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S&P: Egypt Credit Rating at Stable B with Debt Concerns

The Standard and Poor's building in New York, August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
The Standard and Poor's building in New York, August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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S&P: Egypt Credit Rating at Stable B with Debt Concerns

The Standard and Poor's building in New York, August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
The Standard and Poor's building in New York, August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Standard & Poor's credit rating for Egypt stands at B with a stable outlook, but the agency warned of financial challenges facing the country in light of its worsening debt crisis.

In a recent report it published, S&P said that competitive exchange rate, improving macroeconomic fundamentals and rising domestic gas production are all reducing Egypt's external financial imbalances.

The agency pointed out that it will make a positive rating step towards Egypt, if economic growth and check in balance exceeded expectations. Those two gauges, if improved, are said to reduce the country's funding crises and to drop its foreign debt.

Egypt will be looking at a better credit rating if its reform program was able to drop government debt significantly.

The agency reports that Egypt’s economic growth in fiscal year 2018 was 5.3 percent, compared to a 4.2 percent in 2017.

This strong growth is supported by activity in the industrial, gas, tourism and construction sectors, the report said. It noted that the Zohr natural gas field, which began production in December 2017, holds great potential for enabling the country to achieve self-sufficiency.

According to the report, the current spending on infrastructure is expected to increase in the coming years, which will help the construction sector continued development.

But the agency stressed that one of the most significant challenges facing the Egyptian economy is interest rates on government debt, which accounts for 9.9 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2018. The interest margin on government debt to public revenues was likely to rise to 48 percent in 2019, compared to a 45 percent the previous year.

In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Egypt thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs.

Monthly inflation rose slightly in October to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent in September.

The country is experiencing a significant rise in the prices of basic food commodities. Local statistics said that tomato prices rose 28.6 percent in October compared to the previous month, while potatoes increased by 15.7 percent and onions by 16.7 percent.

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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.