A Look at the Violence Flaring in Gaza Months into an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

Ruins of buildings destroyed in Israeli shelling during two years of war... Gaza City on February 4, 2026 (Reuters)
Ruins of buildings destroyed in Israeli shelling during two years of war... Gaza City on February 4, 2026 (Reuters)
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A Look at the Violence Flaring in Gaza Months into an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

Ruins of buildings destroyed in Israeli shelling during two years of war... Gaza City on February 4, 2026 (Reuters)
Ruins of buildings destroyed in Israeli shelling during two years of war... Gaza City on February 4, 2026 (Reuters)

As the bodies of two dozen Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes arrived at hospitals in Gaza on Wednesday, the director of one asked a question that has echoed across the war-ravaged territory for months.

“Where is the ceasefire? Where are the mediators?” Shifa Hospital's Mohamed Abu Selmiya wrote on Facebook.

At least 556 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since a US-brokered truce came into effect in October, including 24 on Wednesday and 30 on Saturday, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza in the same period, with more injured, including a soldier whom the military said was severely wounded when gunmen opened fire near the ceasefire line in northern Gaza overnight.

Other aspects of the agreement have stalled, including the deployment of an international security force, Hamas' disarmament and the start of Gaza's reconstruction. The opening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt raised hope of further progress, but fewer than 50 people were allowed to cross on Monday.

Hostages freed as other issues languish

In October, after months of stalled negotiations, Israel and Hamas accepted a 20-point plan proposed by US President Donald Trump aimed at ending the war unleashed by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel.

At the time, Trump said it would lead to a “Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace."

Hamas freed all the living hostages it still held at the outset of the deal in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and the remains of others.

But the larger issues the agreement sought to address, including the future governance of the strip, were met with reservations, and the US offered no firm timeline.

The return of the remains of hostages meanwhile stretched far beyond the 72-hour timeline outlined in the agreement. Israel recovered the body of the last hostage only last week, after accusing Hamas and other militant groups of violating the ceasefire by failing to return all of the bodies. The militants said they were unable to immediately locate all the remains because of the massive destruction caused by the war — a claim Israel rejected.

The ceasefire also called for an immediate influx of humanitarian aid, including equipment to clear rubble and rehabilitate infrastructure. The United Nations and humanitarian groups say aid deliveries to Gaza's 2 million Palestinians have fallen short due to customs clearance problems and other delays. COGAT, the Israeli military body overseeing aid to Gaza, has called the UN's claims “simply a lie.”

Ceasefire holds despite accusations

Violence has sharply declined since the ceasefire paused a war in which more than 71,800 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. The ministry is part of the Hamas-led government and maintains detailed records seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in the initial October 2023 attack and took around 250 hostage.

Both sides say the agreement is still in effect and use the word “ceasefire” in their communications. But Israel accuses Hamas fighters of operating beyond the truce line splitting Gaza in half, threatening its troops and occasionally opening fire, while Hamas accuses Israeli forces of gunfire and strikes on residential areas far from the line.

Palestinians have called on US and Arab mediators to get Israel to stop carrying out deadly strikes, which often kill civilians. Among those killed on Wednesday were five children, including two babies. Hamas, which accuses Israel of hundreds of violations, called it a “grave circumvention of the ceasefire agreement.”

In a joint statement on Sunday, eight Arab and Muslim countries condemned Israel’s actions since the agreement took effect and urged restraint from all sides “to preserve and sustain the ceasefire.”

Israel says it is responding to daily violations committed by Hamas and acting to protect its troops. “While Hamas’ actions undermine the ceasefire, Israel remains fully committed to upholding it,” the military said in a statement on Wednesday.

“One of the scenarios the (military) has to be ready for is Hamas is using a deception tactic like they did before October 7 and rearming and preparing for an attack when it’s comfortable for them,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesperson.

Some signs of progress

The return of the remains of the last hostage, the limited opening of the Rafah crossing, and the naming of a Palestinian committee to govern Gaza and oversee its reconstruction showed a willingness to advance the agreement despite the violence.

Last month, US envoy Steve Witkoff, who played a key role in brokering the truce, said it was time for “transitioning from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.”

That will require Israel and Hamas to grapple with major issues on which they have been sharply divided, including whether Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will lay down its arms.

Though political leaders are holding onto the term “ceasefire” and have yet to withdraw from the process, there is growing despair in Gaza.

On Saturday, Atallah Abu Hadaiyed heard explosions in Gaza City during his morning prayers and ran outside to find his cousins lying on the ground as flames curled around them.

“We don’t know if we’re at war or at peace,” he said from a displacement camp, as tarpaulin strips blew off the tent behind him.



A Son of Iran’s Late Supreme Leader Is a Possible Candidate to Replace His Father as War Rages

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
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A Son of Iran’s Late Supreme Leader Is a Possible Candidate to Replace His Father as War Rages

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)

Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has long been considered a contender to the post of the country's next paramount ruler — even before an Israeli strike killed his father at the start of the war last week and despite the fact he's has never been elected or appointed to a government position.

