Rebuilding War-Torn Syria Through Opaque Real Estate Development

Widespread destruction in the Yarmouk Palestinian Camp in Damascus (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Widespread destruction in the Yarmouk Palestinian Camp in Damascus (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Rebuilding War-Torn Syria Through Opaque Real Estate Development

Widespread destruction in the Yarmouk Palestinian Camp in Damascus (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Widespread destruction in the Yarmouk Palestinian Camp in Damascus (Asharq Al-Awsat)

On the Southern Ring Road in the Syrian capital, Damascus, Najah Hassan waves at passing cars, hoping one will take her to the turnoff for her hometown of Daraya, where large areas remain either completely or partially destroyed by the war. Once inside a car, she begins describing the hardships of displacement and her inability to repair her home in Daraya's Shamiyat neighborhood, which was damaged by shelling.

She says she is forced to move between her two daughters' homes because she cannot afford to rent even a single room in neighborhoods around the capital.

A striking contrast is visible on either side of the road dividing the area. To the south, the destruction of Daraya stretches across the horizon. To the north, the residential buildings of the Mezzeh district and the towers of the Marota City project rise into view. Syrian authorities have resumed work on the development, which was originally launched under the previous government.

Najah, who lost both her husband and son during the war, points toward the towers with regret.

"Building homes for displaced families is more important than building luxury towers for the wealthy who never lost their homes or their livelihoods."

The contrast is evident across Damascus, where two realities appear to belong to different countries. Billboards advertise modern residential compounds and luxury apartments, promoted as symbols of a new life with promises of comfort, investment opportunities, and a more prosperous future. Yet just a few yards away, entire neighborhoods still bear the scars of war, with widespread destruction and districts that have yet to see reconstruction projects or even basic infrastructure restored.

This gap between the image promoted by real estate development projects and the reality facing much of Syria's population raises questions that go beyond architecture and urban planning. It has prompted debate over the selective nature of these projects, their economic and social priorities, who stands to benefit from them, and whether they reflect the country's actual housing needs.

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government, discussion of investment and development projects gained momentum. Many Syrian families hoped the new authorities would make addressing the country's severe housing crisis a priority by launching a genuine reconstruction plan that would help end years of displacement, homelessness, and the burden of rising rents.

That optimism quickly faded as the government's strategy came to rely on attracting domestic and foreign real estate investment companies. These firms have focused on building large new residential developments where only wealthy buyers can afford to purchase apartments, while families whose homes were destroyed have largely been left to face their circumstances on their own.

Modern buildings where construction has resumed within gated residential developments on the outskirts of the Syrian capital, Damascus (Asharq Al-Awsat)

"Yaafour 963"... A $300,000 Apartment

Among the real estate developments that have been promoted in recent months is Yaafour 963, located west of Damascus along the Damascus-Beirut highway. The project was launched by Invest Group Overseas, an investment firm headquartered in Dubai.

According to the real estate platform Al Masdar Al Aqari, the development spans nearly 144,000 square meters and consists of 13 buildings, including 12 residential buildings and a social club. More than 75 percent of the total area has been allocated to green spaces, open areas, and shared amenities.

The project's total investment value has not been disclosed. However, the platform said it includes 1,280 residential units, ranging from two, three, and four-bedroom apartments to penthouses.

Apartments in the development, which offers a wide range of facilities and services, start at $300,000 for a two-bedroom unit. Such apartment sizes do not meet the needs of the average Syrian family, while their prices are far beyond what most households can afford.

In a country where the monthly salary for most public sector employees does not exceed $150, while the basic monthly living expenses for even a small family are estimated at around $500, a price tag of $300,000 is far beyond reach.

With hopes fading for a government-led reconstruction effort or investment-backed projects aimed at rebuilding devastated areas, many families have found themselves with little choice but to return to damaged homes after carrying out limited repairs at their own expense, often financed through irregular money transfers from relatives abroad.

