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Int’l Crisis Group: Iraq Likely Theater of US-Iran Tension

A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
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Int’l Crisis Group: Iraq Likely Theater of US-Iran Tension

A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that Iraq could turn into the main battlefield of confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Iraq could bear the brunt if conflict intensifies between Tehran and Washington, the think-tank said in a study released Wednesday.

ICG, which researches ways to prevent war, interviewed officials around the world including from Iran for an extensive report on the state of the 2015 denuclearization accord between Tehran and major powers.

The ICG said Iran would likely continue to comply with the deal, seeing itself as holding the moral high ground and capable of waiting out US President Donald Trump, who faces a re-election battle next year.

Trump has withdrawn the United States and ramped up economic pressure aimed at isolating Iran.

The study said that Tehran's calculations could change if its oil exports, which stood at 3.8 million barrels a day in 2017, fall below 700,000, a level that could trigger hyper-inflation and intensify domestic protests which for now appear manageable.

If Iran decides to retaliate against the United States, the report said that Tehran may find its most attractive option to be to employ its proxies around the Middle East, a path that would be murky enough to avoid a strong European reaction.

The report quoted a senior Iranian national security official as saying that the likeliest theater was Iraq, where militias from the Shiite majority have close ties with Tehran. 

"Iraq is where we have experience, plausible deniability and the requisite capability to hit the US below the threshold that would prompt a direct retaliation," the official was quoted as saying, according to Agence France Presse.

Iran is also deeply involved in Syria and Lebanon, but the two countries are especially fragile and Tehran could lose its gains, the official said.

Iran has limited assets in Afghanistan, while stepping up support for Houthi rebels in Yemen would hurt Saudi Arabia more than the United States, the official said.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump's hawkish national security advisor, John Bolton, asked for military options to strike Iran after an Iranian-linked group launched a mortar attack in September on Baghdad's "Green Zone," the protected area where the US embassy is located. The US says its embassy was the target.

No one was hurt and demonstrators also ransacked the Iranian consulate in Basra during the wave of protests over economic conditions in Iraq.

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Israel Far-Right Issues Rare Rebuke of Settler Attack on Army

Israeli settlers carrying weapons during clashes in which Palestinians were attacked in the town of Huwara in the West Bank. (Getty Images/AFP file)
Israeli settlers carrying weapons during clashes in which Palestinians were attacked in the town of Huwara in the West Bank. (Getty Images/AFP file)
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Israel Far-Right Issues Rare Rebuke of Settler Attack on Army

Israeli settlers carrying weapons during clashes in which Palestinians were attacked in the town of Huwara in the West Bank. (Getty Images/AFP file)
Israeli settlers carrying weapons during clashes in which Palestinians were attacked in the town of Huwara in the West Bank. (Getty Images/AFP file)

An assault by Israeli settlers on soldiers in the occupied West Bank drew condemnation from across the political spectrum, including an unusual rebuke from far-right ministers who typically support the settlement movement.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, considered the two most hardline members of the ruling coalition, called for the perpetrators to be held accountable.

The army said dozens of "civilians" attacked its forces on Sunday night at a military base in the central West Bank, vandalizing army vehicles and a security installation.

According to Israeli media, the attackers were settlers who targeted the commander of the military's Binyamin Regional Brigade, calling him a "traitor".

The attack was widely seen as a reprisal for the arrest of six settlers two days earlier.

In that incident, the commander and troops were attacked as they tried to stop settlers entering a closed military zone near the Palestinian village of Kafr Malik.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned both attacks, saying "no law-abiding country can tolerate acts of violence and anarchy".

Ben-Gvir was among the last senior figures to react.

"Harming our security forces, security installations and the soldiers who are our children, brothers and defenders, crosses a red line, and must be treated with the utmost severity," he wrote on X.

A lawyer, Ben-Gvir gained a name for himself before entering politics by defending in court several settlers accused of attacking Palestinians in the West Bank.

Smotrich wrote on X: "Violence against (Israeli) soldiers and our beloved police forces and the destruction of property are unacceptable."

- West Bank violence -

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and violence has surged there since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following Hamas's October 2023 attack.

Since then, Israeli troops or settlers in the West Bank have killed at least 947 Palestinians -- many of them militants, but also scores of civilians -- according to Palestinian health ministry figures.

At least 35 Israelis, including both civilians and security forces, have been killed in Palestinian attacks or Israeli military operations, according to Israeli official figures.

But settler attacks on army positions are rare.

"It was too much, even for the far-right," said Simon Perry, a security expert and associate professor in the criminology department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"The rioters went overboard," he told AFP.

Nimrod Goren, an expert on foreign relations and a veteran commentator on Israeli politics, said the far-right's outrage at the assault was merely "lip service", however.

Violent assaults by Israeli settlers against Palestinians have become common since 2023, without drawing any criticism from the political class, he noted.

"But when soldiers are affected, all of a sudden people are alerted," said Goren, who is chairman of the Israeli foreign policy think tank Mitvim.

- Settlers' eviction drive -

According to the two Israeli experts, the rioters were part of an informal movement known as the hilltop youth, whose goal is to evict Palestinian residents and establish settlements in the West Bank without government approval.

The movement constitutes a fringe, even among the Religious Zionist movement, the ideological backbone of the settlement enterprise.

Several human rights NGOs have denounced the rise in violence committed by the settlers, and their perceived impunity.

Shortly after his appointment in November 2024, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced an end to administrative detention for West Bank settlers, a practice that allows security forces to detain suspects without charge.

Israeli media say the move emboldened extremist settlers and led to a wave of attacks in the Palestinian territory.

On Tuesday, the Israeli press reported that Katz would not bring it back, contrary to the opinion of Israel's Shin Bet security service.

The measure is still in place for Palestinians.

The recent settler violence against army positions in the West Bank even prompted condemnation from leaders within the movement.

"Those who wish to protest must act according to the law and not confront the army," Oded Revivi, a former mayor of the Efrat settlement, and a prominent settler figure, told AFP.

There are around 160 Israeli settlements scattered throughout the West Bank, which the UN considers illegal. Their residents number about 500,000, living among a population of three million Palestinians.