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US-Iran Deal Leaves Major Lebanon Questions Unresolved

Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
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US-Iran Deal Leaves Major Lebanon Questions Unresolved

Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced families drive past a man holding the Hezbollah party flag as they drive along the highway through the area of Jiyyeh as they return to their home villages in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. (AFP)

A deal between Washington and Tehran that ends the Israel-Hezbollah war leaves many issues in Lebanon unresolved, failing to mention Israel withdrawing from the country or an end to Tehran's support for the armed group.

Under US pressure, Lebanese officials have been holding direct talks with Israel aimed at reaching a separate agreement on ending the hostilities, but Beirut appeared to have been sidelined with the overnight announcement on the regional conflict.

AFP looks at the deal and the questions it raises in Lebanon.

- What does the deal involve? -

Details of the agreement to end the Middle East war on all fronts have not been made public, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have both said it includes Lebanon.

Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war on March 2 with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes.

Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that Lebanon says have killed more than 3,700 people and displaced more than one million others.

An official source told AFP that "Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement or the time of the ceasefire".

Influential Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and intermediary for the group, thanked Washington and Tehran for their "insistence on including... an essential and binding clause on halting the Israeli aggression on all of Lebanon".

Hezbollah on Monday had so far not claimed any fresh attacks on Israeli targets.

- Israeli withdrawal? -

Information circulating about the deal does not mention any Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday said forces would remain in the country indefinitely.

Karim Bitar, a lecturer in Middle East Studies at the Sciences Po University in Paris, said that "the deal does not seem to involve Israel, which immediately meant that it wasn't a party to it... So it's very unlikely that there will be an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon."

Israeli forces control a strip of Lebanese territory running along the entire border.

A Western military source told AFP that Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River at several points, referring to the waterway running about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the frontier but closer in some areas.

"Tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers" are in south Lebanon where they hold some established positions, the source said, adding that Hezbollah still had a presence there.

"It's the biggest invasion since their withdrawal in 2000," the source said, referring to Israel's previous pullout after some two decades of occupation.

Hezbollah says it sent reinforcements south of the Litani after the latest war erupted.

Under a 2024 ceasefire that followed a previous round of hostilities, Hezbollah fighters were supposed to withdraw from the area.

- What future for Hezbollah? -

Washington has pressured Lebanese authorities to disarm Hezbollah for months, but the accord makes no mention of the group.

"Iran doesn't seem to have committed to ending its support and financing for Hezbollah," Bitar said.

Military expert Riad Kahwaji said that "Hezbollah will not agree to give up arms... and this crisis will be protracted."

He said this could lead to political instability and even unrest, "especially now Hezbollah believes that through Iran it has emerged victorious from this agreement, and therefore is going to try and dictate its terms on who rules."

- Lebanon-Israel negotiations? -

Lebanon and Israel have been holding direct talks in Washington since April, seeking to end the hostilities and to separate Lebanon from the regional war.

A new round is scheduled for later this month.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Monday that "we will redouble our efforts" through the Washington negotiations "to secure a full Israeli withdrawal."

But after the Iran-US announcement, some cast doubt on the effectiveness of the bilateral negotiations.

Bitar said that "Lebanon could find itself once again as a scapegoat that pays the price both of American amateurism, Iranian cynicism, Israeli hubris and... the lack of a clear strategy from its own political class."

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Battered by War, Iran’s Rulers Wary of More Economic Pain and Unrest if US Tightens Pressure

People walk in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, August 17, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
People walk in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, August 17, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Battered by War, Iran’s Rulers Wary of More Economic Pain and Unrest if US Tightens Pressure

People walk in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, August 17, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
People walk in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, August 17, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war with the United States, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment by Donald Trump could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the regime’s legitimacy.

The US president vowed on Friday to hit Iran hard economically, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose measures on Tehran that have "never been seen" as early as next week. Washington has not said what those measures will entail.

For all the bravado of Iran's leaders after holding out in nearly six months of conflict and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil supply route, they face mounting pressure at home that could result in nationwide unrest, according to three Iranian officials.

The officials, two political insiders, a former Iranian official and a dozen ordinary Iranians spoke to Reuters for this story on condition of anonymity, either for fear of retribution or because they are not authorized to speak to media.