Questionable Investment Deals in Jobar

Residents and local officials in Jobar, a historic and economically significant suburb northeast of Damascus, say they have been presented with investment offers from unidentified companies in which the government acts as an intermediary rather than a guarantor.

Eymen al-Dasuqi, a senior researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies who recently conducted a field visit to war-damaged areas, said one company has begun offering settlements to property owners in Jobar regarding their real estate. Under the proposed arrangements, owners of properties officially registered in the land registry would receive only 50 percent of the value of their holdings, while agricultural landowners would be offered 35 percent of the value of their land.

Al-Dasuqi said the mechanism has raised concerns that residents could lose ownership of their properties or see their real estate rights diminished through reconstruction projects. Some view the model as a way of consolidating privately owned properties while compensating owners for only a portion of their value.

It is widely rumored that businessmen with ties to the former government are behind these companies or hold significant stakes in them. As a result, many Jobar residents say their objections to the company's proposal go beyond legal and technical concerns and extend to the individuals involved.

High-rise towers and luxury apartments await affluent buyers (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Al-Dasuqi added that, based on the company's market assessment, the proposed sale price for residential units is about $1,000 per square meter, well beyond the purchasing power of Jobar's residents, most of whom remain displaced.

He attributed the high price to the structure of real estate development projects in war-damaged areas. Under these arrangements, investment companies are expected to finance the restoration of basic services to compensate for the government's limited role. The cost is then passed on through higher housing prices and by acquiring stakes in land through partnership agreements with property owners.

Government as an Intermediary for Investors

The government is seeking to position itself as an intermediary that persuades investors to rebuild war-damaged areas while responding to pressure from communities that endured years of conflict and are seeking compensation. At the same time, it has announced a plan to close displacement camps, making investor-led construction in cleared areas its preferred approach.

However, what appears to be a pragmatic strategy has directed development projects toward higher-income buyers, while sidelining a large segment of rightful property owners with limited incomes.

Al-Dasuqi said this model is unlikely to achieve "social stability."

"The government genuinely wants to rebuild the destroyed areas and may encourage such projects, but it has no authority to compel investors to work there. Investors put forward proposals that align with their own economic interests," he said.

He added that the relevant government bodies, including the Damascus Governorate, the Ministry of Housing, and the Ministry of Local Administration, have been trying to persuade residents of war-damaged areas to accept the offers made by investment companies, arguing that they may represent the best available option.

According to al-Dasuqi, another explanation for the state's reluctance to take on reconstruction directly is the view that its role is limited to regulating the process by issuing laws and legislation and attracting investment proposals, rather than carrying out reconstruction itself or providing basic services. Under this approach, those responsibilities are left to the domestic and foreign private sector.

At the same time, luxury cities are being developed to serve what al-Dasuqi describes as a new social class in Syria, the "newly wealthy." He said this group accumulated substantial wealth during the war through large-scale real estate projects in parts of northern Syria and now represents an estimated 1 to 3 percent of the population. The target market also includes Syrians living abroad, the large Syrian diaspora in Europe that has become integrated into the European economy, and foreign investors seeking a foothold in Syria.

Al-Dasuqi said such large-scale developments meet the needs of only a limited segment of the population, which could be accommodated with the construction of around 100,000 housing units. Meanwhile, the housing crisis facing 3 million internally displaced people and 5 million refugees remains unresolved.

Marota City and Decree 66

The involvement of new companies in real estate development projects in war-damaged areas is not a new phenomenon in Syria. In 2012, the Assad government issued the controversial Decree 66, officially presented as a plan to redevelop informal settlements and unregulated housing areas.

Since the fall of the former government, debate over the decree has resurfaced, particularly in connection with the two redevelopment zones established under it. The first covers the southeastern Mezzeh and Kafr Sousa area, later renamed Marota City, including what is commonly known as the Mezzeh Orchards and parts of Kafr Sousa. The second is located south of the Southern Ring Road and was later named Basilia City.

