Despite Shrinking Influence, ISIS Still Poses a Threat

Smoke rises from clashes in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq July 10, 2017. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Smoke rises from clashes in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq July 10, 2017. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
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Despite Shrinking Influence, ISIS Still Poses a Threat

Smoke rises from clashes in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq July 10, 2017. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Smoke rises from clashes in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq July 10, 2017. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

A recent Saudi report showed ISIS’ shrinking presence in Iraq and Syria does not indicate the end of the threat posed by the terror organization known to include worldwide operatives; especially that foreign ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, where the group fought most to establish a self-proclaimed caliphate, will at a point return home.

The report, which examines about 760 cases of Saudi ISIS affiliates, was issued this month by the director of the security research unit at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Dr. Abdullah bin Khalid bin Saud.

The study relies on a number of documents leaked from ISIS in Syria. The report states that the Turkish border represented the crossing point for hundreds of Saudi fighters who joined the organization in both Iraq and Syria.

The first of its kind, the research paper provides important takes on the organization's insider environment and methods of recruitment, the motives driving conscripts towards joining the terror group, and sheds light on life under ISIS rule.

In early 2016, an enormous amount of classified documents related to ISIS foreign fighters were leaked. It was later acquired by a limited number of media and academic institutions, including the International Center for the Study of Extremism at King's College London.

The study provides an in-depth analysis of the leaked documents regarding 759 ISIS militants that came from Saudi Arabia - citizens and residents - listed in these documents, as well as important information on the recruitment strategy adopted by the group.

The study found that most Saudi fighters, although are youth, have not been victims of social isolation nor were considered as outcasts.

As for the demographics, the report revealed that the highest rate of ISIS militants per population belonged to Al-Qassim Region.



Israel Wants to Set up Buffer Zone in Southern Lebanon Until Army Is Deployed

 Smoke rise next to damaged buildings on an area of a village in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Kibbutz Manara, northern Israel, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rise next to damaged buildings on an area of a village in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Kibbutz Manara, northern Israel, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
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Israel Wants to Set up Buffer Zone in Southern Lebanon Until Army Is Deployed

 Smoke rise next to damaged buildings on an area of a village in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Kibbutz Manara, northern Israel, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rise next to damaged buildings on an area of a village in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Kibbutz Manara, northern Israel, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)

The Israeli army has been preventing the residents of southern Lebanon’s villages from returning to their homes, warning them against going back.

In a statement to the residents, Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said they are barred from returning home “until further notice.”

He warned that anyone heading to the barred areas would be putting their lives in danger.

However, the majority of the villages and towns mentioned by the Israeli army are located north of the Litani River.

A security sources said the army’s warning “is confusing and unacceptable, especially since it is continuing its razing of agricultural lands in Khiam city and other villages near the border.”

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The only explanation for this is that Israel is trying to impose a buffer zone in the 60-day period offered by the ceasefire until the Lebanese army and United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers can continue their deployment along the southern border and the monitoring committee can begin its work.”

The Israeli actions are a violation of the ceasefire, which went into effect on Wednesday, added the source.

The violations demand immediate political effort sand contacts with US officials so that they can put a stop to them and speed up the formation of the five-member committee that will be chaired by an American officer, he stated.

Military and strategic expert General Nizar Abdel Qader said: “Israel’s gains on the ground and its success in imposing its conditions in the ceasefire agreement have led it to believe that it has the final say” in the South.

“True, it did not achieve a crushing victory against Hezbollah, but it proved its military superiority and achieved major gains,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.”

“It is preventing the residents of the South from returning home because it fears that Hezbollah members may be among them. It has learned lessons from its withdrawal from the South in 2000 when Hezbollah imposed its total and sole control of the border,” he remarked.

“It also learned its lesson from its withdrawal in 2006 when it let the Lebanese state oversee the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and soon after Hezbollah built a much more powerful military arsenal,” he noted.

Moreover, Abdel Qader said the Israeli violations cannot be separated from what is happening in Israel itself. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believed that it was too soon to declare a ceasefire and he instead said that Israel did not stop the war and can launch it all over again.

The violations in the South are part of political maneuvers that Netanyahu is using to hide his “embarrassment in front of the Israeli opposition and are attempts to calm the extremist ministers in his government,” he explained.

Residents of the South have acknowledged that Israel is in fact dictating their return to their homes. They said that Hezbollah was the one who called the shots in 2006, but this is not the case now.

Sami, a resident of Yohmor north of the Litani, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel has been relentlessly attacking his town.

It is dangerous for people to return to their homes, he warned, revealing that Israel has imposed a no-go zone 5 km deep into Lebanon.

Israel has so far not fulfilled its side of the ceasefire, he noted.