Report: Early War Goal Was to Install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s Leader

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (AFP)
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (AFP)
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Report: Early War Goal Was to Install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s Leader

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (AFP)
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (AFP)

Washington: By Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman

Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.

It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.

But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the US officials who were briefed on it.

Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.

He has not been seen publicly since then and his current whereabouts and condition are unknown.

To say that Mr. Ahmadinejad was an unusual choice would be a vast understatement. While he had increasingly clashed with the regime’s leaders and had been placed under close watch by the Iranian authorities, he was known during his term as president, from 2005 to 2013, for his calls to “wipe Israel off the map.” He was a strong supporter of Iran’s nuclear program, a fierce critic of the United States and known for violently cracking down on internal dissent.

How Mr. Ahmadinejad was recruited to take part remains unknown.

The existence of the effort, which has not been previously reported, was part of a multistage plan developed by Israel to topple Iran’s theocratic government. It underscores how Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel went into the war not only misjudging how quickly they could achieve their objectives but also gambling to some degree on a risky plan for leadership change in Iran that even some of Mr. Trump’s aides found implausible. Some American officials were skeptical in particular about the viability of putting Mr. Ahmadinejad back into power.

“From the outset, President Trump was clear about his goals for Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, dismantle their production facilities, sink their navy, and weaken their proxy,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in response to a request for comment about the regime change plan and Ahmadinejad. “The United States military met or exceeded all of its objectives, and now, our negotiators are working to make a deal that would end Iran’s nuclear capabilities for good.”

A spokesperson for Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, declined to comment.
US officials spoke during the early days of the war about plans developed with Israel to identify a pragmatist who could take over the country. Officials insisted that there was intelligence that some within the Iranian regime would be willing to work with the United States, even if those people couldn’t be described as “moderates.”

Mr. Trump was enjoying the success of the raid by US forces to capture Venezuela’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, and the willingness of his interim replacement to work with the White House — a model that Mr. Trump appeared to think could be replicated elsewhere.

In recent years, Mr. Ahmadinejad has clashed with regime leaders, accusing them of corruption, and rumors have swirled about his loyalties. He was disqualified from numerous presidential elections, his aides were arrested and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s movements were increasingly restricted to his home in the Narmak section of eastern Tehran.

That American and Israeli officials saw Mr. Ahmadinejad as a potential leader of a new government in Iran is further evidence that the war in February was launched with the hopes of installing more pliable leadership in Tehran. Mr. Trump and members of his cabinet have said that the goals of the war were narrowly focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear, missile and military capabilities.

There are many unanswered questions about how Israel and the United States planned to put Mr. Ahmadinejad in power, and the circumstances surrounding the airstrike that injured him. American officials said that the strike — carried out by the Israeli Air Force — was meant to kill the guards watching over Mr. Ahmadinejad as part of a plan to release him from house arrest.

On the first day of the war, Israeli strikes killed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. The strike at Khamenei’s compound in central Tehran also blew up a meeting of Iranian officials, killing some officials whom the White House had identified as more willing to negotiate over a change in government than their bosses.

There were also initial reports at the time in the Iranian media that Mr. Ahmadinejad had been killed in the strike on his home.

The strike did not significantly damage Mr. Ahmadinejad’s house at the end of a dead-end street. But the security outpost at the entrance to the street was struck. Satellite imagery shows that building was destroyed.

In the days that followed, official news agencies clarified that he had survived but that his “bodyguards” — in actuality Revolutionary Guard Corps members who were both guarding him and holding him under house arrest — were killed.

An article in The Atlantic in March, citing anonymous associates of Mr. Ahmadinejad, said that the former president had been freed from government confinement after the strike at his house, which the article described as “in effect a jailbreak operation.”

After that article, an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad confirmed to The New York Times that Mr. Ahmadinejad saw the strike as an attempt to free him. The associate said the Americans viewed Mr. Ahmadinejad as someone who could lead Iran, and had the capability to manage “Iran’s political, social and military situation.”

Mr. Ahmadinejad would have been able to “play a very important role” in Iran in the near future, the associate said, suggesting that the United States saw him as similar to Delcy Rodriguez, who took power in Venezuela after American forces seized Mr. Maduro and has since worked closely with the Trump administration, the person said.

During his presidency, Mr. Ahmadinejad was known both for his hard-line policies and his often outlandish fundamentalist pronouncements, such as his declaration that there was not a single gay person in Iran and his denial of the Holocaust. He spoke at a conference in Tehran called “A World Without Zionism.”

Western satirists lampooned these views, and Mr. Ahmadinejad became something of an unwitting pop culture curiosity, even the subject of Saturday Night Live parodies.