Property owners in both areas who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, along with Syrian legal experts and international human rights organizations, said the former government's objective in issuing Decree 66 was to strip residents of their property, displace them, and alter the demographic composition of the two areas.

According to international reports published in 2018, "Decree 66 punishes displaced people and obstructs investigations into war crimes." The reports also said the former government "used the decree to confiscate property and displace residents."

In June 2020, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on former Damascus Governor Adel al-Olabi for his role in overseeing Damascus Cham Holding and the Marota City and Basilia City real estate developments. It described the project as "the largest real estate investment in Syria, worth millions of dollars," and said it was intended to reshape the area's demographics into "a wealthy population that is politically loyal to the regime."

Property Owners Seek Changes to Decree 66

Following the fall of the former government in 2024, original landowners in the Marota City and Basilia City development areas have expressed hope that the Syrian authorities will repeal or amend Decree 66 to restore the rights of the original owners after what they describe as years of injustice under the ousted government. Instead, Damascus Governorate has continued implementing the decree, prompting growing frustration among residents, who have staged protests demanding fair treatment.

Bashir Baalbaki, one of the original landowners in the Mezzeh Orchards area, told Asharq Al-Awsat that "under the former government, the governorate returned only 17 percent of our land to the original owners. That is the height of injustice."

Baalbaki added, "The replacement housing was supposed to be provided free of charge and within the same area. However, the governorate failed to honor that commitment, both in terms of location and compensation. Instead, property owners received a modest annual rental allowance that did not come close to compensating them for their property rights."

Following the change in government, the governorate increased the rental allowance by a factor of 35. However, Baalbaki said it "still does not reflect current rental and real estate market prices, especially given the enormous inflation. The governorate also promised to provide replacement housing in a neighboring area, but the units would be delivered unfinished and at a price that remains unknown to this day."

Residents return to their war-damaged homes, making whatever repairs they can to avoid soaring rents (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Targeting "Revolution Strongholds" Through the Law

Moatasim al-Sioufi, director of the Syria-based organization The Day After, which has conducted research on property rights and real estate development projects, said the core problem with Decree 66 and Law No. 10 of 2018 is that they "were issued under extraordinary circumstances during the years of the uprising , and were used by the former government against areas that had risen up against it. Those areas were strongholds of the uprising , and the laws were used to alter their identity and demographic character."

Al-Sioufi told Asharq Al-Awsat that property owners were subjected to "significant abuse," noting that many original owners were unable to prove ownership because of the circumstances at the time. He also said there were numerous cases of forced property sales. According to al-Sioufi, several prominent figures from the former government, including Asma al-Assad and businessmen Samer Foz and Hossam al-Qaterji, held major stakes in the Marota City towers, and those holdings have since been placed under the management of the Sovereign Fund.

Explaining what he describes as the mechanism behind the process, al-Sioufi said: "If you own a piece of agricultural land in Damascus today worth $1,000, its value can rise to $10,000 or even $100,000 once it is rezoned for construction. But under Decree 66, the land was assigned a fixed value, and owners were given shares in the new development in return. Meanwhile, property prices within the redevelopment zone rose so dramatically that the shares allocated to owners were no longer enough to buy even a single room, or even a bathroom, in one of the new towers, while individual apartments sell for around $1.5 million. In my view, this amounts to a form of fraud against property owners, or an indirect seizure of their property, and it continues to this day."

Al-Sioufi said that during the former government's rule, the Damascus Governorate took control of a large share of the residential and commercial plots within the project before offering them for investment through Damascus Cham Holding, claiming the proceeds would finance infrastructure projects. He said the arrangement raises many questions.

In his view, "the logical solution" would be to halt the implementation of Decree 66 at its current stage and then amend it in a way that guarantees fair compensation for the original property owners from the governorate's share.

