without genuine retraining efforts or alternative job creation, deepening global unemployment rather than addressing it.

Islam Al-Shafii, an economist based in New York, cited remarks by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Dec. 20, warning of waves of layoffs linked to AI or companies halting job postings for the same reason.

Al-Shafii said the current fear of AI remains precautionary, as it has not yet fully replaced humans. The real risk, he said, is that work previously requiring five employees can now be done by one person using AI.

He added that while some professions remain relatively safe for now, such as skilled trades, concerns persist over safety and decision-making, with international organizations expressing reservations.

Breaking monopolies

Yahya argued that confronting these changes requires breaking three major monopolies: the monopoly of university degrees in hiring, as companies like Google and Dell focus on skills rather than diplomas; the technological monopoly, as AI empowers individuals to execute ideas without large teams; and the language monopoly, as AI allows interaction in native languages, opening the digital economy to millions.

The digital economy is expected to exceed $24 trillion by 2025, accounting for approximately 21 percent of the global economy and growing faster than traditional sectors.

Capitalism under strain

Al-Shafii warned that advanced capitalist societies, which rely heavily on tax revenues from employees, could face systemic strain if jobs are replaced by AI. Without a sufficient tax base, governments may struggle to fund essential services, which can potentially lead to social instability and collapse.

He noted that business owners who once built factories in East Asia for cheap labor are now returning home to rely on robots for production.

United Nations concern

The issue has also reached the United Nations, particularly at its headquarters in New York. Al-Shafii stated that there is a deep concern over AI, but institutions often focus on gains while overlooking the associated losses.

He noted that AI supports many sustainable development goals and cybersecurity efforts, but its negative aspects, including cyber fraud and surveillance risks, have yet to be fully addressed. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has repeatedly warned against militarizing AI and entrusting humanity’s future to algorithms.

Threat or opportunity?

Concerns over AI extend beyond job losses to issues of transparency and information security. Hijaz said AI requires greater responsibility to ensure accuracy and disclosure.

Asked whether AI is a threat or an opportunity, he said it is an inevitable development that must be harnessed. Like the computer and the internet before it, initial fears will likely give way to empowerment.

He added that creativity remains a uniquely human value that AI cannot replace, and that technology enhances rather than eliminates it.

Not a replacement

Translation professor Mohammed Khair Nadman told Asharq Al-Awsat that AI tools now save around 60 percent of time in translation and writing, supporting but not fully replacing human work. He warned that AI can still make serious errors, making human oversight essential.

M. A. Hadi, MD, Head of the Department of Pathology at a hospital in the United States, said that the current wave of misinformation fueled by easy access to online medical content and artificial intelligence "will not last long if simple regulations are put in place".

He explained that reading medical information online or collecting data through AI does not make someone a physician, just as reading news does not make a journalist, nor learning about car engines makes one a mechanic. "In the same way," he noted, "having extensive legal knowledge through AI does not qualify someone to be accepted in court as a lawyer."

Dr. Hadi added that while such knowledge can empower individuals to ask better and more informed questions, it does not replace professional expertise. "AI can help people engage more effectively with professionals and may even push experts to become more transparent and ethical, reducing the space for fraud, middlemen, and bad practices," he said.

Quoting the Arabic proverb "give your bread to the baker, even if he eats half of it", Dr. Hadi stressed that while the "do-it-yourself" mindset has always existed and can be useful, real work must still be done by qualified experts. "Artificial intelligence will likely make professionals better, as general knowledge continues to expand," he said, "but professional training, experience, and licensing cannot and should not be granted to laypeople, even if they are well-read or AI-assisted."

He warned that partial or incomplete knowledge can be more harmful than helpful when applied in practice, concluding that, ultimately, "the evidence is in the results."

A final attempt

Al-Shaker, living in crisis-hit Lebanon without a private sector pension system, believed her regional company job was secure. After losing it, she tried to catch up, creating a LinkedIn account, registering on job platforms, taking free online courses, and sending dozens of resumes, often receiving automated or no responses.

Her story reflects the dilemma of an entire generation pushed out of the market, not due to lack of competence, but because the rules changed abruptly.

She ended with a bitter question: Nearly two centuries after the Industrial Revolution sparked the call, “Workers of the world, unite,” will there now be a call saying, “Employees of the world, unite?”



