Egypt’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate, Government Sets Realistic Expectations for EGP

Central Bank of Egypt's headquarters is seen in downtown Cairo. Reuters
Central Bank of Egypt's headquarters is seen in downtown Cairo. Reuters
TT
20

Egypt’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate, Government Sets Realistic Expectations for EGP

Central Bank of Egypt's headquarters is seen in downtown Cairo. Reuters
Central Bank of Egypt's headquarters is seen in downtown Cairo. Reuters

Egypt’s central bank cut its key interest rates by 100 basis points for the second meeting in a row on Thursday, but the Ministry of Finance announced the same day reducing its expectations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) dollar exchange rate, which analysts describe as realistic.

The central bank raised interest rates by 700 basis points on several steps. But last February, the bank moved to curb interest rates as inflationary pressures subsided.

In a statement issued Thursday evening, the bank stated: “Annual urban consumer price inflation fell to 14.4 percent in February while core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food, fell to 11.9 percent.”

The bank cut its overnight deposit rate to 16.75 percent from 17.75 percent and its overnight lending rate to 17.75 from 18.75 percent, said the statement.

Bloomberg agency reported that the yield on one-year notes fell 12 basis points to 16.559 percent in the government’s debt auction. Returns have dropped by about 160 points since the beginning of the year, as investors priced-in the interest rate cuts.

Bloomberg quoted head of macro analysis at investment bank EFG-Hermes in Cairo Mohamed Abu Basha as saying that yields could dip slightly but not by much, because the market was already expecting the lower rates even before the central bank started the easing cycle last month.

“The fact that the cuts seem to be gradual means that they will not put much pressure on yields,” Abu Basha added.

Egypt is expected to make new increases in the prices of fuel, electricity and public transportation under a plan adopted by the country to liberalize the energy support system and rebuild social policies.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s Prime Minister Sherif Ismail told reporters on Thursday the new budget set the price of petroleum at $67 per barrel and the US dollar exchange rate at EGP 17.25.

This means a reduction in the government's assessment of the value of the EGP against the dollar, where in previous budgets, the US dollar was valued at 16 EGP. It also means the government increased its forecasts for oil prices, which was estimated in the budget 2017-2018 at $55 per barrel.

Senior economist at regional investment bank Arqaam Capital, Reham el-Desoki told Asharq Al-Awsat that this is not a devaluation of the EGP, but the expectations in the current budget are not realistic.

Desoski expects a relative stability of the local currency in the next two and a half years, unless surprised with unexpected jump in tourism revenues.

Ismail indicated that total investments according to the new plan are estimated at EGP 942.2 billion, an increase of about 46 percent compared with last year's figures.

Later, Finance Minister Amr al-Garhy said the budget of next fiscal year is valued at EGP 1.412 trillion.

During a television interview, Garhy said that the total budget deficit of GDP is 8.4 percent, compared with current year’s deficit between 9.6 and 9.8 percent.



US and UK Announce Plans for a Trade Deal That Trump Says Would Cement Their Relationship

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
TT
20

US and UK Announce Plans for a Trade Deal That Trump Says Would Cement Their Relationship

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)

The United States and Britain announced plans for a symbolically important trade deal on Thursday, likely lowering the financial burden from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs while creating greater access abroad for American goods.

The announcement provided a political victory for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and provided a degree of validation for Trump's claims that his turbulent approach on trade may be able to rebalance the global economy on his preferred terms. Yet the terms of the deal have yet to be completed so that it can be signed, a reminder that a process Trump has promised would be quick could take weeks as other nations with which the US runs a trade deficit worry that the Republican president's import taxes will drag down economic growth across the world.

“The final details are being written up,” Trump told reporters. “In the coming weeks, we’ll have it all very conclusive.”

The president said that the agreement would lead to more beef and ethanol exports to the UK, which would also streamline the processing of US goods through customs.

Starmer, speaking over the phone to Trump, stressed the importance of the relationship between the two countries as the anniversary of the World War II victory in Europe was being commemorated.

“To be able to announce this great deal on the same deal 80 years forward, almost at the same hour and as we were 80 years ago with the UK and the US standing side by side, I think is incredibly important,” Starmer said.

Britain said its deal with the United States will cut tariffs on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% and eliminate tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The British government said the deal sets a quota of 100,000 UK vehicles that can be imported to the US at a 10% tariff. It said the Trump-imposed 25% tariff on British steel will fall to nothing.

The UK said the agreement includes new reciprocal market access on beef and removes the tariff on ethanol going into the UK from the US, down to zero.

The planned deal was the first outlined since Trump began his stutter-step efforts to rewire the global economy by dramatically increasing import taxes in an attempt to increase domestic manufacturing. The Republican president quickly rolled out tariffs after returning to the White House, targeting traditional allies such as the UK with import taxes on steel, aluminum and autos.

Trump announced near universal tariffs on April 2, then partially retreated a week later and announced that his administration would seek individual agreements with various countries over the next few months.

The US already runs a trade surplus with the UK, making it a bit easier to find common ground as Trump has staked his tariffs on specifically eliminating the annual trade deficits with multiple nations he says have taken advantage of the US.

No new deals have been reached with America's largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. Trump has left the highest tariffs in place on China, sparking a confrontation between the world's two biggest economies. Washington and Beijing are sending officials to Switzerland this weekend for an initial round of trade talks.

Trump promised on Thursday that there are "many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

Starmer, speaking at a defense conference in London, said “talks with the US have been ongoing, and you’ll hear more from me about that later today.”

The US and the UK have been aiming to strike a bilateral trade agreement since the British people voted in 2016 to leave the European Union, allowing the country to negotiate independently of the rest of the continent. Then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson touted a future deal with the US as an incentive for Brexit.

Negotiations started in 2020, during Trump’s first term. But the talks made little progress under President Joe Biden, a Democrat and a critic of Brexit. Negotiations resumed after Trump returned to office in January and intensified in recent weeks.

A major goal of British negotiators has been to reduce or lift the import tax on UK cars and steel, which Trump set at 25%. The US is the largest destination for British cars, accounting for more than a quarter of UK auto exports in 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Britain has also sought tariff exemptions for pharmaceuticals, while the US wants greater access to the British market for agriculture products. Starmer’s government has said it won’t lower UK food standards to allow in chlorine-rinsed American chicken or hormone-treated beef.

The British government will see a deal as a vindication of Starmer’s emollient approach to Trump, which has avoided direct confrontation or criticism. Unlike the European Union, Britain did not announce retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to Trump’s import taxes.

A trade deal with the United Kingdom would be symbolically important and a relief for British exporters. But an agreement would do little to address Trump’s core concern about persistent trade deficits that prompted him to impose import taxes on countries around the world.

The US ran a $11.9 billion trade surplus in goods with the UK last year, according to the Census Bureau. The $68 billion in goods that the US imported from the UK last year accounted for just 2% of all goods imported into the country.

The US is much more important to the UK economy. It was Britain's biggest trading partner last year, according to government statistics, though the bulk of Britain’s exports to the US are services rather than goods.

Trump has previously said that his leverage in talks would be US consumers, but he appeared to suggest that the UK would also start buying more American-made goods.

“I think that the United Kingdom, like every other country, they want to ... go shopping in the United States of America," he said.

A trade deal with the US is one of several that Starmer’s government is seeking to strike. On Tuesday, Britain and India announced a trade agreement after three years of negotiations. The UK is also trying to lift some of the barriers to trade with the EU imposed when Britain left the bloc in 2020.