Yarmouk Camp: A Double Catastrophe

In Yarmouk camp, south of Damascus, once known as the "capital of the Palestinian diaspora" before becoming one of the most prominent symbols of Syria's wartime destruction, signs of returning displaced families are becoming increasingly visible. Local markets have seen some activity resume, despite the continued devastation and the poor state of basic services, including electricity, water, sanitation, and telecommunications.

Along the main street and in several side alleys, buildings that have been rebuilt only to the structural frame stand out. Families are living in a single finished room with a minimally equipped kitchen and bathroom, while others have repaired their apartments despite the risk of collapse in severely damaged buildings.

Yassar al-Omar returned to his home in the camp about a year and a half ago. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat while sitting on a chair along the sidewalk, the man in his sixties blamed both the government and the UNRWA.

"Unfortunately, we haven't seen anyone."

He said soaring apartment rents, which have climbed to more than $400 a month in areas surrounding the camp, have forced displaced families to return to their homes after carrying out only limited repairs.

"The important thing is to escape the greed of landlords. We installed a front door for the apartment and used curtains and blankets to cover the interior doorways and windows. Some people are living on bread and onions just to save enough money for repairs."

Commenting on the new residential developments, he said, "These apartments and services are not for us. Even in informal neighborhoods, owning a small apartment has become an impossible dream for the overwhelming majority of people given current prices."

Residents rebuild and repair homes on their own as no government reconstruction plan is in place (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Government Largely Absent From Reconstruction

Al-Dasuqi pointed to local community initiatives to repair homes in the city of Deir ez-Zor, as well as projects by aid organizations to rehabilitate some markets. "But what is missing in all the war-damaged areas I visited, whether in Jobar in Damascus or the eastern countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, is the government's presence in the reconstruction process," he said.

According to al-Dasuqi, the government's absence stems from the enormous cost of reconstruction, which is typically financed by the state, the private sector, or external loans. As for the Syrian government, he said, "it is effectively outside this process because it faces major challenges and has not yet recovered financially in terms of public revenues and the state treasury. Taking on reconstruction could overwhelm the state's already strained finances.

That raises the question of why the government has not turned to foreign loans, especially since reconstruction efforts in many countries have relied on external financing.

Al-Dasuqi believes the government's reluctance to seek loans is driven by religious rulings on borrowing and interest, as well as concerns over sovereignty. Instead, it has sought to attract private capital by opening the door to investment in rebuilding war-damaged cities through agreements with local residents.

However, al-Dasuqi argued that the state is failing to fulfill its role as the guarantor of property rights. Instead, it functions more as an intermediary. When it presents residents with an offer from a real estate company to redevelop their area, it simply asks whether they accept it. In his view, the government should instead clearly determine whether the proposal adequately protects property rights and ownership interests.

A rebuilt building, with the Damascus Governorate's seal visible on the doors of its ground-floor shops (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Possible Solutions Based on the Turkish Model

Al-Dasuqi believes one possible alternative would be for the government to strike land-for-development agreements with real estate companies by granting them state-owned land for investment in exchange for rebuilding a war-damaged neighborhood. He said the government needs to deliver tangible progress that helps narrow the gap between itself and residents of these areas before it widens further. This, he said, could be achieved by offering incentives and exemptions to encourage investors to undertake projects in devastated neighborhoods.

Al-Dasuqi noted that the government has the advantage of being able to draw on the experiences of other countries, particularly Turkish public-private housing models. He pointed to the Turkish state housing developer TOKİ, which builds homes and sells them at cost through affordable installment plans.

He added, "It is not unlikely that we will see a restructuring of Syria's Sovereign Fund through the creation of a real estate holding arm modeled on TOKİ. It could then begin providing housing at cost to citizens through installment plans, once settlement agreements with businessmen linked to the former government have been completed."

He said such a model would depend on two key factors: establishing effective governance for the Sovereign Fund to ensure a stable operating framework, and securing sufficient capital to finance the initiative. However, he does not expect such a project to be in place for at least another one to two years.

