International and Arab News
"Misfortunes never come singly. "
This simple saying sums up the current situation of the Iranian regime. The country was struck by earthquakes and was shaken by nationwide riots; one of its biggest oil tankers close to China’s coast caught fire after a collision; the exchange rate of the riyal deteriorated, and the majority of the US Congress voted on a new law to punish Iran.
Even if the protests subsided, they are increasing through other means.
Protests alone are not enough to overthrow a regime based on diabolical foundations of religious forces, Basij security forces, Revolutionary Guard Corps and intelligence services. Most internet services were blocked, social media was banned and 5,000 prisoners were sentenced to death without any regard to international public opinion.
However, when adversities hit the regime, it will be burdened by popular, international and economic pressures, and will eventually stagger.
The regime then has few options. It will either change: partially like the case of China, or dramatically like in Russia, or gradually as in Egypt, or completely as had happened with the Libyan regime. There are also examples of peaceful collapse of governments as seen in eastern Europe.
It is not difficult for the regime to suppress the uprisings and face the demonstrations as it did this time and eight years ago. Yet, the regime of the Guardianship of Islamic Jurist (Wilayat al-Faqih), suffers from a number of serious illnesses. First, for 40 years the regime has been in absolute power without developing itself or answering to the new generation’s needs.
The regime also suffers from internal conflicts, including rifts between clerics that have surfaced and threatened its unity.
It is now paying for its religious and military leaders' ambitions, who got the country involved in dangerous costly regional wars.
It is impossible for Iran to achieve permanent control because of the regional rejection of its expansion.
Finally, Iran’s enmity with great powers, precisely the Unite States under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Washington decided to monitor Tehran’s institutions with the intention of targeting them. It has started to pressure the Iranian regime technologically, commercially and politically.
Combined, all these factors are capable of destroying this extremist theological state, which rejects development, change and coexistence, and insists on waging wars and spreading terrorism.
Recent demonstrations in Iran are a very important indicator that the regime has lost what is left of its popularity even in rural areas and other areas that once supported it.
Earlier, it was said that the people of Tehran and the middle class who revolted in 2009 do not decide the fate of Iran, but the regime’s support base is in the areas outside the capital.
This regime, founded by Khomeini, is deteriorating and will collapse either gradually or rapidly in a time not too far not only because regional and international powers are seeking that, but because most of the internal powers are now opposing and uniting against the regime.
Since the state of Wilayat al-Faqih is concerned with its image internally and externally, we must not be surprised if we saw it over-expanding its military operations, seeking victories abroad to mend its internal wounds.
Iranian Republic does not have enough financial resources to fix its current economy, which deteriorated with the widespread protests, and if it goes too far with its military activities abroad, the situation will worsen.