Sudan Inflation Spikes to 52%

Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
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Sudan Inflation Spikes to 52%

Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters

Inflation in Sudan surged to 52.37 percent in January from 32.15 percent in December, the state statistics agency said, amid rising food prices that have kindled unrest and a hard currency shortage that has crimped imports.

“This is the highest inflation rate in years,” said Karamallah Abdul Rahman, head of the statistics agency to Reuters.

Sudan’s economy has been struggling since the south of the country seceded in 2011, taking with it three-quarters of its oil output.

But the United States lifted 20-year-old sanctions against Khartoum in October, renewing hope that Sudan could draw foreign investment again and get its economy on track.

The Sudanese pound has plummeted to record lows on the black market in recent months after devaluation to 18 per dollar from 6.7 at the start of 2017, following a call by the International Monetary Fund to let the currency float freely.

The government has ruled out a market-determined exchange rate but allowed the currency to weaken further, to as low as 31.5 pounds to the dollar earlier this month.

Businesses say the pound is largely unavailable at this rate however and that they have been forced to resort to an increasingly expensive black market where the currency hit about 40 pounds to the dollar earlier this month, according to Reuters.

That rate has since strengthened, to about 33 pounds to the dollar on Wednesday according to traders, after the central bank banned hard currency deposits sourced from the black market.

Dollar trading at commercial banks on Wednesday meanwhile ranged from 27.34-29.64 Sudanese pounds per dollar, according to the Sudanese Central Bank website, suggesting the gap between the parallel and official rates has narrowed.

The sharply weaker currency and a cut to bread subsidies last month have pushed prices sharply higher, prompting protests across the large northeast African country.



Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions
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Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support.

Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.80%, to $76.91 a barrel at 1119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 46 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.02.

It seems market participants have started to price in some small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, according to three traders, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.

Shandong Port Group oversees major ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices.

However, oil price gains were capped by global economic data.

Euro zone inflation

accelerated

in December, an unwelcome but anticipated blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

"Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions that the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the Eurozone, while US manufactured good orders fell in November," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum said.

Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory, and sellers are keen to step in once again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and the oil demand outlook.