Morocco's Economic Growth Expected to Slow Down in Q1 2019

People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
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Morocco's Economic Growth Expected to Slow Down in Q1 2019

People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)

Morocco’s economic growth is expected to record a 2.5 % during Q1 of 2019 compared to 3.3 % in Q1 2018, Morocco's Higher Planning Commission said on Wednesday.

Growth in the Q4 of 2018 was affected by the slowdown in added value, excluding agricultural activity, by 2.6 percent, compared with 3.4 percent during the same period of 2017.

The Commission said on its website that the agricultural sector grew 3.4 percent in Q4 of last year, compared to 4.1 percent during the first three quarters. This slowdown is partly due to the decline in livestock production.

Manufacturing growth in the last quarter of 2018, according to published estimates, also slowed to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent in the same period a year earlier, as food industries slowed and demand for building materials fell.

However, chemical industry maintained its "dynamism" and grew 6.1 percent, and the added value of the textile and leather sectors increased 5.8 percent with the increase for the external demand for these products.

Mechanical and electronic industries grew 3.6 percent supported by demand from the automotive industry, stated the report.

Morocco's exports in the fourth quarter of 2018 increased 5.1 percent, thanks to higher sales in the aviation and automobile sectors, which contributed 80 percent to the growth rate of exports.

Food, clothing and electronics sectors contributed to a 0.9, 0.6 and 0.5 percent growth, respectively, as external demand for these products increased.

Imports recorded a 5.8 percent rate higher than exports, as the country was affected by the rise in global fuel prices, which contributed 2.2 points to import growth. In contrast, imports of foodstuffs, precisely wheat and sugar, declined during that period.

Industrial investment slowed in Q4, which was reflected on imports of processing materials that only increased 2.1 percent, compared to an 11 percent increase in the previous quarter.

Investment in construction was modest, with weak demand for housing, especially medium and high, stated the report.

For the first quarter of 2019, the Commission said that the expected slowdown will come from a decline in agricultural added value, estimated at 0.7 percent, although livestock production will see some improvement compared to the end of 2018.

“Overall, the non-agriculture added value is expected to record a 2.9 percent increase, according to the annual change.”



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.