A secretive figure within the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since Saturday, when the Israeli airstrike targeting the supreme leader's offices killed his 86-year-old father. Also killed were the younger Khamenei's wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, who came from a family long associated with the country's theocracy.

Khamenei is believed to still be alive and has likely has gone into hiding as American and Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Iran, though state-run Iranian media have not reported on his whereabouts.

Profile of Khamenei's son rises after airstrike

Mojtaba Khamenei's name continues to circulate as a possible candidate to replace his father, something that had been criticized in the past as potentially creating a theocratic version of Iran's former hereditary monarchy.

But now with his father and wife considered by hard-liners as martyrs in the war against America and Israel, Khamenei's stock likely has risen with the aging clerics of the 88-seat Assembly of Experts who will select the country's next supreme leader.

Whoever becomes the leader will gain control of an Iranian military now at war and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used to build a nuclear weapon — should he choose to decree it.

Khamenei had occupied a similar role to that of Ahmad Khomeini, a son of Iran's first Supreme Leader Khomeini — "a combination of aide-de-camp, confidant, gatekeeper and power broker,” according to United Against Nuclear Iran, a US-based pressure group.

Born into dissent

Born in 1969 in the city of Mashhad, some 10 years before the 1979 revolution that would sweep Iran, Khamenei grew up as his father agitated against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran.

An official biography on Ali Khamenei's life recounts one moment when the shah's secret police, the SAVAK, broke into their home and beat the cleric. Woken up after, Mojtaba and the rest of Khamenei's children were told their father was going on vacation.

“But I told them, ‘There is no need to lie.’ I told them the truth,” the elder Khamenei was quoted as saying.

After the fall of the shah, Khamenei's family moved to Tehran, Iran's capital. Khamenei would go on to fight in the Iran-Iraq war with the Habib ibn Mazahir Battalion, a division of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that would see several of its members ascend to powerful intelligence positions within the force, likely with the backing of the Khamenei family.

His father became supreme leader in 1989 and soon Mojtaba Khamenei and his family had access to the billions of dollars and business assets spread across Iran's many bonyads, or foundations funded from state industries and other wealth once held by the shah.

Power rises with his father's

His own power rose alongside his father's, working within his offices in downtown Tehran. US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s began referring to the younger Khamenei as “the power behind the robes.” One recounted an allegation that Khamenei actually tapped his own father's phone, served as his “principal gatekeeper” and had been forming his own power base within the country.

Khamenei “is widely viewed within the regime as a capable and forceful leader and manager who may someday succeed to at least a share of national leadership; his father may also see him in that light,” a 2008 cable read, also noting his lack of theological qualifications and age.

“Mojtaba is, however, due to his skills, wealth, and unmatched alliances, reportedly seen by a number of regime insiders as a plausible candidate for shared leadership of Iran upon his father’s demise, whether that demise is soon or years in the future,” it said.

Khamenei has worked closely with Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, both with commanders of its expeditionary Quds Force and its all-volunteer Basij that violently suppressed nationwide protests in January, the US Treasury has said.

The United States sanctioned him in 2019 during the first term of USPresident Donald Trump over working to “advance his father’s destabilizing regional ambitions and oppressive domestic objectives.”

That includes allegations that Khamenei from behind the scenes supported the election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and his disputed re-election in 2009 that sparked the Green Movement protests.

Mahdi Karroubi, who was a presidential candidate in 2005 and 2009, denounced Khamenei as “a master's son” and alleged he interfered in both votes. His father reportedly at the time said Khamenei was “a master himself, not a master’s son."

Powers of supreme leader at stake

There has been only one other transfer of power in the office of supreme leader of Iran, the paramount decision-maker since the country’s 1979 revolution. Khomeini died at age 86 after being the figurehead of the revolution and leading Iran through its eight-year war with Iraq.

Now the new leader will come on board after the 12-day war with Israel and as a US-Israeli war with Iran is seeking to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and military power, hoping also the Iranian people will rise up against the Iranian theocracy.

The supreme leader is at the heart of Iran’s complex power-sharing theocracy and has final say over all matters of state. He also serves as the commander-in-chief of the country’s military and the Guard, a paramilitary force that the United States designated a terrorist organization in 2019, and which his father empowered during his rule.

The Guard, which has led the self-described “Axis of Resistance,” a series of militant groups and allies across the Middle East meant to counter the US and Israel, also has extensive wealth and holdings in Iran. It also controls the country's ballistic missile arsenal.


Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' under Threat after US-Israeli War

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' under Threat after US-Israeli War

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)

Iran once boasted that it controlled four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa in an alliance dubbed the "Axis of Resistance".

But the network -- long used as a regional force against Israel -- has been weakened since the Gaza war and now risks collapse, upending the regional balance, analysts said.

"The axis of resistance is over," said Atlantic Council researcher Nicholas Blanford.

