AI Tsunami Plunges Millions into Unemployment

“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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AI Tsunami Plunges Millions into Unemployment

“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)
“Artificial intelligence in the physical world” is displayed on a screen during a conference showcasing advances in autonomous driving technology in California on Dec. 11, 2025. (Reuters)

The year 2025 brought no respite for Lebanese language editor and proofreader Hamida Al-Shaker. Before the year had run its course, her decades-long professional journey was abruptly cut short.

Nearly 60, Al-Shaker had never used artificial intelligence tools or held a conversation with ChatGPT, as millions now do. She was unaware that the technologies rapidly spreading across mobile phones and computers were already doing her job, faster and more efficiently than any human could.

That quiet technological advance proved devastating. A sweeping transformation in the labor market became a tsunami, pushing Al-Shaker and millions of workers worldwide toward unemployment, sparing no sector and few age groups. The impact has been particularly harsh on employees over 50 who failed to keep pace with the accelerating speed of technological change.

According to the website allaboutai, the adoption of artificial intelligence has already contributed to the loss of around 14 million jobs globally. And the wave is far from over. As many as 92 million jobs could disappear worldwide over the next five years.

At its core, artificial intelligence enables computer systems to mimic human thinking, make decisions, and execute complex tasks, from planning to practical application, particularly in editorial and knowledge-based work.

Shock and an uncertain future

Al-Shaker was unaware of this reality, a fact that led to a shock, followed by another, during 2025, which saw the widest spread yet of AI applications. The first shock came when she received a call from the human resources department informing her that her salary would be cut by 50 percent due to “financial difficulties facing the company.” Less than five months later, a second call informed her that she was being laid off, without explanation.

According to Al-Shaker, citing her department head, she was not alone. Half of the team lost their jobs due to the impact of artificial intelligence on client contracts, as companies increasingly turned to AI to draft their news, statements, and reports, either for free or at minimal monthly subscription costs, compared with the sums they previously paid to public relations and advertising agencies.

In this context, economic analyses published by Reuters indicate that annual subscriptions to advanced AI tools, even at the enterprise level, often do not exceed the cost of paying a single employee’s salary for a limited number of months. From a purely managerial perspective, this makes such decisions easy to justify financially.

As a result, Al-Shaker and her colleagues became just another figure in a cold equation. Companies boost profits and cut production costs, while growing numbers of workers are pushed out of the labor market, not because they lack competence, but because algorithms are cheaper than people.

Most affected sectors

Al-Shaker’s story is not an isolated case. It is part of a growing global phenomenon affecting workers across multiple sectors. Specialized reports indicate that jobs based on routine tasks or repetitive data processing are most vulnerable, as automation and generative AI tools expand. Among the most affected sectors are:

Customer service and call centers, where intelligent chat systems and text and voice analysis tools can now handle user inquiries with high efficiency, according to TechRT.

Data and administrative support tasks, such as data entry, file classification, and secretarial work, are being replaced by advanced automation tools, according to Complete AI Training.

Retail and supply chains, where self-checkout systems, smart warehouses, and inventory automation have reduced the need for cashiers and traditional warehouse workers, according to Pleeq Software and ninjatech.blog.

Manufacturing and production, where the spread of robots and automated control systems has intensified the impact of AI on manual labor jobs, according to All About AI.

Accounting and financial operations, where demand for basic roles has declined due to reliance on intelligent financial software capable of handling bookkeeping and routine processes, according to Complete AI Training.

Content creation and media, which have not been spared, are now threatened as AI is capable of writing, summarizing, and rewriting content, posing a challenge to a range of basic writing tasks.

Many workers who lost their jobs do not realize that they are victims of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, which Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum at the time, warned about years earlier.

Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai in 2016, Schwab said the world was “on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another.”

He added that the scale, scope, and complexity of the changes would be unprecedented, and that while their exact shape remained unclear, the response would have to be integrated and comprehensive across the public and private sectors, academia, and civil society.

Market demands and human skills

Much of what Schwab predicted has now come to pass, particularly in recent months, as companies worldwide accelerate their adoption of AI tools. Experience alone is no longer enough to remain competitive in the labor market. Traditional jobs are changing rapidly, and the required human skills have become more specialized and complex, with greater emphasis on working alongside intelligent systems and turning information into added value.

Professionals who understand how to integrate AI tools into their daily work without sacrificing quality or analytical depth are increasingly in demand, according to Maziad Hijaz‏, Editor-in-Chief at Hewar Group‏ in Riyadh.