The Sovereign Fund was established by presidential decree in June 2025. It has since participated in several investment forums, and indications have emerged that it manages assets acquired through settlements reached by the Committee for Combating Illicit Gains with businessmen linked to the former government and some of its leading economic figures.



The Perfect Storm That Turbocharged Venezuela’s Twin Quakes

A view of a building destroyed by the June earthquakes; in Catia La Mar, Venezuela, 05 August 2026. (EPA)
A view of a building destroyed by the June earthquakes; in Catia La Mar, Venezuela, 05 August 2026. (EPA)
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The Perfect Storm That Turbocharged Venezuela’s Twin Quakes

A view of a building destroyed by the June earthquakes; in Catia La Mar, Venezuela, 05 August 2026. (EPA)
A view of a building destroyed by the June earthquakes; in Catia La Mar, Venezuela, 05 August 2026. (EPA)

A dangerous cocktail of tectonic positioning, loose earth and shoddy construction contributed to the unprecedented damage caused by Venezuela's twin earthquakes, experts say.

Jennire Garcia's home in the coastal Catia La Mar neighborhood was rendered unlivable by the tremors in late June, which devastated the state of La Guaira.

The 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude quakes killed over 6,300 people and sent 190 buildings crashing down, while 856 more sustained damage.

Garcia and her family are now living in tents next to the ruins, and the 42-year-old says she is "sick with stress all day long."

This was the same site as deadly mudslides that killed thousands of people in 1999.

The region's "unconsolidated" soils, where construction requires specific geotechnical studies, added to the severity of the damage, according to engineer Feliciano De Santis.

"These soils generally tend to be loose soils" and caused the ground to move with even greater intensity, said De Santis, who is president of the Venezuelan Geologists Society.

Garcia's residential complex, which was declared uninhabitable, was built after the landslide.

Deep cracks run through its yellow walls, several balconies have dislodged from the building and some high-rises have crumbled altogether.

- 'So anxious' -

Rescuers across the quake zone have not abandoned the search for victims under the rubble, and are working through the debris of buildings up to 12 stories high.

The last adjustment made to earthquake regulations for buildings was in 2019, and before that, in 1967 when a horrific 6.6 magnitude tremor struck the country.

A closer look at La Guaira's infrastructure reveals significant construction flaws, said Japanese engineer Kit Miyamoto, who is touring the state with support from Washington.

For instance, large quantities of steel "seems like it's really good," he told AFP.

"But once you get down to look at how actually the rebar (steel reinforcement) is connected to the foundation, it's not much," the engineer added.

In the early 2010s, the government of late leader Hugo Chavez built 43 flagship social housing high-rise buildings.

The quakes flattened 16 of them, crushing hundreds of residents underneath.

A recent investigation by Armando.info revealed that "contracts awarded at discretion to companies whose experience was unknown" fueled the damage.

In Caracas' worst-hit neighborhood Chacao, 68 people died while three buildings collapsed and dozens more are uninhabitable.

Most of these buildings were constructed before the 1967 earthquake, Venezuela's Engineering Order said.

"Some had been reinforced," said organization representative and engineer Felix Ojeda, adding that rubble samples taken on site can provide clues about the state of the infrastructure.

"The obvious next step," said Miyamoto, "is to take down the buildings," adding that retrofitting and strengthening buildings was also important to do as much as possible.

Public fury about the government's slow response to the quakes is widespread.

Interim leader Delcy Rodriguez -- who effectively governs under Washington's thumb since her predecessor Nicolas Maduro's ouster -- has promised to deliver around 4,000 housing units this year.

Back in Catia La Mar, Garcia pines for her former home.

"It makes me sad because I see it there every day. I think about the comforts I had and that I can't have here," she said.

"We are so anxious," she said, "waiting for an answer, and we don't have one."


