Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
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Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)

The Sudanese Professionals Association, which led months of protests that eventually forced one of Africa's longest-ruling leaders from power, says its revolution is far from over.

The umbrella group of unions succeeded where war and sanctions failed — in ending President Omar al-Bashir's three-decade rule. This week the protesters scored another victory by forcing three figures seen as too close to the ousted regime to resign from the military council that assumed power after overthrowing al-Bashir on April 11.

The SPA says protesters will remain in the streets until the military hands power to a transitional civilian government. But as the standoff continues, it risks being drawn into the maelstrom of Sudanese politics, where politicians have bickered in the capital as rebellions have raged in the far-flung provinces of one of Africa's biggest and most chaotic countries.

The Associated Press takes a look at the SPA and the challenges it faces:

Who are the protesters and what do they want?
Under Bashir, the state controlled all professional associations, leading doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and others to form independent unions. Three years ago, they joined together and formed the SPA.

In December, as Sudan grappled with rising prices and shortages, the SPA planned a march to the capital, Khartoum, to demand wage increases. But when separate demonstrations over rising bread prices erupted in Atbara, a railway hub north of Khartoum, the SPA broadened its demands to the overthrow of the government, invoking slogans from the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.

The group's decentralized leadership allowed it to keep organizing, even after the arrest of several of its leaders. Tech-savvy young people swelled its ranks, using social media to organize rallies and document the government's crackdown, said the AP.

The group established a mass sit-in outside the military headquarters in the capital on April 6. Five days later, the military removed Bashir from office, and he now languishes in a Khartoum jail that was filled with detained protesters in the months before his downfall.

The SPA has rallied other factions and civil society groups under its "Declaration of Freedom and Change."

The document calls for dismantling Bashir's regime and establishing an elected government with a new constitution. It also calls for ending "all discrimination and oppressive practices" toward women.

But the immediate focus is on pressuring the military to relinquish power. The SPA has called for the formation of a legislative council — in which at least 40 percent of the membership would be women — to draft laws and oversee a cabinet of technocrats until a new constitution is written.

Is civilian rule possible?
Sudanese history since independence in 1956 has been marked by long periods of military dictatorship punctuated by short bouts of dysfunctional parliamentary politics.

"The Sudanese people have no faith in political parties because those parties were always making compromises with the regime in order to garner parliamentary seats or cabinet portfolios," said Mohammed al-Neel, a 25-year-old protester.

"What is making the Sudanese Professionals Association garner all this following is the fact that it does not have any partisan leanings," he added, according to the AP.

The SPA may still struggle to negotiate Khartoum's politics.

The military has said it is reaching out to all political forces, raising fears among the SPA that it could cut deals with established parties, or even Bashir's National Congress Party, leaving much of his regime intact.

"The SPA is trusted by the Sudanese people, but it is one of five groups that formed the coalition," said Ibrahim al-Sheikh Abdel Rahman, a senior member of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party, which is part of the coalition. "We do not see the SPA as the leader of the revolution."

Ismail Adam, a senior member of the Umma Party, one of Sudan's oldest parties, said "it's true the SPA has risen with the people, but there is no democracy without political parties."

What about the provinces?
For decades, Sudan has been convulsed by rebellions in the provinces by ethnic and religious minorities who felt marginalized or oppressed by the Khartoum government.

When an insurgency broke out in the western Darfur province in 2003, Bashir mobilized militias known as the Janjaweed, who carried out a wave of atrocities against ethnic African groups there. The International Criminal Court later indicted al-Bashir on charges of genocide, the only time it has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state, said the AP.

Another war has been underway since 2011 in the provinces of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Rebels there announced a cease-fire earlier this month in support of the protests, which is expected to last until July 31.

The Declaration of Freedom and Change calls for ending Sudan's "civil wars" by "addressing the root causes," and reaching agreements that are "fair, just and comprehensive."

But that's a goal that has largely eluded all of Sudan's past governments, civilian and military. Prolonged unrest and a lingering economic crisis could fuel renewed demands for autonomy or outright independence among marginalized groups.

"The coalition is very cohesive now, because it is based on the minimum requirements for an agreement, which is the toppling of the regime," said Atef Ismail, a leader in the Sudanese Communist Party. "Everybody agrees on that."