Hijaz told Asharq Al-Awsat that artificial intelligence has become an essential part of daily work in terms of speed and volume, while review, editing, and analysis remain entirely human responsibilities to ensure quality.

He added that the sector now requires new skills, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind. These include utilizing AI tools for writing and analysis, developing data literacy, employing predictive analysis, and transforming information into compelling narratives. Combining human skills with AI tools is what ensures excellence.

Firas Barakat, a strategic communications expert in Saudi Arabia, said AI represents a pivotal turning point in labor markets, enhancing efficiency while reshaping the nature of jobs and required skills.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Barakat said AI has undoubtedly caused the loss of traditional roles involving routine tasks, but at the same time, it is a major engine for generating new jobs in advanced fields such as data analysis, cybersecurity, smart systems management, and digital solutions engineering, roles that did not exist just a few years ago.

History repeats itself

Technology expert Hassan Yahya, based in the United States, offered a historical perspective. He said this is not the first time the world has been stunned by technological advances, noting that similar fears over job losses have accompanied every major innovation.

He pointed to 1959, when General Motors introduced the industrial robot Unimate, triggering widespread warnings about threats to employment.

Yahya said that AI is already affecting millions of jobs, with projections from the World Economic Forum indicating that 92 million jobs will disappear over the next five years. However, more than 170 million new jobs are expected to be created, meaning a fundamental transformation of work rather than mass unemployment.

He added that eliminating jobs without replacing them does not serve companies or economies, making the creation of new roles inevitable. However, this requires learning how to work with AI, as ignoring the shift could leave many people outside a rapidly changing labor market.

Cost-cutting and profit maximization

The experiences of employees cannot be separated from a recurring economic equation that is evident in thousands of companies worldwide. Instead of retaining experienced staff with associated salaries, insurance, and end-of-service benefits, many firms are opting to replace them with AI.

A World Economic Forum report found that 41 percent of global companies plan to reduce their workforce by 2030 due to increased reliance on AI and automation.

Hijaz said AI adoption has also reshaped relationships with clients, accelerating work and significantly improving quality. He cited a Deloitte study showing that integrating AI into public relations reduced content production time by 25 to 35 percent while improving accuracy.

A market worth billions

The gains are split between business owners and AI companies, whose financial returns contrast sharply with the reality faced by thousands of displaced workers. In mid-2025, a Reuters report stated that OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, had reached annual revenues of around $10 billion by the end of the first half of the year, on track to exceed $12.7 billion by year's end, driven by surging demand for its services.

This growth is not limited to OpenAI. A Forbes report showed that other global technology companies with AI divisions are generating billions of dollars in additional annual revenue, making AI one of the most important profit sources for major tech firms, even as some lay off staff to improve cost efficiency.

Key players

The main players in the sector include OpenAI, best known for ChatGPT and a leader in large language models, with a strategic partnership with Microsoft.

Google DeepMind follows, having developed powerful models such as Gemini and AlphaGo, and leading in scientific, medical, and research-oriented AI.

Microsoft itself has become a global force in AI, investing billions in OpenAI and integrating AI across Windows, Office through Copilot, and Azure AI.

NVIDIA focuses on developing the chips and processors that power AI, while Meta offers open-source models such as LLaMA. Amazon Web Services leads in cloud-based AI, and Anthropic has emerged as a strong competitor in the field of language models.

The global AI market was estimated at around $747.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $2.74 trillion by 2032, according to AffMaven.

Concerns over consequences

The stark contrast between multibillion-dollar AI revenues and the growing risk facing millions of workers raises a central ethical and economic question. Why do companies benefit from technology to cut costs and boost profits while often postponing or ignoring their social responsibility toward displaced employees?

Economists warn that such savings are frequently achieved without genuine retraining efforts or alternative job creation, deepening global unemployment rather than addressing it.

Islam Al-Shafii, an economist based in New York, cited remarks by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Dec. 20, warning of waves of layoffs linked to AI or companies halting job postings for the same reason.

Al-Shafii said the current fear of AI remains precautionary, as it has not yet fully replaced humans. The real risk, he said, is that work previously requiring five employees can now be done by one person using AI.

He added that while some professions remain relatively safe for now, such as skilled trades, concerns persist over safety and decision-making, with international organizations expressing reservations.

Breaking monopolies

Yahya argued that confronting these changes requires breaking three major monopolies: the monopoly of university degrees in hiring, as companies like Google and Dell focus on skills rather than diplomas; the technological monopoly, as AI empowers individuals to execute ideas without large teams; and the language monopoly, as AI allows interaction in native languages, opening the digital economy to millions.