China Missile Test Deepens Pacific Divide Over Growing Militarization

The headquarters for the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva, Fiji, August 7, 2026. (Reuters)
The headquarters for the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva, Fiji, August 7, 2026. (Reuters)
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China Missile Test Deepens Pacific Divide Over Growing Militarization

The headquarters for the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva, Fiji, August 7, 2026. (Reuters)
The headquarters for the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva, Fiji, August 7, 2026. (Reuters)

China's test of a nuclear-capable missile last month has exposed the limits of Pacific leaders' ambition to make the region an "Ocean of Peace", free from the crossfire of major-power rivalry.

The July launch, China's first known ballistic-missile test into the Pacific since September 2024, was fired into the Pacific just hours after Fiji and Australia signed a major defense treaty, marking Fiji's first ever alliance.

More than a month after the test, Pacific Islands foreign ministers were unable to agree on a collective statement condemning Beijing's missile test, despite individual leaders expressing alarm, publicly and privately, about militarization of the region.

The test was "totally inappropriate", Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko told Reuters on the sidelines of the foreign ministers' meeting in Suva last week.

"China is a very close friend and ally to Papua New Guinea, but we feel this doesn't help at all," he said, adding that Beijing had given PNG advance notice of the launch but no details on where ‌the missile would ‌land.

At the time of the launch, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said it was ‌conducted "safely", ⁠adding: "We hope relevant ⁠countries will not over-interpret the matter."

The missile launch capped a year of more visible military activity across the Pacific, which is fiercely contested between the US and China for influence. That has included Chinese naval deployments and live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, US-allied exercises around Guam and Hawaii, and a steady flow of warship visits linked to expanding security partnerships.

The United States, meanwhile, retains a substantial military presence across the region, including in Hawaii, Guam and the Marshall Islands.

Tuvalu permanent foreign secretary Pasuna Tuaga, who was speaking in a personal capacity, was concerned about growing militarization, not only because of the missile test but also security arrangements such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, ⁠Britain and the United States.

UNITED, BUT DIVIDED

In September 2025, Pacific Leaders endorsed the Ocean ‌of Peace Declaration, which committed to safeguard the region, recognized the right of the ‌people to peace, and resolved to contribute to and strengthen international peace and security.

David Peebles of the Australian National University's Pacific Security College said ‌Pacific countries had long resisted having peace and security defined by outside powers and their competing Indo-Pacific strategies. The Ocean ‌of Peace initiative was an attempt to reclaim that agenda, he said.

The regional declaration inspired the defense pact signed between Australia and Fiji last month, known as the Ocean of Peace Alliance.

Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment on concerns that the growing number of regional security pacts could further militarize the Pacific.

For many governments, security partnerships bring benefits: surveillance against illegal fishing, ‌disaster response, policing support and access to equipment and training. But critics fear a proliferation of bilateral arrangements could leave Pacific countries with little say over how their territory, waters and infrastructure ⁠are used.

Solomon Islands Foreign Minister ⁠Rick Houenipwela, who chaired the talks in Suva, said the region's agenda must remain "conceived by the Pacific, shaped by the Pacific and only by the Pacific."

Yet by the end of the one-day meeting, no unified statement in response to the missile test had emerged.

Kiribati and Nauru, which have deepened ties with Beijing since switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan in 2019 and 2024 respectively, did not support the statement's wording, according to an official familiar with the discussions.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters blamed foreign influence for the failure to reach consensus, without naming a country.

The impasse illustrates the central challenge facing these small island nations which have different economic, political and security interests.

In the northern Pacific, where the US has maintained a military presence for decades, some governments want deeper security engagement with the US while others remain wary.

Fiji Foreign Minister Sakiasi Ditoka said Pacific governments faced an unavoidable tension.

Countries wanted "to be free of all these war-making paraphernalia," he said, but also recognized that some security capabilities helped keep them safe. "I believe it's maintaining that balance."

Fiji for the first time participated last month in US-led war games in the Pacific known as RIMPAC.

Pacific leaders will meet in Palau in three weeks for the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting, where the missile test and regional unity are expected to return to the agenda.