Macron Tries to Assuage NATO Fears despite French Political Limbo

 France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press briefing during NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington, US, July 11, 2024. (Reuters)
France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press briefing during NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington, US, July 11, 2024. (Reuters)
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Macron Tries to Assuage NATO Fears despite French Political Limbo

 France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press briefing during NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington, US, July 11, 2024. (Reuters)
France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press briefing during NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington, US, July 11, 2024. (Reuters)

French President Emmanuel Macron once shook up NATO by declaring it was suffering "brain death". But his days of such boldness on the international stage may be slipping away after his gamble on a snap election produced political paralysis at home.

At NATO's Washington summit, allies have been left wondering how much of a role Paris can play in the transatlantic alliance in the years ahead, adding to uncertainty stemming from US President Joe Biden's faltering reelection bid and a possible return of NATO skeptic Donald Trump to the White House.

"We all know that wherever in the world, foreign policy begins at home and if at home you have troubles, they will of course affect or impact one way or another your foreign policy abroad," said a European Union diplomat on the summit sidelines.

Macron has kept a low media profile at the summit, with plans to hold just one press conference later on Thursday. Behind the scenes, he was keen to tell allies that the result of Sunday's parliamentary election in France was not as bad as had been feared, as either the far-right nor far-left won an overall majority.

Either outcome would have posed the most severe challenges for Macron's foreign policy with both blocs deemed more pro-Russian and less NATO-friendly. But the election has left France in limbo - with three blocs short of a majority and no new government in sight.

Once a government is in place, it is like Macron will have a prime minister more in tune with his thinking internationally even if he will not have a free hand on foreign policy like in the past.

Three European officials said Macron had taken the time in the North Atlantic Council - the main political decision-making body within NATO - to underscore his message and reaffirm France's support for Ukraine.

That was in stark contrast to five years ago in the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary, when he stole the headlines after calling the alliance "brain dead" and urging it to wake up after becoming too focused on budget issues instead of evolving geopolitics.

Publicly, other NATO leaders played down France's political troubles.

"It is up to the politicians to find solutions and to make something out if it," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters. "I'm quite confident."

Officials said Scholz had joked with Macron about the idiosyncrasies of creating and working within a coalition - a persistent headache for the German leader and something that Macron will need to learn in the coming months.

Keen to show Paris is still active internationally, Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu signed an agreement on the summit sidelines with his German, Italian and Polish counterparts to develop long-range cruise missile capabilities.

"It is an alliance that brings together democracies. So, by definition, in a democracy, faces can change," Lecornu said of NATO when asked whether Macron and France had been weakened.

ELECTION AFTERMATH

But the after-effects of Sunday's election were evident at the summit. Macron was the last leader to arrive, missing a NATO 75th anniversary dinner. He had already scaled back his trip to just 36 hours, having dropped plans to add a visit to Canada.

His foreign minister, Stephane Sejourne, did not accompany him, focusing on his role as the head of Macron's political party back in Paris. Sejourne was not obliged to attend the summit but many other foreign ministers were present.

Several French diplomats said they had lacked instructions in the run-up to the NATO summit and were feeling directionless.

Unlike many other leaders at the NATO gathering and in a marked contrast to his appearance at the G7 summit in Bari a few weeks ago, Macron kept his public words to a minimum.

"Allies. United and in solidarity against Russia's brutal war of aggression in Ukraine. A crucial moment for Europe's security and peace," he posted on X.

A Ukrainian diplomat said "a worst-case scenario" for Macron and Kyiv had been avoided in the French election.

"Yes, he will have his wings clipped and he may not be able to govern, but we have our fingers crossed," the diplomat said.

Asked by reporters about the political situation and its impact internationally, the often-loquacious Macron said only: "By definition, I will not comment on national politics here."

Those were his first public remarks in almost two weeks since a summit in Brussels.

But European officials said that he could not be written off yet and would still be in charge of defense and foreign policy.

With neither the far-right nor far-left winning a majority, in the immediate term the existing government remains in place while negotiations to create some form of coalition to govern take place.

The most likely scenario is a prime minister from the center-left or center-right that would not oppose his Ukraine policy or NATO.

That could enable him to move forward on some initiatives such as sending Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine or creating a coalition of countries to send military trainers there. But there is now at least a question mark over those ideas.

Some officials pointed to a turnaround in fortunes between France and Britain, the latter often seen as a hub of chaos in recent years following its exit from the European Union but now under a new Labour government with a large majority.

Macron met new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as soon as he arrived in Washington and the two discussed their respective elections, two diplomats said.

"He can be the center of attention and give Britain a new lease of life," one French diplomat said of Starmer.

"For us, it's the opposite. We don't know where we are going."