The digital economy is expected to exceed $24 trillion by 2025, accounting for approximately 21 percent of the global economy and growing faster than traditional sectors.

Capitalism under strain

Al-Shafii warned that advanced capitalist societies, which rely heavily on tax revenues from employees, could face systemic strain if jobs are replaced by AI. Without a sufficient tax base, governments may struggle to fund essential services, which can potentially lead to social instability and collapse.

He noted that business owners who once built factories in East Asia for cheap labor are now returning home to rely on robots for production.

United Nations concern

The issue has also reached the United Nations, particularly at its headquarters in New York. Al-Shafii stated that there is a deep concern over AI, but institutions often focus on gains while overlooking the associated losses.

He noted that AI supports many sustainable development goals and cybersecurity efforts, but its negative aspects, including cyber fraud and surveillance risks, have yet to be fully addressed. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has repeatedly warned against militarizing AI and entrusting humanity’s future to algorithms.

Threat or opportunity?

Concerns over AI extend beyond job losses to issues of transparency and information security. Hijaz said AI requires greater responsibility to ensure accuracy and disclosure.

Asked whether AI is a threat or an opportunity, he said it is an inevitable development that must be harnessed. Like the computer and the internet before it, initial fears will likely give way to empowerment.

He added that creativity remains a uniquely human value that AI cannot replace, and that technology enhances rather than eliminates it.

Not a replacement

Translation professor Mohammed Khair Nadman told Asharq Al-Awsat that AI tools now save around 60 percent of time in translation and writing, supporting but not fully replacing human work. He warned that AI can still make serious errors, making human oversight essential.

M. A. Hadi, MD, Head of the Department of Pathology at a hospital in the United States, said that the current wave of misinformation fueled by easy access to online medical content and artificial intelligence "will not last long if simple regulations are put in place".

He explained that reading medical information online or collecting data through AI does not make someone a physician, just as reading news does not make a journalist, nor learning about car engines makes one a mechanic. "In the same way," he noted, "having extensive legal knowledge through AI does not qualify someone to be accepted in court as a lawyer."

Dr. Hadi added that while such knowledge can empower individuals to ask better and more informed questions, it does not replace professional expertise. "AI can help people engage more effectively with professionals and may even push experts to become more transparent and ethical, reducing the space for fraud, middlemen, and bad practices," he said.

Quoting the Arabic proverb "give your bread to the baker, even if he eats half of it", Dr. Hadi stressed that while the "do-it-yourself" mindset has always existed and can be useful, real work must still be done by qualified experts. "Artificial intelligence will likely make professionals better, as general knowledge continues to expand," he said, "but professional training, experience, and licensing cannot and should not be granted to laypeople, even if they are well-read or AI-assisted."

He warned that partial or incomplete knowledge can be more harmful than helpful when applied in practice, concluding that, ultimately, "the evidence is in the results."

A final attempt

Al-Shaker, living in crisis-hit Lebanon without a private sector pension system, believed her regional company job was secure. After losing it, she tried to catch up, creating a LinkedIn account, registering on job platforms, taking free online courses, and sending dozens of resumes, often receiving automated or no responses.

Her story reflects the dilemma of an entire generation pushed out of the market, not due to lack of competence, but because the rules changed abruptly.

She ended with a bitter question: Nearly two centuries after the Industrial Revolution sparked the call, “Workers of the world, unite,” will there now be a call saying, “Employees of the world, unite?”



US-Iran Deal Leaves Major Lebanon Questions Unresolved

Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
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US-Iran Deal Leaves Major Lebanon Questions Unresolved

Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)

A deal between Washington and Tehran that ends the Israel-Hezbollah war leaves many issues in Lebanon unresolved, failing to mention Israel withdrawing from the country or an end to Tehran's support for the armed group.

Under US pressure, Lebanese officials have been holding direct talks with Israel aimed at reaching a separate agreement on ending the hostilities, but Beirut appeared to have been sidelined with the overnight announcement on the regional conflict.

AFP looks at the deal and the questions it raises in Lebanon.

- What does the deal involve? -

Details of the agreement to end the Middle East war on all fronts have not been made public, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have both said it includes Lebanon.

Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war on March 2 with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes.

Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that Lebanon says have killed more than 3,700 people and displaced more than one million others.

An official source told AFP that "Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement or the time of the ceasefire".

Influential Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and intermediary for the group, thanked Washington and Tehran for their "insistence on including... an essential and binding clause on halting the Israeli aggression on all of Lebanon".