Iran's Postponed War: Who Holds the Power to Ignite It?

A US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet refuels from a KC-135 tanker aircraft during an aerial patrol over the Middle East (CENTCOM)
A US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet refuels from a KC-135 tanker aircraft during an aerial patrol over the Middle East (CENTCOM)
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Iran's Postponed War: Who Holds the Power to Ignite It?

A US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet refuels from a KC-135 tanker aircraft during an aerial patrol over the Middle East (CENTCOM)
A US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet refuels from a KC-135 tanker aircraft during an aerial patrol over the Middle East (CENTCOM)

With Israel preparing for possible military strikes against Iran, and Washington showing restraint ahead of the US midterm elections, questions are mounting over whether the region is experiencing a temporary pause dictated by electoral calculations or a final opportunity for a political settlement.

While one strategic affairs expert expects a major confrontation by the end of November, two others downplay the influence of election results on decisions by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that strategic considerations will ultimately prove decisive.

The question in Washington and Tel Aviv is no longer simply whether war with Iran will resume, but when, on what scale and with what objectives.

Reports that Israel prepared a large-scale bombing campaign against Iranian targets before postponing it following Trump's objections have revived a sensitive question: Is the war awaiting the conclusion of the US and Israeli elections, or does its postponement reflect deeper disagreements over the merits of escalation?

These questions are gaining urgency as elections approach in both countries. Assessments by three American experts reveal differing expectations about military developments and political calculations, but converge on one central point: Election results alone will not determine the outcome of the confrontation.

US President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the West Wing of the White House in Washington, DC on September 29, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

A War Awaiting Its Moment

The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Netanyahu had instructed the Israeli military to prepare a large-scale bombing campaign against Iran, initially scheduled for October 10, before the operation was canceled after Trump objected to resuming military action ahead of the US elections.

According to the newspaper, the plan included strikes on nuclear facilities, civilian infrastructure and sites associated with the Iranian regime.

Israeli officials also presented US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with a list of targets based on new intelligence during his unannounced visit to Israel on Monday.

Axios had previously reported that the Pentagon requested the completion of preparations for extensive military operations without setting a date for their execution.

The outlet cited officials as saying that Hegseth and US military commanders in the region were pushing for renewed strikes, while most of Trump's advisers favored continuing sanctions and economic pressure.

These developments suggest that the disagreement concerns the timing and necessity of military force more than the ultimate objectives.

Washington wants to secure Iranian concessions on Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel fears that continued negotiations could allow Iran to rebuild its military capabilities.

Scenarios for Escalation

Offering a more pessimistic assessment, Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian military and security affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Asharq Al-Awsat that all indicators point toward a major military confrontation involving the United States, Israel and Iran, and potentially other regional countries, by the end of November.

Nadimi did not rule out the possibility that intensive diplomatic efforts could prevent escalation, but considered the chances of success extremely slim.

He outlined a scenario beginning with a renewed wave of strikes targeting senior leaders and command-and-control centers, followed by attacks on nuclear and missile facilities and air defense systems, eventually escalating into a comprehensive bombing campaign against Iranian military and security installations.

Whether the campaign would expand to infrastructure, oil and gas facilities, and petrochemical plants would depend on the nature of Iran's response, he said.

Nadimi warned that Tehran might make a more determined effort this time to sink US warships and shoot down manned aircraft, while also deploying longer-range, medium-range ballistic missiles.

He raised an even more dangerous possibility: a ground incursion into Kuwait or Saudi Arabia from Iraq, carried out by Shiite factions linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces.

This remains a hypothetical scenario proposed by the researcher, rather than confirmed evidence of an Iranian plan to carry out such an operation.

At the same time, Nadimi ruled out a US ground invasion of Iran, suggesting that the next confrontation would more closely resemble the previous 39-day war.

Washington's Calculations

Brian Katulis, a foreign policy and regional affairs expert at the Middle East Institute, downplayed the significance of election results in determining the course of the war.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US midterm elections were unlikely to substantially affect decisions by the Trump administration or Israel regarding Iran, because the threats posed by Tehran would remain the primary factor shaping their next steps.

Katulis noted that Trump is experiencing his weakest political position across his two presidential terms, amid declining approval ratings and the possibility that Republicans could lose seats in Congress.