He also presided over the country at a time when Iran was accelerating the enrichment of uranium it could one day use for making a nuclear bomb should it choose to weaponize its program. An American intelligence assessment in 2007 concluded that Iran had, years earlier, frozen its work on building a nuclear device but was continuing the enrichment of nuclear fuel it could use for a nuclear weapon if it changed its mind.

After Mr. Ahmadinejad left office he gradually became something of an open critic of the theocratic government, or at least at odds with Khamenei.

Three times — 2017, 2021, and 2024 — Mr. Ahmadinejad tried to run for his previous job, but each time Iran’s Guardian Council, a group of civilian and Islamic jurists, blocked his presidential campaign. Mr. Ahmadinejad has accused senior Iranian officials of corruption or bad governance and become a critic of the government in Tehran. While he never was an overt dissident, the regime began to treat him as a potentially destabilizing element.
Mr. Ahmadinejad’s ties to the West are far murkier.

In a 2019 interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ahmadinejad praised President Trump and argued for a rapprochement between Iran and the United States.

“Mr. Trump is a man of action,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said. “He is a businessman and therefore he is capable of calculating cost-benefits and making a decision. We say to him, let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two nations and not be shortsighted.”

People close to Mr. Ahmadinejad have been accused of having too close ties to the West, or even spying for Israel. Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s former chief of staff, was put on trial in 2018 and the judge in the case publicly asked about his links to British and Israeli spy agencies, an accusation publicized by state media.

In the past few years Mr. Ahmadinejad has made trips out of Iran that further fueled speculation.

In 2023, he traveled to Guatemala and in 2024 and 2025 he went to Hungary, trips detailed by New Lines magazine. Both countries have close ties to Israel.

The Hungarian prime minister at the time, Viktor Orban, has a close relationship with Mr. Netanyahu. During the trips to Hungary, Mr. Ahmadinejad spoke at a university connected to Mr. Orban.

He returned from Budapest just days before Israel began attacking Iran last June. When that war broke out, he kept a low public profile and posted only few statements on social media.

His relative silence about a war with a country that Mr. Ahmadinejad had long viewed as Iran’s main enemy was noted by many on Iranian social media.

Discussion of Mr. Ahmadinejad on Iranian social media picked up after reports of his death, according to an analysis by FilterLabs, a company that tracks public sentiment. But the discussion declined in the weeks following, mainly amounting to confusion about his whereabouts.

At the outset, Israel envisioned the war unfolding in several phases, starting with air assaults by the United States and Israel plus the killing of Iran’s supreme leaders and the mobilization of Kurds to fight Iranian forces, according to two Israeli defense officials familiar with the operational planning.

Then, the Israeli plan foresaw a combination of influence campaigns carried out by Israel and the Kurdish invasion creating political instability in Iran and a sense that the regime was losing control. In a third stage, the regime, under intense political pressure and the weight of damage to key infrastructure like electricity, would collapse, allowing for what the Israelis referred to as an “alternative government” to be established.

Other than the air campaign and the killing of the supreme leader, little of the plan played out as the Israelis had hoped, and much of it appears in retrospect to have profoundly misjudged Iran’s resilience and the capacity of the United States and Israel to exert their will.

But even after it became clear that Iran’s theocratic government had survived the first months of the war, some Israeli officials continued to express belief in their vision of imposing regime change in Tehran.

David Barnea, Mossad’s chief, told associates in several discussions that he still thought that the agency’s plan, based on decades of intelligence collection and operational activity in Iran, had a very good chance of succeeding had it received approval to move forward.

The New York Times



Israel’s Far-Right Ben-Gvir Seeks New Ground in Election

In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
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Israel’s Far-Right Ben-Gvir Seeks New Ground in Election

In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)

A turbo-charged election campaign by Israel's far-right national security minister has seen gun-shaped keychains distributed to high school students and a promotional video threatening to "put to death" a Palestinian inmate.

His policy pledges include encouraging Palestinians to leave the occupied West Bank and war-ravaged Gaza, as well as enforcing the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks against Israelis.

Days ahead of polls which many Israelis consider crucial to deciding the future character of their country, the divisive influence of Itamar Ben-Gvir -- once considered a provocateur on Israel's extremist fringes -- shows no sign of dimming.

Polls show his Otzma Yehudit, or Jewish Power, party winning eight or nine seats in the 120-member parliament, making it the first time it will win a mandate running as a standalone entity.

In 2022, it was allocated six seats after running on a joint list with other far-right parties.

Ben-Gvir, who has been convicted at least eight times in Israeli courts before becoming minister, on charges including supporting a terror organization and incitement to racism, has become the firebrand face of Israel's far-right -- whose political clout has skyrocketed since joining Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition four years ago.

"In short, he speaks straight. We really love him," 23-year-old Or Nahman told AFP in Jerusalem's bustling Mahane Yehuda market, where a huge banner bearing Ben-Gvir's face hangs over shop stalls.

