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Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast for Oil Price in 2019

Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast for Oil Price in 2019
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Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast for Oil Price in 2019

Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast for Oil Price in 2019

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for crude oil prices this year, with supply hit by the “shock and awe” implementation of OPEC-led output cuts and by US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and unrest in Libya.

The investment bank said in a recent note that it now expects benchmark Brent crude prices to average $66 per barrel in 2019, compared with its previous estimate of $62.50.

It sees US crude oil averaging $59.50 per barrel, up from its last forecast of $55.50.

Oil prices hit their highest in five months on Tuesday, with Brent marking $71.34 per barrel and US crude reaching $64.77 per barrel.

Crude markets have tightened this year as the United States imposed sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela while the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been withholding supply to prop up prices.

Goldman added that it expected the Brent forward curve to shift further into backwardation, a situation where contracts for future delivery are cheaper than spot supplies. Backwardation indicates a tighter market.

That comes as Goldman expects the global oil market to remain in a supply-deficit of about 0.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

The bank now sees Brent prices at $72.50 per barrel in the second quarter, compared with $65 previously. But it maintained its 2020 Brent oil price forecast at $60 per barrel.

Saudi energy minister said Monday it was premature to say whether a consensus existed among OPEC and its allies to extend oil supply cuts but a meeting next month would be key.

A joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial committee known as the JMMC is due to meet in May.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are members of the panel, which includes other major oil producers that took part in a global supply-cutting agreement last year, such as Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

“JMMC will be a key decision point because we will certainly by then know where the consensus view is and, more importantly, before we ask for consensus, we will know where the fundamentals are pointing,” said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih.

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China Passes Revised Foreign Trade Law to Bolster Trade War Capabilities

Containers are seen at the port in Shanghai, China, Oct. 13, 2025. (AFP)
Containers are seen at the port in Shanghai, China, Oct. 13, 2025. (AFP)
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China Passes Revised Foreign Trade Law to Bolster Trade War Capabilities

Containers are seen at the port in Shanghai, China, Oct. 13, 2025. (AFP)
Containers are seen at the port in Shanghai, China, Oct. 13, 2025. (AFP)

China on Saturday passed revisions to a key piece of legislation aimed at strengthening Beijing's ability to wage trade war, curb outbound shipments from strategic minerals, and further open its $19 trillion economy.

The latest revision to the Foreign Trade Law, approved by China's top legislative body, will take effect on March 1, 2026, state news agency Xinhua reported on Saturday.

The world's second-largest economy is overhauling its trade-related legal frameworks partly to convince members of a major trans-Pacific trade bloc created to counter China's growing influence that the manufacturing powerhouse ‌deserves a seat at ‌the table, as Beijing seeks to reduce ‌its ⁠reliance on the US.

Adopted ‌in 1994 and revised three times since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, most recently in 2022, the Foreign Trade Law empowers policymakers to hit back against trading partners that seek to curb its exports and to adopt mechanisms such as "negative lists" to open restricted sectors to foreign firms.

The revision also adds a provision that foreign trade should "serve national economic and social development" and help build China ⁠into a "strong trading nation", Xinhua said.

It further "expands and improves" the legal toolkit for countering external challenges, according ‌to the report.

The revision focuses on areas such ‍as digital and green trade, along ‍with intellectual property provisions, key improvements China needs to make to meet the ‍standards of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, rather than the trade defense tools the 2020 revamp honed in on following four years of tariff war with the first Trump administration.

Beijing is also sharpening the wording of its powers in anticipation of potential lawsuits from private firms, which are becoming increasingly prominent in China, according to trade diplomats.

"Ministries have become more concerned about private sector criticism," ⁠said one Western trade diplomat with decades' of experience working with China. "China is a rule-of-law country, so the government can stop a company's shipment, but it needs a reason."

"It's not totally lawless here. Better to have everything written out in black and white," they added, requesting anonymity, as they were not authorized to speak with media.

China's private exporting firms attracted global attention in November after the French government moved to suspend the Chinese e-commerce platform Shein.

The Chinese government increasingly could also find itself at odds with private enterprise when seeking to carry out sweeping bans, ‌such as Beijing's prohibition of all Japanese seafood imports, as Asia's top two economies continue to feud over Taiwan, trade diplomats say.