In his view, however, that does not mean the election results will constrain the president's ability to take military action, given the executive branch's broad national security powers relative to those of Congress.

Katulis identified two more consequential factors in the administration's calculations.

The first is a shortage of certain types of ammunition and military equipment following the previous phase of the war, which has left US forces more exposed in the region and elsewhere. The second is the economic cost of another confrontation.

These concerns are particularly significant amid continuing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and global energy markets, as renewed operations against Iranian facilities could cause further disruptions to oil supplies.

As for Israel, Katulis argued that disagreements among political leaders tend to diminish when the perceived Iranian threat is at issue.

Beyond the Ballot Box

Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, went further, dismissing the possibility that the elections would fundamentally change the political dynamics governing decisions about war.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump would remain the ultimate decision-maker regardless of developments in Congress.

Indeed, Rubin suggested that Trump might feel greater freedom to make military decisions after the elections, given that he would not face another presidential election.

In Israel, Rubin argued that widespread opposition to Netanyahu does not necessarily translate into comparable divisions over Iran.

In his assessment, there is broad agreement among Israeli candidates on both the right and left regarding the nature of the threats posed by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.

Rubin also pointed to a striking possibility: Another Israeli prime minister might be able to act more effectively than Netanyahu because some objections from members of Congress, diplomats and foreign ministers are directed more at Netanyahu personally than at Israel itself.

Consequently, Netanyahu's electoral defeat would not necessarily reduce the likelihood of confrontation, just as Republican losses in Congress would not automatically give lawmakers the power to prevent Trump from resuming military operations.

Ultimately, the elections appear more likely to influence the timing of a confrontation than to determine its objectives.

Trump's decision to postpone military action does not mean the military option has been abandoned, just as Israel's preparations do not mean that a final decision to go to war has been made.

Negotiations remain the alternative path, despite continuing disagreements over nuclear concessions and the conditions for ending the war.

The conclusion of the elections could remove one reason for postponement, but it would not eliminate the military, economic and political obstacles.

The central question remains whether Washington will use its military preparations to secure a negotiated settlement or view the failure of diplomacy as justification for resuming the war.

In either case, Trump's decision, rather than election results alone, will be the most influential factor in determining the direction of the crisis.


What's Holding Up Washington's $14 bn Arms Sale to Taiwan?

Washington -- Taipei's most important security backer -- has held off on an arms sale package worth $14 billion. I-Hwa Cheng / AFP/File
Washington -- Taipei's most important security backer -- has held off on an arms sale package worth $14 billion. I-Hwa Cheng / AFP/File
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What's Holding Up Washington's $14 bn Arms Sale to Taiwan?

Washington -- Taipei's most important security backer -- has held off on an arms sale package worth $14 billion. I-Hwa Cheng / AFP/File
Washington -- Taipei's most important security backer -- has held off on an arms sale package worth $14 billion. I-Hwa Cheng / AFP/File

Taiwan has been waiting months for US President Donald Trump to approve a $14 billion sale of weapons and equipment, which the island democracy would use to fend off a potential Chinese attack.

Washington -- Taipei's most important security backer -- has sold many billions of dollars' worth of arms to Taiwan, most recently in December when it approved a record $11.1 billion package, said AFP.

China opposes American military support for Taiwan, which Beijing claims is part of its territory and has threatened to seize with force.

Trump, who last month hailed his "great friendship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping, has resisted US political pressure, including from Republican lawmakers, to give the green light for the current arms package.

AFP takes a look at what's in it and why it's being held up:

- Why is Taiwan buying US arms? -

Taiwan is spending huge sums upgrading its defense capabilities and expanding its domestic weapons production capacity, but it still needs US arms to deter China.

Since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, the United States has stuck to its commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide weapons to Taiwan for its defense.

But Trump said in May that US arms sales to Taiwan could be a bargaining chip with China, setting off alarm bells across the world.

Taipei has reminded Trump of US commitments, and US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have insisted American policy on Taiwan has not changed.

The sale would signal US support for Taiwan and send a message to Beijing that if it launched an attack, it would not face "Taiwan alone", said Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker in President Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party.

- What's in the package? -

Taiwan is developing a multi-layered air defense system, known as the T-Dome, that it hopes could counter a potential Chinese attack.