"We want to fight and vote for a person like this, who serves our ideology and the things we believe in, whether it's the Jewish character of the country, the victory of Israel, strong economic security, whether it's a country where everyone can walk here freely in their land without any fear of anyone," he added.

Nahman's friend, armed with an automatic weapon, smiled in agreement beside him.

As national security minister with responsibility over the police, Ben-Gvir has helped more than 200,000 Israelis gain access to firearms and boasts frequently about the worsening conditions for Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails.

And he has used his place in the cabinet to push the government to take more maximalist positions in Israel's multi-front wars.

He proudly sports a lapel pin in the shape of a hangman's noose after spearheading a death penalty law tailored to apply to Palestinians, popping champagne upon its approval in parliament and celebrating his 50th birthday with a noose-adorned cake.

The lawyer-turned-politician was barred from serving in the military in his youth over his support for extremist right-wing groups.

Now, he says he will demand the defense minister post if Netanyahu's bloc wins again on October 27.

- 'Not a stupid man' -

The upcoming vote is expected to be close, with more than half a million young Israelis due to vote for the first time. Surveys show they overwhelmingly identify as center-right or right-wing.

A poll of 543 first-time voters published by Israeli outlet Ynet showed some 16 percent supporting either Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit or the far-right Religious Zionism party of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

At a mock election event attended by Ben-Gvir and other candidates at a high school near Tel Aviv in September, Otzma Yehudit activists handed out gun-shaped keychains to students -- evoking his liberalization of gun licensing rules.

Footage shared by Ben-Gvir showed dozens of teenage boys dressed in black, cheering and waving the party's flag.

In the run-up to the vote, Ben-Gvir -- who lives in the radical West Bank settlement of Kiryat Arba -- has campaigned in areas outside his traditional support base.

"When you behave like the boss, people respect you," he said at a recent event for English speakers in Tel Aviv, considered Israel's secular, liberal heartland.

Making a heart gesture after walking onto the stage to whistles and applause, Ben-Gvir boasted of demolishing Bedouin homes and cutting food for Palestinian detainees.

"They come in fat and they come out skinny," he bragged, smiling and making a joke about his own weight.

Ben-Gvir recently deleted a heavily criticized AI-generated video showing smiling Palestinians entering an Israeli prison on a conveyor belt, before exiting crying and emaciated.

In October, Israel's elections committee fined the minister over another video showing him confronting a convicted Hamas official in prison and saying he wanted to kill him, ruling that the footage was electoral propaganda.

His latest slew of AI videos included one showing an elderly Palestinian man sitting in the rubble of Gaza before a genie in the form of Ben-Gvir grants his wish to move to Paris. The French government rebuked the video and noted that Ben-Gvir is banned from France.

For punters at the Jerusalem market, the far-right seemed an appealing prospect, although some were concerned by Ben-Gvir's provocative stunts.

"He's too violent," said 42-year-old Shlomo from Ramat Gan, who previously voted for Netanyahu, but this year said he might cast his ballot for Smotrich.

"We need somebody like him," he said, but cautioned that Israel still needed to work with the rest of the world.

Michael, a 37-year-old from Jerusalem, agreed.

"I believe he's not a stupid man, but the fact is he says stupid things to get votes," he said. "It's very effective but it does a lot of damage to Israel's economy and diplomacy."


How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?

A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
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How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?

A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)

Ahead of next month's midterm US elections, Donald Trump has increasingly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for surging energy prices back home, which are causing the president political headaches.

However, analysts say the main driver of higher fuel prices remains the US-Iran war.

- Which Russian sites have been targeted? -

Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russia's energy industry over the past 18 months, seeking to cut the Kremlin's revenues and undermine its ability to finance the war.

The strikes have targeted "mostly refineries", Julien Mathonniere, an economist at Energy Intelligence, told AFP.

On average, one Russian refinery was hit every three days during the first eight months of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.

"Russia's net diesel exports fell by approximately 80 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2026, from around 1.05 million barrels per day to just 200,000 barrels per day," said Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

In response to the disruption in domestic fuel supplies, Moscow introduced a ban on diesel exports from July until the end of October.

- Why does this concern Trump? -

Trump has repeatedly condemned the attacks on Russian refineries, saying Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky disobeyed his orders to halt the strikes.

By contrast, Trump has not commented on the intensification in recent months of Russian strikes against Ukrainian territory, which have caused a surge in civilian casualties.

Trump's frustrations come as the Republicans face dim prospects in the November midterm elections, partly because of soaring fuel prices.

US diesel prices at the pump climbed to a record of $6.53 per gallon at the end of September, up from $3.75 per gallon before the war, according to the American Automobile Association.

Energy price rises are also fueling inflation across the economy.

- What is the Middle East role? -

Ukraine's strikes explain "about one-third of the global diesel shortfall, currently estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day", said Mathonniere.