Two days after Hamas launched its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country's response would "change the Middle East".

Backed by Israel's powerful ally, the United States, the Israeli leader did not just intend to defeat the Iran-backed Palestinian group, but the entire axis.

The weakening of Lebanon's Hezbollah after its 2024 war with Israel and the fall of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad paved the way for Israel to aim directly at Iran.

Since Saturday, the country has been the target of a major US-Israeli offensive, which even killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Most of the axis's members like Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis or Iraqi Shiite groups are "trying to understand how to survive", Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at the Chatham House international affairs think-tank, told AFP.

- 'Defensive approach' -

Since deciding to enter the war by launching rockets at Israel on Monday, Hezbollah brought a major Israeli retaliation, which saw bombings across Lebanon and an Israeli ground incursion to create a buffer zone.

"Naim Qassem doesn't want to get involved in this fight," Blanford, who wrote a book on Hezbollah, said, referring to the group's chief.

However, the analyst said Tehran may have forced Qassem to intervene.

Iraq, a longtime battlefield between Washington and Tehran, saw Iran-backed groups claim dozens of drone attacks on US bases, though many were downed.

To Mansour, these groups lack "the necessary military capabilities to inflict significant damage" while the most prominent ones are now "intertwined in the Iraqi state".

The Houthis in Yemen have so far stayed away from the conflict.

"The Houthis are in a calculated holding pattern, or perhaps a defensive approach," said Ahmed Nagi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

However, Nagi believes that while the axis "is facing an existential threat, that does not necessarily mean it will disintegrate".

"The network operates on more than a military level; its political, social and religious ties remain deeply rooted among its groups and are unlikely to unravel because of battlefield setbacks alone."

The regional upheavals will depend on the outcome of this war, particularly the collapse or survival of the Iranian regime.


Netanyahu’s Political Future at Stake with Iran War, Say Experts

03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
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Netanyahu’s Political Future at Stake with Iran War, Say Experts

03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)

With elections approaching in Israel, the war with Iran has handed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to restore an image deeply scarred by Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, experts say.

But any political dividend would depend on how the conflict unfolds and how long it lasts, they said according to AFP.

A day after Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a wave of US-Israeli strikes, Netanyahu said that his close ties with Washington had enabled Israel to "do what I have long aspired to do for 40 years: to strike the terrorist regime decisively".

The Gaza war, sparked by Hamas's unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, eroded Netanyahu's popularity.

Critics have accused him of seeking to evade responsibility for the authorities' failure to prevent the deadliest day in Israel's history.

At 76, the leader of the right-wing Likud party is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, with more than 18 cumulative years in office across multiple stints.

Known for his political resilience, Netanyahu has been without a parliamentary majority since the summer, amid a crisis with his ultra-Orthodox religious allies.

He is also standing trial in a long-running corruption case and has sought a presidential pardon, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly pressuring President Isaac Herzog to grant one.

- 'Total victory' -

Elections must be held by October 27 at the latest.

Netanyahu will call early elections, says Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University.

"It's obvious. He won't wait until October given the commemoration of the October 7 anniversary," Navon said.

"If Netanyahu was at rock bottom after the Hamas attack, he has since gradually turned the tide," he added, citing heavy blows dealt by the Israeli military to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran since the start of the Gaza war.

A Likud party led by Netanyahu would emerge ahead in elections held today, opinion polls suggest.

That would likely see him tasked with forming the next government, though he would still lack a majority with his current allies.

A victory over Iran could change that calculus, experts say.

"This offensive undeniably reinforces the image Netanyahu seeks to cultivate, the one associated with his 'total victory' slogan," independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.

"Netanyahu wants to show that this is not a campaign slogan but a reality. It is his national agenda and his electoral strategy," he added.

- 'Iran remains Iran' -

Raviv Druker, a prominent journalist on Channel 13 television, argued that Netanyahu "will try to convince people that the victory is total even if that is an illusion," noting that "Hamas still runs Gaza, and Iran remains Iran even after Saturday's strike".

On the popular news website Walla, journalist Ouriel Deskal went further, suggesting Netanyahu may have chosen the timing of the hostilities to automatically delay -- under a state of emergency -- the March 30 deadline for passing a budget for which he has struggled to secure a majority.

Without a budget, the government would fall on April 1 and elections would be called.

In that scenario, Netanyahu would enter the campaign from a position of weakness.

By contrast "if this war against Iran is a success for Israel, it will be a political victory for Netanyahu," Navon said.

But should the war drag on, the picture could shift dramatically, Horowitz warned.

"Public tolerance for a long war with heavy casualties, combined with a high cost of living, remains extremely low," he said.

During the war last June, Iranian missiles killed 30 people in Israel. Since Saturday, 10 people have been killed in Iran's retaliatory strikes.

"Israel's victories are primarily attributed to the army and to civilian resilience, which enabled the country to wage the longest war in its history," Horowitz noted.

"The army's popularity is rising, not necessarily Netanyahu's."