Global Warming Causing Rise in Migrant Flow to EU

FILE PHOTO: A man collects recyclables from an alley as smoke billows from the chimney of a factory in rural Gaoyi county, known for its ceramics production, near Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, China December 7, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man collects recyclables from an alley as smoke billows from the chimney of a factory in rural Gaoyi county, known for its ceramics production, near Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, China December 7, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo
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Global Warming Causing Rise in Migrant Flow to EU

FILE PHOTO: A man collects recyclables from an alley as smoke billows from the chimney of a factory in rural Gaoyi county, known for its ceramics production, near Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, China December 7, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man collects recyclables from an alley as smoke billows from the chimney of a factory in rural Gaoyi county, known for its ceramics production, near Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, China December 7, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo

Rapid global warming could almost triple the number of migrants reaching the European Union by 2100, adding to factors such as war and persecution that force people to leave home, scientists said.

The study, criticized by some other researchers as exaggerated, said asylum applications to the EU from 103 nations tended to rise in the 2000-2014 period when temperatures at home were far hotter or colder than the ideal for growing maize.

It projected that applications could surge to 1.01 million a year by 2100 from an average 351,000 from 2000-14 under a scenario of a big rise in temperatures that would hit harvests. Under a scenario of less warming, applications could rise 28 percent.

“A lot of things can happen by the end of the century - countries can become democracies, they can become dictatorships,” senior author Wolfram Schlenker, a Columbia University professor of economics, told Reuters, referring to factors that cause migration.

The findings published in the journal Science and requested by the European Commission examined trends this century, before a migration surge in 2015 caused by Syria’s war.

Some other scientists were doubtful about the findings.

“The evidence so far on the impacts of climate change on migration is still quite weak,” said Jan Selby, a professor of international relations at the University of Sussex, Reuters reported.

Global warming is likely to be slightly less severe than previously expected thanks to stronger climate policies by China and India that will offset less U.S. action under President Donald Trump, a study showed.

But average world temperatures are still on track to rise far above the key goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement of limiting warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, it said.

The Carbon Action Tracker (CAT) report, by three independent European research groups, said current policies meant the world was headed for a warming of 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 Fahrenheit) by 2100, down from 3.6 degrees (6.5) it predicted a year ago.

“This is the first time since the CAT began tracking action in 2009 that policies at a national level have visibly reduced its end of century temperature estimate,” it said.

China was on track to over-achieve its pledge under the Paris Agreement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030, it said. And India was also making progress to limit a surge in emissions driven by more coal use.

A rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4F) in global average temperatures could cause loss of tropical coral reefs, Alpine glaciers, Arctic summer sea ice and perhaps an irreversible melt of Greenland’s ice that would drive up world sea levels, a UN science panel says, Reuters reported.

Trump, who doubts that climate change is primarily caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions, said in June that he would instead focus on promoting jobs in the US fossil fuel industry.

Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of the research groups, told reuters: “While China an India’s emissions growth have slowed, they are still growing,” especially in India, he said. “The most fundamental step to halt the global emissions growth now is for coal plants to be phased out in many countries.”



Taiwanese Rally For, Against the Recall of Opposition Lawmakers Seen as Close to China

A Taiwan flag can be seen at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo
A Taiwan flag can be seen at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo
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Taiwanese Rally For, Against the Recall of Opposition Lawmakers Seen as Close to China

A Taiwan flag can be seen at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo
A Taiwan flag can be seen at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo

Threats from China and anger over legislative deadlock are dominating Taiwan's political discourse as residents rally for and against a campaign to recall two dozen opposition Nationalist Party lawmakers in polling to be held on Saturday.

Thousands of supporters of the independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party turned out in the heart of the capital Taipei on Thursday to hear from civil society activists, writers, musicians and others who support the recalls, which could potentially give the party, also known as the DPP, a majority in the legislature.

The DPP won last year’s presidential election, but came up short in the legislature, The AP news reported.

Since then, the China-friendly Nationalists, also known as the KMT, and their allies have sought to hobble the power of the executive and blocked key legislation, especially the defense budget.

That has been seen as undermining both Taiwan’s hard-won democracy and its ability to deter China’s threat to invade the island it considers its own territory. Those concerns prompted activists to campaign for recall votes in the districts where Nationalists were seen as most vulnerable, and they succeeded in 24 districts where votes are scheduled this weekend.

A recall measures must win 40% of the constituents in a district to succeed, after which a special election will be held to fill the seat, in which all parties can compete.

The KMT and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party together hold a majority in the parliament with 62 seats, while the ruling DPP holds 51 seats.

The KMT on Thursday sent some of its best known politicians, including the mayor of Taipei, the speaker of the legislature and the party chairman, out to urge voters to oppose the recall. It also planned a rally in Taipei on Friday. The KMT calls the measure a power grab by the DPP and a threat to multi-party democracy.

Perhaps more than any issue, China has loomed over the campaign, with both its officials and state media dismissing the recall effort as a further futile attempt to preclude what they call the inevitability of Beijing's annexation of Taiwan, either by military or peaceful means.

On Taiwan, it has brought out differences between Taiwanese who favor pursuing the current path and those who seek accommodation with Beijing. China-friendly politicians have been accused of selling out Taiwan for accepting trips to the mainland and meetings with Chinese politicians, while they defend themselves as keeping open lines of communication in light of Beijing's refusal to interact with the DPP.

The recall campaign — Taiwan's first — was prompted by anti-KMT groups alarmed by the party's closeness with China, corruption and the KMT's refusal to work with President Lai Ching-te's administration.

They first needed to gather signatures from 10% of voters in each district, targeting legislators seen as particularly vulnerable or controversial and under China's influence. Each campaign seeking to unseat a single legislator required a huge organizational effort, limiting the number of KMT lawmakers targeted.

The KMT is primed to contest any special elections that must be called within six months, raising the possibility that they could win back the seats, and the DPP, although enlivened by the campaign, could still remain in the minority.