Business

Lebanese Cabinet Approves Draft Law on Financial Crisis Losses

A photograph released by the Lebanese Government Press Office on December 26, 2025, show Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaking during a press conference after a cabinet session in Beirut on December 26, 2025. (Photo by Handout / Lebanese Government Press Office / AFP)
A photograph released by the Lebanese Government Press Office on December 26, 2025, show Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaking during a press conference after a cabinet session in Beirut on December 26, 2025. (Photo by Handout / Lebanese Government Press Office / AFP)
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Lebanese Cabinet Approves Draft Law on Financial Crisis Losses

A photograph released by the Lebanese Government Press Office on December 26, 2025, show Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaking during a press conference after a cabinet session in Beirut on December 26, 2025. (Photo by Handout / Lebanese Government Press Office / AFP)
A photograph released by the Lebanese Government Press Office on December 26, 2025, show Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaking during a press conference after a cabinet session in Beirut on December 26, 2025. (Photo by Handout / Lebanese Government Press Office / AFP)

Lebanon's government on Friday approved a draft law to distribute financial losses from the 2019 economic crisis that deprived many Lebanese of their deposits despite strong opposition to the legislation from political parties, depositors and banking officials.

The draft law will be submitted to the country's divided parliament for approval before it can become effective.

The legislation, known as the "financial gap" law, is part of a series of reform measures required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to access funding from the lender.

The cabinet passed the draft bill with 13 ministers in favor and nine against. It stipulates that each of the state, the central bank, commercial banks and depositors will share the losses accrued as a result of the financial crisis.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam defended the bill, saying it "is not ideal... and may not meet everyone's aspirations" but is "a realistic and fair step on the path to restoring rights, stopping the collapse... and healing the banking sector.”

According to government estimates, the losses resulting from the financial crisis amounted to about $70 billion, a figure that is expected to have increased over the six years that the crisis was left unaddressed.

Depositors who have less than $100,000 in the banks, and who constitute 85 percent of total accounts, will be able to recover them in full over a period of four years, Salam said.

Larger depositors will be able to obtain $100,000 while the remaining part of their funds will be compensated through tradable bonds, which will be backed by the assets of the central bank.

The central bank's portfolio includes approximately $50 billion, according to Salam.

The premier told journalists that the bill includes "accountability and oversight for the first time.”

"Everyone who transferred their money before the financial collapse in 2019 by exploiting their position or influence... and everyone who benefited from excessive profits or bonuses will be held accountable and required to pay compensation of up to 30 percent of these amounts," he said.

Responding to objections from banking officials, who claim components of the bill place a major burden on the banks, Salam said the law "also aims to revive the banking sector by assessing bank assets and recapitalizing them.”

The IMF, which closely monitored the drafting of the bill, previously insisted on the need to "restore the viability of the banking sector consistent with international standards" and protect small depositors.

Parliament passed a banking secrecy reform law in April, followed by a banking sector restructuring law in June, one of several key pieces of legislation aimed at reforming the financial system.

However, observers believe it is unlikely that parliament will pass the current bill before the next legislative elections in May.

Financial reforms in Lebanon have been repeatedly derailed by political and private interests over the last six years, but Salam and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun have pledged to prioritize them.

Business

Türkiye Says Russia Gave It $9 Billion in New Financing for Akkuyu Nuclear Plant

Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar talks during a meeting in Ankara, Türkiye, September 14, 2023. (Reuters)
Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar talks during a meeting in Ankara, Türkiye, September 14, 2023. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Says Russia Gave It $9 Billion in New Financing for Akkuyu Nuclear Plant

Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar talks during a meeting in Ankara, Türkiye, September 14, 2023. (Reuters)
Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar talks during a meeting in Ankara, Türkiye, September 14, 2023. (Reuters)

Türkiye's energy minister said Russia had provided new financing worth $9 billion for the Akkuyu nuclear power plant being built by ​Moscow's state nuclear energy company Rosatom, adding Ankara expected the power plant to be operational in 2026.

Rosatom is building Türkiye's first nuclear power station at Akkuyu in the Mediterranean province of Mersin per a 2010 accord worth $20 billion. The plant was expected ‌to be operational ‌this year, but has been ‌delayed.

"This (financing) ⁠will ​most ‌likely be used in 2026-2027. There will be at least $4-5 billion from there for 2026 in terms of foreign financing," Alparslan Bayraktar told some local reporters at a briefing in Istanbul, according to a readout from his ministry.

He said ⁠Türkiye was in talks with South Korea, China, Russia, and ‌the United States on ‍nuclear projects in ‍the Sinop province and Thrace region, and added ‍Ankara wanted to receive "the most competitive offer".

Bayraktar said Türkiye wanted to generate nuclear power at home and aimed to provide clear figures on targets.