Iran entered the war with high inflation, a weakening currency, energy shortages, sanctions and deep structural weaknesses, and must now contend with damaged infrastructure, disrupted trade, lost production and the cost of rebuilding.

Arshia, a civil engineer, spent a decade working in Iran’s construction industry before the war that began with US and Israeli attacks on February 28 brought projects largely to a standstill.

He is now struggling ‌to find work as ‌projects are delayed or cancelled and costs soar, with little prospect of a rapid recovery.

"I’m worried. If Trump imposes ‌more sanctions, ⁠how will ordinary ⁠people survive? I don’t want my country to be punished militarily or economically. We’re already struggling,” said the father of two from the central city of Isfahan.

His plight reflects a broader reality across Iran, where US strikes damaged factories, power plants, transport networks and other critical infrastructure, adding to pressure on an already strained economy.

Mohsen, 53, was forced to shut his small import-export business with Gulf countries after Iran retaliated against US strikes by targeting American bases and assets in the region.

"I had to lay off 10 employees. It was painful, but I had no choice. I could no longer afford to pay their salaries, and now I’m relying on my savings to support my family," he said from the southern port city of Bandar Abbas.

INFLATION, UNCERTAINTY HIT HOUSEHOLDS

Iran’s annual inflation rate reached 66% in July, while consumer prices were 87.9% higher than a year earlier, according to Iran’s Statistical ⁠Center. Food inflation hit 128% year-on-year.

For Iran’s rulers, the greater threat may be not economic pain itself, but the risk ‌that worsening hardship reignites mass unrest, said the two insiders and one official.

The appointment of Hossein Taeb ‌last week, a key architect of past crackdowns, to lead Iran’s Basij militia is one of the clearest signs yet of growing concern over a resurgence of unrest, a former reformist ‌official said.

The Basij, a paramilitary volunteer militia, is affiliated with Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards, which have both been used by the clerical rulers to quell protests.

Economic ‌grievances have repeatedly spilled into nationwide protests in Iran in recent years.

In January, nationwide protests over economic hardships were crushed by the IRGC and the Basij force, with thousands killed.

In recent months, Iran’s clerical rulers have responded to fears of renewed unrest with executions, arrests, summonses and lengthy prison sentences targeting journalists, lawyers, activists, human rights advocates and students, rights groups say.

Officials say the measures are needed to maintain stability during wartime. Critics say they could deepen the divide between the clerical establishment and a public frustrated by rising economic pressures.

SALARY 'GONE WITHIN DAYS'

Families are cutting ‌back on meat and other staples, opting for cheaper alternatives.

"I’m ashamed in front of my children. My salary is gone within days. Meat and chicken have disappeared from our table. I have no idea how we’re going to ⁠get by," said Hossein, a government employee in ⁠the central city of Yazd.

Rents rose 31% year-on-year in March, according to the Statistical Centre, while state media reported Tehran housing prices at roughly 50% above last year.

Iran’s minimum wage was raised by about 60% this year, but continued rial depreciation has eroded purchasing power, with the dollar value of the minimum wage falling from about $105 to $86 since late March.

Bijan, 40, earned about $1,000 a month as an engineer when he entered the job market 15 years ago. He has since turned to online tutoring to make ends meet. Now, he and his wife struggle to make about $400 a month and have left Tehran for a cheaper province.

"I used to work maybe five or six hours a day ... Now, it’s all work or looking for work, or feeling anxious about not having enough work," said Bijan.

For many Iranians, fear of renewed conflict has made planning for the future increasingly difficult.

US NAVAL BLOCKADE RATCHETS UP COSTS

Iran has sought to keep essential goods moving through alternative routes, including land corridors and the Caspian Sea, but those alternatives are also coming under strain.

Strikes on bridges have disrupted overland transport, increasing the cost and time needed to move goods into Iran.

President Masoud Pezeshkian last week acknowledged the squeeze, saying: “Our problems have multiplied several times over, while our income has also fallen.”

Goods that once arrived by ship now take longer routes into Iran, driving up prices, he said, adding that Iran is selling less oil and collecting less tax revenue from damaged or struggling businesses.