But "the impact of previous drone strikes (by Kyiv) on global product prices before the Middle East crisis was minimal", James Henderson, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told AFP.

Energy exports from the Gulf have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran from February caused Tehran to respond by choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas transit.

At the same time, maritime freight costs have soared and major refining capacity in the Middle East has been hit, adding to upward pressure on oil prices.

- Can prices fall before midterms? -

Relations between Kyiv and Washington soured further this month after Trump announced a controversial agreement with Moscow to lift certain sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports, supposedly to ease prices.

The US president said Wednesday that he believed an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could be closer than ever, as the Kremlin said it was willing to restart trilateral talks with Kyiv and Washington next month.

For now, however, the strikes continue.

"There's not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Even if the Russia conflict ended or an energy ceasefire was reached, the impact "wouldn't really move the needle massively for the US midterm elections", he added.

Repairs to damaged infrastructure take time, while continued hostilities in the Middle East drive energy prices higher.


‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heard

 Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
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‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heard

 Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)

From blockaded schools in Rome to tent camps in Madrid and street protests in France, young people across Europe are turning their anger on a political class they say is not listening.

Their demands vary, but they are united in wanting to make their often marginalized voices heard, sometimes even with radical methods in the face of heavy-handed policing.

"We are fighting and taking our future in our hands," said Damiano Fusa, 18, a student at Rome's Cavour high school, the first to be occupied in a wave of student takeovers that has spread across the Italian capital.

"We're not represented by anyone," Fusa told AFP, criticizing both Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's hard-right coalition and previous center-left governments for cutting education funding and ignoring young people's needs.

Hundreds of thousands of high school and university students have rallied in France, Italy, Spain and other European countries in recent weeks, with some protests descending into violence.

Governments have largely focused on restoring order, with France imposing partial curfews and Italy deploying soldiers, responses protesters say obscure their demands and could make things even worse.

"Politicians are responding in ways that are completely disconnected from reality, completely absurd," said Luis Marques, a 19-year-old psychology student in Lisbon.

Students are demanding action on soaring rents, more spending on education instead of defense and more job opportunities for young people.

But experts say the unrest reflects a broader sense among many young Europeans that they have been shut out of politics and sidelined.

"These young people do not just feel like they do not have a place in politics, they feel they are not being heard at all," said Geoffrey Pleyers, president of the International Sociological Association.

Rosario Forlenza, a professor at Rome's Luiss University, called it a "European generational revolt" rooted in a social and economic crisis "to which politicians cannot give a substantive response".

"Young people are a minority of the population that is shrinking and so their social, economic, cultural, political and electoral weight is becoming ever more irrelevant," he said.

- 'Inspiring other people' -

The anger has been particularly palpable in France and Italy, where fresh demonstrations are planned for Saturday.

"People are very angry, they've had enough. Working hard all day and still not being able to fill up their shopping cart," a 20-year-old student who gave his name as Eddy told AFP at a protest in Bordeaux last weekend.

"Will smashing everything change anything? I think it can be a jolt to wake up the politicians. We don't know what else to do to make ourselves heard. The ballot box? We don't believe in it anymore," he said.

Protest movements across Europe are increasingly drawing inspiration from one another, and even looking to youth-led movements further afield in places like Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

In Italy, one student slogan last week urged protesters to "do as in France", while shared symbols, including the Jolly Roger pirate flag, have become common across youth rallies.

Marcos Navarro, 22, a laboratory quality-control technician from Madrid, said protesters across Europe were meeting to share tactics.

"They've come to ask us: 'How did you do it? How do you organize yourselves?' We've already exchanged ideas," said Navarro, who has been camping with hundreds of others in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol square since September to protest housing costs and evictions.

Ayla Herrero, a 26-year-old anthropologist helping at the camp's infirmary, said it was "inspiring for us to know that we're inspiring other people, that it doesn't just stay here".

- 'Not acceptable' -

Concern about the rise in military spending in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also been a rallying point.

Nikos Mavroudis, a 17-year-old high school student in Athens' Exarchia neighborhood, said the money could be better spent on his school, where chunks of plaster are falling.

"It's not acceptable for classrooms to be dangerous," said Mavroudis, who hopes to become a cook and plans to move elsewhere in Europe to "countries where things are better".

At Rome's occupied Morgagni high school, where students have barricaded entrances with desks, protesters pointed to the crumbling infrastructure as evidence of neglect.

An 18-year-old, who did not want to be named, said the media and politicians in Italy were focusing too heavily on looting and vandalism by some protesters.

"It turns hatred against the students who are victims of this system," he said.

Asked about the violence, Sabrina Brizzola, 24, coordinator of the Italian University Students' Union, said organizations like hers should "organize and channel this generational rage".

"We have shared concerns, even if our ways of protesting differ," she said.