Hezbollah on Monday had so far not claimed any fresh attacks on Israeli targets.

- Israeli withdrawal? -

Information circulating about the deal does not mention any Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday said forces would remain in the country indefinitely.

Karim Bitar, a lecturer in Middle East Studies at the Sciences Po University in Paris, said that "the deal does not seem to involve Israel, which immediately meant that it wasn't a party to it... So it's very unlikely that there will be an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon."

Israeli forces control a strip of Lebanese territory running along the entire border.

A Western military source told AFP that Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River at several points, referring to the waterway running about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the frontier but closer in some areas.

"Tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers" are in south Lebanon where they hold some established positions, the source said, adding that Hezbollah still had a presence there.

"It's the biggest invasion since their withdrawal in 2000," the source said, referring to Israel's previous pullout after some two decades of occupation.

Hezbollah says it sent reinforcements south of the Litani after the latest war erupted.

Under a 2024 ceasefire that followed a previous round of hostilities, Hezbollah fighters were supposed to withdraw from the area.

- What future for Hezbollah? -

Washington has pressured Lebanese authorities to disarm Hezbollah for months, but the accord makes no mention of the group.

"Iran doesn't seem to have committed to ending its support and financing for Hezbollah," Bitar said.

Military expert Riad Kahwaji said that "Hezbollah will not agree to give up arms... and this crisis will be protracted."

He said this could lead to political instability and even unrest, "especially now Hezbollah believes that through Iran it has emerged victorious from this agreement, and therefore is going to try and dictate its terms on who rules."

- Lebanon-Israel negotiations? -

Lebanon and Israel have been holding direct talks in Washington since April, seeking to end the hostilities and to separate Lebanon from the regional war.

A new round is scheduled for later this month.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Monday that "we will redouble our efforts" through the Washington negotiations "to secure a full Israeli withdrawal."

But after the Iran-US announcement, some cast doubt on the effectiveness of the bilateral negotiations.

Bitar said that "Lebanon could find itself once again as a scapegoat that pays the price both of American amateurism, Iranian cynicism, Israeli hubris and... the lack of a clear strategy from its own political class."


Lebanese Mourn Homes, Livelihoods Destroyed by Israel in Southern City

 People make their way through the rubble of a destroyed building as residents displaced by fighting return to Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
People make their way through the rubble of a destroyed building as residents displaced by fighting return to Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
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Lebanese Mourn Homes, Livelihoods Destroyed by Israel in Southern City

 People make their way through the rubble of a destroyed building as residents displaced by fighting return to Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
People make their way through the rubble of a destroyed building as residents displaced by fighting return to Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)

When Kamal Kamal heard a ceasefire deal had been agreed between Iran and the United States, he rushed back to the southern city of Nabatieh only to find an Israeli strike had reduced his life's work to rubble.

The city, usually home to some 90,000 people before the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah erupted on March 2, was largely deserted as Israel pressed its military offensive in the area in recent days.

Kamal fought back tears as he stared stunned at the pile of rubble that used to be his roastery and warehouse for coffee and other products, after Israel pummeled the region with strikes and issued sweeping evacuation orders.

"When I opened it in the seventies, I was still a young man... now nothing is left," he said, leaning heavily on a walking stick and surveying the vast destruction.

"How my life has been spent in vain here!"

The war in Lebanon has been included in the framework deal to end the broader Middle East war.

But Lebanon's army on Monday urged displaced residents to delay their return to southern border villages, citing the "risk of Israeli violations and attacks".

Iran-backed group Hezbollah issued a similar warning.

Yet residents who have cautiously returned to Nabatieh have expressed dismay at the huge damage Israel inflicted on the city's neighborhoods and its famed market, where the roofing had collapsed and shops were devastated.

An AFP photographer also saw destruction to homes and businesses in the city, which has served as a hub of economic, social and services activity.

- 'Sorrow and grief' -

The city's municipality said in a statement that it had asked residents not to return "at the present time under any circumstances", citing the security situation.

The Lebanese army had set up a checkpoint at the entrance to the city, advising locals about the roads that they could take as intermittent artillery shelling rang out and smoke rose up.

The flow of residents to Nabatieh picked up later in the day, with people inspecting their homes and properties as heavy machinery worked to remove rubble and clear roads.

In one heavily damaged neighborhood, Rana Nasrallah surveyed her destroyed home, the rubble strewn with clothes, furniture and pot plants.

The 45-year-old had fled with her family to the coastal city of Sidon during the war.

"We grew up in this neighborhood. We used to play here as children. And here's where the older women used to sit and chat, the historic Nabatieh market before us... the landmarks that they perhaps wanted to erase," she said.