The blockade has also effectively cut off Iran’s gasoline imports, lawmaker Reza Sepahvand told Iran's ILNA news agency on Saturday, adding that Iran’s daily gasoline output had reached its limit at about 130 million liters, compared with consumption of 137 million liters.

Features

Trump Wants More Economic Pressure on Iran. What Are his Options?

US President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy Center for Training and Intelligence in Garden City, New York, on August 14, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP)
US President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy Center for Training and Intelligence in Garden City, New York, on August 14, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP)
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Trump Wants More Economic Pressure on Iran. What Are his Options?

US President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy Center for Training and Intelligence in Garden City, New York, on August 14, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP)
US President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy Center for Training and Intelligence in Garden City, New York, on August 14, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP)

US President Donald Trump on Friday vowed to hit Iran hard economically, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington would impose measures on Tehran that have "never been seen" as soon as next week.

The United States, United Nations and European Union have applied sanctions, implemented trade embargoes and frozen assets since the late 1970s over Iran's nuclear program, human rights violations and support for militant groups.

Since the Iran war began in February, Washington has levied additional maritime, energy and financial sanctions and started a naval blockade.

Data from the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) shows the agency has imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft since Trump began his second term.

Recent measures have targeted Iran's shadow oil fleet; shipping insurers; entities and people enabling Iran's acquisition of weapons; and digital exchanges, freezing an estimated $500 billion in Iran-linked cryptocurrency.

According to Reuters, experts say the Trump administration also can try these options:

SANCTIONS ON CHINESE 'TEAPOT' REFINERS

Chinese independent refineries known as "teapots" account for a quarter of Chinese refinery capacity. They operate with narrow and sometimes negative profit margins.

China buys more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, according to 2025 data from analytics firm Kpler. Independent refiners absorb much of this trade, exposing them to so-called secondary measures that penalize entities helping a primary sanctions target.

Past ⁠US sanctions have ⁠deterred larger independent refiners from buying Iranian oil. But the independent refineries are somewhat immune since they have little exposure to the US financial system, sanctions experts say.

SANCTIONS ON CHINESE BANKS

OFAC has imposed secondary sanctions on smaller China- and Hong Kong-based entities accused of processing billions of dollars in Iranian oil and helping to fund weapons procurement.

Treasury has warned two larger Chinese banks they could face secondary sanctions if Iranian funds were found moving through their systems, but has stopped short of designating them.

Hitting those two banks, which US officials have not publicly identified, or imposing other sanctions could have a chilling effect on bigger financial institutions, sanctions experts said, although they warned it could ⁠also trigger retaliatory actions by Beijing.

Trump administration officials have sought to play down tensions between Washington and Beijing ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping later this year.

They worry that China could curtail exports of critical minerals that are essential to advanced technology production at a time when the US and Western allies are still trying to develop their own supplies.

'WHACK-A-MOLE'

The United States could continue targeting Iranian individuals and entities, as well as others in China and the Gulf, that are helping Tehran evade sanctions to collect revenues for its war effort.

Treasury recently issued sanctions against firms that are springing up to facilitate Iran's trading of oil revenue for imports. But such measures amount to a "whack-a-mole" approach that has not altered Iran's behavior, said Brett Erickson, managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, noting that Tehran simply creates new entities to replace them.

Miad Maleki, a sanctions expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Bessent was likely signaling a sharpened enforcement push against oil shippers, purchasers and currency exchangers who help Iran pay for ⁠its imports.

Further aviation sanctions were ⁠also possible, aimed at degrading Iran's ability to move trade now that the US has blockaded shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, he added.

LAND BLOCKADE

Some US and Israeli officials have floated the prospect of a land blockade, which would require assistance from Iran's neighbors: Iraq, Türkiye, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The Trump administration has varying degrees of closeness with all those countries except Afghanistan, but that border is mountainous and extremely difficult to patrol anyway.

SECONDARY TARIFFS

Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs on goods from countries that do business with Iran, although the Supreme Court struck down the legal basis for such taxes.

The Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill last week that included new Iran sanctions and would give Trump new tariff powers that he could potentially use against countries that aid Iran's commerce and weapons procurement. That legislation must still pass the US House of Representatives, which could prove challenging given widespread concerns among Democrats and some Republicans about the tariff measures.