One year after Putin-Trump Summit, 'Spirit of Anchorage' Dissipated

FILE - US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)
FILE - US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)
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One year after Putin-Trump Summit, 'Spirit of Anchorage' Dissipated

FILE - US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)
FILE - US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

In the year since Donald Trump hosted Vladimir Putin on US soil for a summit designed to broker an end to Russia's offensive on Ukraine, the diplomatic initiative has fizzled out and the conflict has escalated.

For months, Russian officials talked up the "spirit of Anchorage" -- a supposed climate of detente, renewed dialogue with Washington and a framework for finding a way out of the deadliest European conflict since World War II, said AFP.

Now there are few traces of that atmosphere. US mediation efforts are at a standstill, both Russia and Ukraine are ramping up attacks and more civilians are being killed than at any point since the first months of the war.

- 'Ending the war'-

On August 15, 2025, Trump broke with the West's policy of isolating Putin, rolling out the red carpet as the Kremlin chief stepped off his plane at the Elmendorf-Richardson air base in Alaska.

It remains unclear what was decided or discussed behind closed doors.

Russia has always maintained some kind of understanding on a peace deal was struck -- "a compromise proposal", as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called it.

Washington has rebuffed any talk of a deal being reached.

"There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end of the war," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in June.

Moscow had hoped the summit would lay the foundations for a "lasting peace" by addressing what it calls the "root causes" of the conflict, said political analyst Sergei Markov -- designated a "foreign agent" but still close to the Russian authorities.

For years -- including right before launching its offensive in February 2022 -- Russia has called for a new overarching security deal with the United States over Europe, NATO and arms control.

The "compromise" Russia tabled in Alaska, Markov told AFP, was to limit its territorial claims on Ukraine to the eastern Donbas region in exchange for recognition of Russia's new borders by Washington and the lifting of sanctions.

- Disenchantment -

Those Russian demands were included in a 28-point document drafted by the United States -- later cut down to 19 -- after separate negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow.

The document was never published officially and never came to fruition.

US-brokered direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in early 2026 broke down, chiefly over the issue of territory.

Ukraine refuses to cede land it still controls and wants an immediate ceasefire along the current front line, with territorial status to be decided during fuller peace talks.

And since late February, Washington's attention has been consumed by the war on Iran.

Trump has since issued fresh sanctions on Russia and the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement -- New Start -- has been allowed to lapse.

Having once sensed a window of opportunity to press its demands and been at pains to praise Trump's efforts, Russia has lately allowed itself to publicly question Washington's commitment to diplomacy.

"I don't even want to imagine that Alaska ... was conceived to gain time in order to strengthen Ukraine militarily," Lavrov said in June.

A meeting between Lavrov and Rubio in Manila in July -- their first since September 2025 -- lasted only around 30 minutes.

"We'll have to find new suggestions and new ideas" that both "Russia and Ukraine can agree to," Rubio said after that meeting.

"That's going to require a lot of work," he added.

- Escalation -

The two sides' conditions for peace are irreconcilable.

Russia demands territory alongside political and military concessions that Ukraine rejects as capitulation.

At the same time, both are convinced force can improve their negotiating position.

"The Russian armed forces will continue their mission to liberate the Donbas and Novorossiya in line with the approved plan," Russia's army chief Valery Gerasimov told Putin in a televised meeting in early July -- referring to land stretching across eastern and southern Ukraine.

Buoyed by European support, Kyiv is banking on its long-range strike campaign to tip Russia's economy and society over the edge.

Its attacks triggered a nationwide fuel crisis over the summer, and have forced Moscow-installed authorities to put the annexed Crimean peninsula under a local "state of emergency".

Russia has upped its missile attacks on Kyiv, killing dozens there in recent weeks.

It has also brought Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea to a standstill through a campaign of port and ship strikes.

"The spirit of Anchorage has dissipated," said Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov -- close to the ruling elite -- in August.

The result? "Brutal escalation."