"As soon as the ceasefire was declared and before any official (Lebanese) announcement... we got going and came here. We couldn't wait any longer.

"We came to breathe in the scent of our land... even if there are no homes to shelter us and there is no work, still it's a relief for our souls."

In the face of the huge damage in Nabatieh and other south Lebanon towns and villages, including where Israeli forces have carried out sweeping demolitions, Nasrallah still expressed hope of returning permanently.

"Despite the sorrow and grief at seeing the city destroyed... we are filled with hope that we will rebuild," she said.

"Not once did we feel defeated or that we would not triumph, or that we would not return to rebuild Nabatieh."


Ghalibaf: Ambitious ‘Public Face’ of Post-Ali Khamenei Iran

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (R) meets with Pakistan’s Army Chief Syed Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2026. (AFP)
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (R) meets with Pakistan’s Army Chief Syed Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2026. (AFP)
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Ghalibaf: Ambitious ‘Public Face’ of Post-Ali Khamenei Iran

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (R) meets with Pakistan’s Army Chief Syed Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2026. (AFP)
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (R) meets with Pakistan’s Army Chief Syed Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2026. (AFP)

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as the key negotiator and one of the most high-profile figures in the epublic's leadership as it enters a new phase after the US-Israeli war.

A pillar of the Iranian establishment for some three decades and one of its most prominent non-clerical figures, Ghalibaf, 64, had spearheaded the war effort and led the high-stakes negotiating process that culminated with an agreement announced Monday to halt the hostilities.

Ghalibaf survived more than five weeks of US-Israeli attacks on Iran that killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei, top security official Ali Larijani and a host of other key figures.

He came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with the United States, meeting Vice President JD Vance, the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 revolution.

An image published on social media by Iranian embassies abroad put Ghalibaf center stage in the Iranian negotiating team, looking animated and gesturing with his hand, as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi busied himself with teacups.

The workings of the Iranian leadership without Khamenei, who dominated it for nearly four decades, remain unclear.

Khamenei's son Mojtaba was named as his successor but has yet to appear publicly after he was reportedly wounded in an airstrike.

"Following Larijani's assassination, Ghalibaf has emerged as the new public face of the regime's war effort and diplomacy," said Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

"But we shouldn't overstate the extent to which he's in the driver's seat: He still answers to higher powers in Tehran," he added.

These include Mojtaba Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological arm of Iran's military, where Ghalibaf was a key figure as aerospace forces commander, Sabet said.

- 'Professional bargainer' -

While the trip to Islamabad was Ghalibaf's first appearance in public since before the war, he has kept a high profile online with almost daily social media posts, mixing commentary on recent developments and the negotiations with threats of harsh retaliation should the fighting resume.

His posts on X in idiomatic American English have garnered wide attention and raised questions over who is actually writing them, given Ghalibaf is not known to be a fluent English speaker.

Referring to threats of a ground invasion, a post on Ghalibaf's X account said on April 1: "You come for our home... you're gonna meet the whole family. Locked, loaded and standing tall. Bring it on."

The IranWire news site has said the posts appeared to have been written by a former adviser based in the United States, but this has not been confirmed.

While the Islamabad talks failed, The Washington Post reported that Ghalibaf left a striking impression on the US delegation after years when Washington never dealt directly with key Iranian decision makers.

Ghalibaf "impressed the American team as a refined and professional bargainer -- and potential leader of a new Iran", said the Post.

In a sign of his expanding sway, he was appointed in May to oversee Iran's vital relationship with China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.

- 'Ambitious and opportunistic' -

Ghalibaf's varied experience, which spans military and civilian life, has seen him work as a commander in the Revolutionary Guards, Tehran police chief, Tehran mayor and now speaker of parliament.

It is unclear if he is fully trusted by the new hardline hierarchy of the Guards.

Known to be fiercely ambitious, he has stood for the Iranian presidency on multiple occasions but has never been successful, most notably in 2005 when ultra-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, little-known at the time, took the job.

A qualified pilot, Ghalibaf is known for boasting that he is able to captain jumbo jets.

Human rights groups have accused Ghalibaf, in his various functions, of playing a key role in suppressing protests, from the 1999 student demonstrations to the 2009 Green movement that erupted after a disputed election, right up to the nationwide protests that peaked in January 2026, just before the latest war.

"As a politician, he's shown himself to be ambitious and opportunistic, but also cautious, a trait that has helped him advance his career to the top of the country's power structure without getting purged like so many others have been," said Sabet.