Features

The Ukrainian Social Media Channels Tracking Russian Missiles

Ukrainians use Telegram channels to track incoming Russian missiles and drones. Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP
Ukrainians use Telegram channels to track incoming Russian missiles and drones. Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP
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The Ukrainian Social Media Channels Tracking Russian Missiles

Ukrainians use Telegram channels to track incoming Russian missiles and drones. Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP
Ukrainians use Telegram channels to track incoming Russian missiles and drones. Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP

The chances of a missile attack on Kyiv that night were around 50 percent, according to the administrator of a social media channel monitoring Russian air raids.

His channel, Aeris Rimor -- roughly derived from the Latin for Searcher of the Skies -- is one of dozens sending real-time messages about incoming drones and missiles.

Ukrainians consult them to track potential Russian attacks, like people check weather applications for storms but with less certainty, shorter warning, and deadly stakes.

During one recent overnight attack, AFP journalists were granted rare access to shadow "Esko", the channel's administrator, on condition that his identity and some details of the operation remained undisclosed.

The 19-year-old, sporting a budding beard, usually operates from home, filling lulls by watching the TV show Criminal Minds or honing his drone-flying skills on a simulator.

Twenty-six minutes after midnight, the air raid alert rang, soon followed by a red dot glitching across the map on a screen in front of him.

"Oh, a missile on Kyiv," he said.

Switching to Telegram, he sent a message to 150,000 followers: "KYIV TARGET!"

"It's going to hit Kyiv in about a minute," he said.

He then sent out the names of the districts being targeted, quietly lamenting a few typos.

Seconds later, explosions echoed over the capital.

The red dot disappeared from the map, only for another to pop up shorty after.

"You have to literally stay on duty and stare at the screen the whole time, because you can easily miss it," said Esko, who did not appear to struggle, even late into the night.

Esko was looking at a live map used by Ukraine's air defense units.

Red icons -- depicting Russian drones -- were dotted across the map and disappeared as they were downed by Ukraine's air force.

- Bedtime dilemma -

The channels are tolerated by authorities but operate in a legal grey area as they use information from air force contacts.

Esko would not reveal publicly how he accessed the map.

In its nightly attacks, Moscow increasingly fires ballistic missiles, flying up to thousands of kilometers (miles) per hour and reaching Kyiv within three minutes of an air raid warning.

This poses a haunting dilemma for those in the capital.

Either go to a shelter -- the metro or a basement -- in advance, accepting a disrupted and uncomfortable night of half-sleep.

Or stay home and face the risk of a hit, particularly dangerous for those in high-rise buildings in heavily targeted districts.

Sometimes authorities warn hours before a likely attack.

Telegram channels -- sifting through intelligence data -- close the information gap, putting out daily forecasts on the probability of different types of attacks.

Esko said people often reach out asking for advice.

"You can only say: something might happen... but decide for yourselves."

On a recent night in Kyiv when there were mixed signals about a Russian strike, Kateryna Reshetnyk had gone down to the subway.

She based her decision on "a parallel analysis of several channels that have been posting truthful information for a long time."

She had set up folding chair next to the turnstiles with her mother and grandmother -- their beds for the next hours.

"But no one knows for sure what will happen or not. You just rely on your intuition and survival instinct," the 34-year-old said.

- 'Tension rising' -

Hundreds of others, armed with mats, tents and pillows, had done the same.

Dogs snored next to their owners, who were glued to their phones, screens lighting up weary faces.

"We track what's happening and where, because our relatives, friends and colleagues are all over Kyiv and the region, so at least we understand what is happening and where," Reshetnyk said.

The night passed without a major strike.

Ukraine's air force grudgingly tolerates the monitoring channels.

"We can't ban them. They exist, they inform the public, for some people that's convenient," spokesman Yuri Ignat told AFP.

But he warned those running them not to post "excess information ... that the enemy can use against us."

With people making potentially life-or-death decisions based on his posts, Esko said he felt the weight of responsibility.

Much of his life now is spent at the screen, tracking hundreds of drones on only a few hours sleep.

But he prefers busy nights, rather than uneasy periods of calm when Russia is stockpiling for future attacks.

"You keep waiting, waiting, waiting, and then you start posting warnings because the tension is rising. And still, nothing happens. You post again, and nothing happens..."

"And then they hit."