Qatar Stuck between Rise in Foreign Debt, Threatened Stake in Gas Markets

 An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
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Qatar Stuck between Rise in Foreign Debt, Threatened Stake in Gas Markets

 An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo

Several international economic reports have described Qatar’s current economic status as “threatened to collapse.”

These reports stressed that Qatar’s economy has been facing a very difficult period because investment capitals are not completing their projects and plans; Qatar is heading towards borrowing money despite the rise in the value of foreign debt, which has amounted to 150 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

The threats that dominate Qatar's economy are not only related to the investment pause, the decline in purchasing power, nor to the limited competitiveness of Doha's air force but they have also reached the gas markets.

International news agencies said that Australia now threats Qatar’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production as it is planning to boost exports of LNG by 16 percent from 2018.

On the other hand, Doha is considering raising at least nine billion dollars from international bond markets as the gas-rich nation boycotted by its neighbors seeks to replenish state coffers, news agencies said.

In June, Moody’s confirmed that Qatar’s credit quality would decline if tensions with its Gulf neighbors continue for much longer, raising the country’s debt ratio and hurting banks’ liquidity.

Amid recent indications that Doha is unable to hide the risks its economy has been facing, Qatar's stock market has been facing in the recent weeks a stage that proves the size of the risks threatening Qatar’s economy with Qatar's index reached its lowest level in five years.

In this context, Qatar’s central bank has added the equivalent of about $19 billion of previously unreported foreign-currency assets to its total reserves in August based on an International Monetary Fund recommendation, a move that helps offset the impact of the Saudi-led embargo.

Doha has also been facing a major crisis in terms of economic slowdown. Official figures show that Qatar's economic growth has hit its worst level since the beginning of the global financial crisis.

In addition, there is a high-risk level of liquidity shortage in local banks amid indicators showing Qatar’s central bank’s inability to continue withdrawing from the foreign deposits for so long; since this reveals the volume of financial threats in which Doha’s government won’t be able to face.



China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
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China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.