Iraq: ‘Abadi-Hakim’ Electoral Alliance Collapses

Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2015. (AFP Photo/Jim Watson)
Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2015. (AFP Photo/Jim Watson)
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Iraq: ‘Abadi-Hakim’ Electoral Alliance Collapses

Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2015. (AFP Photo/Jim Watson)
Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2015. (AFP Photo/Jim Watson)

The electoral Nasr al-Iraq alliance between Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the Hikma Movement headed by Ammar al-Hakim collapsed over “technical” issues, two weeks after the withdrawal of Popular Mobilization Forces’ al-Fath (Conquest) from a similar alliance with the PM.

A statement issued by the Hikma Movement said: “The Nasr coalition and the Hikma Movement have decided to run in the parliamentary elections in two lists based on a mutual agreement reached between the two parties over technical issues.”

It added that the two sides might set up an alliance following the elections to form a national government that meets “the ambitions and hopes of the Iraqi people.”

Explaining what technical reasons have led to the quick withdrawals from Abadi’s Nasr coalition, an Iraqi politician told Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity: “All parties that signed an electoral pact with Abadi later discovered that joining such alliance will make them lose in the upcoming elections.”

He said that Abadi was not prepared to join the electoral battle, but was forced to announce a list following immense political and even religious pressures.

The source added that parties allied with Abadi realized that the coming victory would only be in the interest of the prime minister.

“Those parties discovered they will fail in the upcoming elections after Abadi placed several conditions on parties wishing to sign an electoral pact with his coalition,” the source said, adding that the prime minister’s “cake does not satisfy all parties.”

On Tuesday, a source said seven parties have already withdrawn from Abadi’s al-Nasr coalition

State of Law Coalition MP Rehab Abouda told Asharq Al-Awsat: “It remains clear there was a rush to join Abadi’s coalition, which includes many parties and entities that have nothing in common except the hope to receive the highest number of parliamentary seats.”



Gaza Ceasefire Traps Netanyahu between Trump and Far-right Allies

This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
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Gaza Ceasefire Traps Netanyahu between Trump and Far-right Allies

This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)

Even before it was signed, the Gaza ceasefire forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a tight spot - between a new US president promising peace and far-right allies who want war to resume. That tension is only likely to increase.
The stakes for Netanyahu are high -- keeping his coalition government on the one hand and on the other, satisfying US President Donald Trump who wants to use the ceasefire momentum to expand Israel's diplomatic ties in the Middle East.
One of Netanyahu's nationalist allies has already quit over the Gaza ceasefire, and another is threatening to follow unless war on Hamas is resumed at an even greater force than that which devastated much of Gaza for 15 months.
The clock is ticking. The first stage of the ceasefire is meant to last six weeks. By day 16 -- Feb. 4 -- Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas are due to start negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, whose stated aim is to end the war.
Former police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party quit the government on Sunday and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that he will stay in government only if war resumes after the first phase until the total defeat of Hamas, whose Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the war.
"We must go back in a completely different style. We need to conquer Gaza, instate a military rule there, even if temporarily, to start encouraging (Palestinian) emigration, to start taking territory from our enemies and to win," Smotrich said in an interview with Channel 14 on Sunday.
Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, however, said on Wednesday he was focused on ensuring the deal moves from the first to second phase, which is expected to include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
"Netanyahu is pressed between the far-right and Donald Trump," said political analyst Amotz Asa-El, with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. "Netanyahu's coalition now is fragile and the likelihood that it will fall apart sometime in the course of 2025 is high."
Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Witkoff told Fox News on Wednesday that he will be on the ground overseeing the ceasefire, a signal that he will keep up the pressure he applied during the deal's negotiations.
According to six US, Israeli, Egyptian and other Mideast officials who spoke to Reuters in the run-up to the ceasefire announcement on Jan. 15, Witkoff played a crucial role in getting the deal over the line.
The ceasefire's first phase includes the release of hostages, a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and aid flow into Gaza.
The second phase, if it happens, would include the release of remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. A third phase is expected to start Gaza's reconstruction, overseen by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is post-war Gaza's governance. Israel won't accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.
Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday, that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel "in doing what it has to do."
On Saturday, after his government signed off on the ceasefire, Netanyahu said Israel had US backing to resume fighting if the second stage talks prove futile, leaving himself some political leeway with Smotrich, for now.
"If we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force," Netanyahu said in a video statement.