Patriot missiles, an automated command and control system and a 360-degree air defense radar system are seen as critical components of this system and are among the items in the $14 billion package.

"Together these systems can strengthen the resilience of Taiwan's strategic air defenses," said Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

Money for the weapons system is expected to come from a $25 billion defense spending bill passed by Taiwan's parliament in May after months of political wrangling.

- Why has it been delayed? -

Trump and Xi met in Beijing in May -- the first of four expected meetings for 2026 -- as the rival leaders sought to ease trade tensions between their countries.

Xi issued a blunt warning to Trump that missteps on Taiwan could push the US and China into "conflict".

A record $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan could threaten the US-China trade truce.

"I'm going to make a determination. I'm going to see," Trump said after the summit in response to a question about whether he would go ahead with arms sales to Taiwan.

Rubio said in June that the proposed package was "under review", while officials said in May they were assessing whether American weapons stockpiles were sufficient for its Iran operations.

A US official said recently that the chances of the package being split into smaller chunks "have gone way up".

Some Taiwanese officials have said they do not care if the US bundles the arms into a single package or multiple -- they just want the weapons.

"Militarily... Taiwan is racing against time," said the analyst Su.

"Acquiring weapons is not like ordering at a drive-through. Production, delivery and training all take time before the systems can enter service and become effective."


Israel's Election May Change Its Leader, But Not Iran War Policy

21 October 2026, Israel, Mitzpe Ramon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address during the Israeli army officer course graduation ceremony at the Bahad 1 Officers School. Photo: Kobi Gideon/Israel Gpo via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
21 October 2026, Israel, Mitzpe Ramon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address during the Israeli army officer course graduation ceremony at the Bahad 1 Officers School. Photo: Kobi Gideon/Israel Gpo via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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Israel's Election May Change Its Leader, But Not Iran War Policy

21 October 2026, Israel, Mitzpe Ramon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address during the Israeli army officer course graduation ceremony at the Bahad 1 Officers School. Photo: Kobi Gideon/Israel Gpo via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
21 October 2026, Israel, Mitzpe Ramon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address during the Israeli army officer course graduation ceremony at the Bahad 1 Officers School. Photo: Kobi Gideon/Israel Gpo via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Israel's election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood a distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.

That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel's grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins.

Israel's security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.

The real divide is one of degree rather than direction — how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the analysts said.

From Tehran to Riyadh, Tuesday's election is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is settling into a long confrontation, where wars ‌ebb and flow while ‌the underlying conflicts are unresolved.

"If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do," said Aviv ‌Bushinsky, a ⁠former adviser to Netanyahu. "Expansion ⁠of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue."

"What you see now is what you'll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively," he said. "As long as Iran is in such a situation, it's a waste of time talking about Palestine.”

Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritize “prevention and offence over containment and defense”, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximizing its independence in armaments.

WHY THE COURSE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE

The election pits Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift in policy towards the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further to the right.

“The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further ⁠settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,” he said.

A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might seek to repair ‌Israel's international standing by curbing some settler violence or pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But such changes would ‌be a shift in style rather than substance, al-Khatib said.

In response to Reuters questions on Iran and the West Bank, a State Department spokesperson said Washington would continue to pressure Tehran "as long ‌as Iran devotes its energy revenues to financing attacks on our allies, supporting terrorism around the world, and pursuing other destabilizing actions, we will use all the tools ‌at our disposal to hold the regime accountable."

The spokesperson also said the  United States did not support Israel annexing the West Bank.

"A stable West Bank keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region," they said.

Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel's security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centered on confronting Iran, maintaining "forward defense" and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said ‌growing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence of a "political horizon" had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.

'VENOMOUS OCTOPUS'

Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel's confrontation with Iran has become the organizing ⁠principle of Middle East security, regardless of who ⁠wins the election.

US President Donald Trump's praise of Netanyahu as a "great warrior prime minister" has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.

Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.

"There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran," he said at a military officer graduation ceremony on Wednesday, adding it was his directive to the military, Mossad and other security agencies.

“Completing the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,” he said in another speech this week.

But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views as its core security interests in what it sees as an existential fight. After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies.

"This is a quagmire," Young said. "The Iranians can outlast Trump."

Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran's determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said.