Will 'OPEC Plus' Agreement to Cut Production End?

OPEC Plus meeting late June will significantly determine future of oil prices. Reuters
OPEC Plus meeting late June will significantly determine future of oil prices. Reuters
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Will 'OPEC Plus' Agreement to Cut Production End?

OPEC Plus meeting late June will significantly determine future of oil prices. Reuters
OPEC Plus meeting late June will significantly determine future of oil prices. Reuters

Economic policymakers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are most concerned about the drop in oil prices this year, which is likely to decline if the OPEC and non-OPEC members (known as OPEC plus) decide to raise their production two weeks from now.

Notably, OPEC plus refers to OPEC’s cooperation with non-OPEC oil producers to affect production cuts.

However, will prices fall? And will this agreement end?

It seems that the cut-off deal is on its way to end this month although OPEC members have a strong desire to extend it until the end of the year.

There is plenty of evidence suggesting that the agreement may end, yet this will not be certain until the end of the meeting on June 23.

The first evidence is that Russians are pushing hard to raise their production and stop the agreement as it is clear from the statements of heads of Russian oil companies, such as Gazprom Neft or Rosneft.

They stated in the last two weeks that the production of Russian companies should increase after the oil market showed a balance and a significant decline in stocks.

Most major Russian oil companies also support increased crude production as prices hit $80 per barrel last month. Oil is currently traded at more than $76 per barrel.

OPEC and non-OPEC ministers will meet in Vienna on June 22-23 to discuss the future of the deal, which is valid until the end of the year.

Although Russian politicians have not publicly stated this, Russian President Vladimir Putin told senior world news editors in St. Petersburg late last month that Russia's agreement with OPEC was not to last forever, and that Russia sees the oil market now balanced. Putin also said a price of $60 “suits” his country.

Russia and OPEC leader Saudi Arabia have signaled there could be a need to gradually boost production to prevent any supply shortages.

Russian oil output was stagnant at 10.97 million bpd for the third month in a row in May.

Meanwhile, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Saturday that Russia's oil production had risen to 11.1 million bpd in early June, above its target production of under 11 million bpd as part of the deal.

The country agreed to cut its production by 300,000 bpd from 11.24 million bpd as part of a global pact. The Russian Energy Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Interfax said Russian oil production stood on average at 1.51 million tons per day in the first week of the month and never got below 1.51 million tons.



Al-Barrak Says he Invested in Advanced Technologies, Gulf Integration is Crucial

Kuwaiti businessman and former Oil Minister Dr. Saad Al-Barrak. Asharq Al-Awsat
Kuwaiti businessman and former Oil Minister Dr. Saad Al-Barrak. Asharq Al-Awsat
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Al-Barrak Says he Invested in Advanced Technologies, Gulf Integration is Crucial

Kuwaiti businessman and former Oil Minister Dr. Saad Al-Barrak. Asharq Al-Awsat
Kuwaiti businessman and former Oil Minister Dr. Saad Al-Barrak. Asharq Al-Awsat

Kuwaiti businessman Dr. Saad Al-Barrak hopes to contribute to the development of innovative technologies that provide solutions and have a significant impact in addressing future challenges.

His company ILA focuses on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and blockchain.

Al-Barrak was former chief executive of Kuwait's Zain group and former Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Oil and Minister of State for Economic and Investment Affairs. He has played a significant role in supporting the sectors he has worked in, particularly in Kuwaiti telecommunications, and has placed the Kuwaiti company Zain within the ranks of global companies after the huge investment he made in Africa.

There are many supporters of Al-Barrak's approach, as well as critics, who believe he works in a "high-risk" manner. But he said: "I always love new challenges ... I try to combine courage, which is half of the success, with wisdom, which is the other half, even though there is a contradiction between the two."

After leaving Zain in 2012, Al-Barrak founded a company specializing in advanced technologies, targeting large institutions and avoiding traditional projects. The company focused on investing in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and blockchain, with a strategy aimed at creating value and exiting investments within seven to 10 years to reinvest in new opportunities.

Al-Barrak explained that most of his company's operations are centered in the United States. He mentioned signing a contract with Saudi Aramco aimed at supporting digital transformation using artificial intelligence.

He revealed that his company "Beyond Limits," which he founded in collaboration with the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in 2016, started with a capital of 20 million dollars and is now valued at over 2.5 billion dollars.

He added that the company seeks to expand its collaboration with Aramco and continue innovating in technologies that are game changers across various sectors.

The Zain Experience

About his experience in Zain, he said that he joined MTC in Kuwait in 2002, which rebranded to Zain in 2006–2007. During that time, the company underwent a significant transformation; it expanded its operations from one country to 23 countries worldwide, and revenues increased significantly from about 500 million dollars to over 8 billion dollars by 2009, with total profits growing from 250 million dollars to 3.2 billion dollars.

"The customer base grew from 500,000 in Kuwait to over 74 million worldwide. The rebranding to Zain included operations in about 15 African countries and eight Arab countries,” he added.

Gulf economies

Regarding the economies of the Gulf countries, he said: "The Gulf economies have witnessed significant growth since 2008, primarily driven by oil. However, fluctuations in oil prices due to global politics, wars, and alliances pose challenges. To address this issue, Gulf countries are working on diversifying their income sources."

"Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have made significant progress, while Kuwait has started following the same approach, which is diversifying income sources to develop the economy. In less than ten years, the Gulf economies grew from one trillion to three trillion dollars, a 300% increase,” he added.

He said further integration and cooperation between Gulf countries, as envisioned by the Gulf Cooperation Council, is crucial for enhancing their global and regional influence as major powers.

The oil minister

In June 2023, al-Barrak was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Oil.

"The oil market is controlled by countries, not individuals, which makes it highly affected by international politics. This means that oil prices are subject to fluctuations due to global events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, which impacts all economies,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

"While OPEC countries share the commodity, they differ in strategies, visions, and political alliances. The Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, play a crucial role in OPEC, as they are the economic heart of the organization,” he said.

He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has played an effective role in unifying OPEC and OPEC+, demonstrating exceptional leadership and diplomacy.

"Saudi Arabia reduced its production by one million barrels to stabilize the market, convince Russia and other countries to cooperate, and prevent a collapse in oil prices,” he said.

"This unity and leadership from Saudi Arabia greatly benefited the oil market and maintained price stability. The Kingdom continues to lead with excellence under the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the Crown Prince. However, the issue of oil price fluctuations remains complex and requires a fundamental solution to ensure the stability of Gulf economies,” he added.

Ties with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman

Al-Barrak lauded the work done by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. “When I entered the ministry, the first person who contacted me was Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. He is our mentor, and the cooperation between us is extensive.”

“He is a very good example—very humble, energetic, and active. His knowledge is exceptional in economic and oil matters."

Kuwait

Al-Barrak confirmed that Kuwait has made significant progress during the reign of the late Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad, and these efforts continued during the reign of Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. He pointed out that the signing of seven major agreements with the private sector to develop infrastructure provides an ambitious future vision.