Int’l Crisis Group: 3 Possible Scenarios to End Sudan Bloodshed

Hundreds of protesters march in and around Sudan's capital city, Khartoum. AP file photo
Hundreds of protesters march in and around Sudan's capital city, Khartoum. AP file photo
TT
20

Int’l Crisis Group: 3 Possible Scenarios to End Sudan Bloodshed

Hundreds of protesters march in and around Sudan's capital city, Khartoum. AP file photo
Hundreds of protesters march in and around Sudan's capital city, Khartoum. AP file photo

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has fewer options to placate demonstrators, the International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank which researches ways to prevent war, has said in a report.

Three scenarios appear possible as protests have rocked Sudan since December 19, when the government raised the price of bread.

One, continue to subdue protesters by force. This in turn would “almost certainly end prospects of the US lifting its remaining sanctions, including its designation of Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism, which in effect bars Sudan from international debt relief or bailouts,” ICG said.

A second scenario could see protests gathering pace and prompting Bashir’s ouster by elements within his party or security elites.

“This might usher in a new government and fresh direction, though it could also trigger further instability,” it said.

A third scenario would see Bashir resign. This would allow for a leadership change that could mollify protesters. “Some of Bashir’s allies and former senior officials are encouraging him to step down in 2020,” it said.

“Fearing the next government would hold him accountable for corruption at home or, if he leaves Sudan, delivery to the International Criminal Court,” it said.

The Brussels-based think-tank said the first priority should be to minimize bloodshed on the streets.

“Foreign governments with sway in Khartoum should publicly discourage violence against demonstrators and call on the government to maintain forces … in check,” it said.

“Western powers should continue to signal that future cooperation, aid and, in the US’s case, normalization of ties, are at stake.”

“The UN Security Council might also offer to request the ICC defer investigation or prosecution of Bashir’s case for one year, pursuant to the Rome Statute’s Article 16,” it added.



Hezbollah Rejects Deadline for its Disarmament as Lebanese Govt Holds Crucial Meeting

 Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem gives a televised speech from an unknown location, July 30, 2025 in this screen grab from video. (Al Manar TV/Reuters TV/via Reuters)
Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem gives a televised speech from an unknown location, July 30, 2025 in this screen grab from video. (Al Manar TV/Reuters TV/via Reuters)
TT
20

Hezbollah Rejects Deadline for its Disarmament as Lebanese Govt Holds Crucial Meeting

 Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem gives a televised speech from an unknown location, July 30, 2025 in this screen grab from video. (Al Manar TV/Reuters TV/via Reuters)
Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem gives a televised speech from an unknown location, July 30, 2025 in this screen grab from video. (Al Manar TV/Reuters TV/via Reuters)

Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem declared on Tuesday that his party will not agree to any timeframe for its disarmament as long as "Israel continues its aggression" against Lebanon.  

Lebanon's cabinet was meeting on Tuesday to discuss Hezbollah's arsenal, after Washington ramped up pressure on ministers to publicly commit to disarming the Iran-backed group and amid fears Israel could intensify strikes if they fail to do so.  

The session at Lebanon's presidential palace was the first time that cabinet would discuss the fate of Hezbollah's weapons - unimaginable when the group was at the zenith of its power just two years ago.  

In a televised address, Qassem urged the state to set "plans to confront the pressure and threats". It must not "strip its resistance (Hezbollah) of its abilities and strength," he added. 

Qassem threatened Israel directly for the first time in months, saying missiles would fall on it if it resumed a broad war on Lebanon. 

He said that, should Israel engage in a "large-scale aggression" against Lebanon, Hezbollah, Lebanon's army and Lebanon's people would defend themselves. 

"This defense will lead to missiles falling inside the Israeli entity, and all the security they have built over eight months will collapse within an hour," he said. 

A US-brokered ceasefire in November brought an end to months of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. The war killed much of Hezbollah's leadership - including Qassem's predecessor Hassan Nasrallah - and destroyed much of its arsenal. 

Qassem said the war had killed 5,000 Hezbollah fighters and wounded 13,000, the first official toll the group has given. But he said the organization remained in good order, with fighters ready to make "the harshest sacrifices" if needed. 

Minutes after he spoke, dozens of men on motorcycles carrying Hezbollah's yellow flags emerged from its strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs for the second day in a row. 

Pressure from the US and Hezbollah's domestic rivals for the group to relinquish its arms has spiked following last year's war with Israel.  

In June, US envoy Thomas Barrack proposed a roadmap to Lebanese officials to fully disarm Hezbollah, in exchange for Israel halting its strikes on Lebanon and withdrawing its troops from five points they still occupy in southern Lebanon.  

That proposal included a condition that Lebanon's government pass a cabinet decision clearly pledging to disarm Hezbollah.  

After Barrack made several trips to Lebanon to urge progress on the plan, Washington's patience began wearing thin, Reuters reported last week. It pressured Lebanon's ministers to swiftly make the public pledge so that talks could continue.  

But Lebanese officials and diplomats say such an explicit vow could spark communal tensions in Lebanon, where Hezbollah and its arsenal retain significant support among the country's Shiite community.  

Addressing Lebanese officials, Qassem said: "I hope you don't waste time on the storms stirred up by external dictates." 

PROPOSED WORDING  

On Monday evening, a group of dozens of motorcycles set out from a neighborhood in Beirut's suburbs where Hezbollah has strong support, carrying the party's flags.  

Hezbollah's main ally, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, has been in talks with President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam ahead of Tuesday's session to agree on a general phrase to include in a cabinet decision to appease the US and buy Lebanon more time, two Lebanese officials said.  

Berri's proposed wording would commit Lebanon to forming a national defense strategy and maintaining a ceasefire with Israel, but would avoid an explicit pledge to disarm Hezbollah across Lebanon, the officials said.  

But other Lebanese ministers plan to propose a formulation that commits Lebanon to a deadline to disarm Hezbollah, said Kamal Shehadi, a minister affiliated with the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party.  

"There's frankly no need to kick the can down the road and postpone a decision. We have to put Lebanon's interest first and take a decision today," Shehadi told Reuters.  

Lebanese officials and foreign envoys say Lebanese leaders fear that a failure to issue a clear decision on Tuesday could prompt Israel to escalate its strikes, including on Beirut.  

Since the ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out strikes on what it says are Hezbollah arms depots and fighters, mostly in southern Lebanon.