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Egypt Central Bank Makes 2nd Consecutive Cut to Key Rates

Central Bank of Egypt's headquarter is seen in downtown Cairo, Egypt September 18, 2018. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
Central Bank of Egypt's headquarter is seen in downtown Cairo, Egypt September 18, 2018. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
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Egypt Central Bank Makes 2nd Consecutive Cut to Key Rates

Central Bank of Egypt's headquarter is seen in downtown Cairo, Egypt September 18, 2018. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
Central Bank of Egypt's headquarter is seen in downtown Cairo, Egypt September 18, 2018. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Egypt’s central bank on Thursday cut its key interest rates for the second month in a row, after inflation fell further and as central banks globally ease monetary policy.

The overnight deposit and lending rates were cut by 100 basis points to 13.25 percent and 14.25 percent respectively.

All 11 economists surveyed by Reuters had said the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) monetary policy committee would cut rates. Five said the bank would cut by 100 bps, three predicted a 150 bps cut and three 50 bps.

“It’s good for the economy, but broadly in line with expectations,” said Allen Sandeep, head of research at Egypt-based Naeem Brokerage, which predicted a 150 bps cut.

“We expect the monetary easing cycle to continue as inflation is likely to drop further before the MPC meets again in November,” Sandeep said.

The central bank cut rates after inflation figures fell to their lowest in more than six years, it said in a statement.

“Globally, the expansion of economic activity continued to weaken, financial conditions eased, and trade tensions continued to weigh on the outlook,” the bank said. “International oil prices remain subject to volatility due to potential supply-side factors that include geopolitical risks.”

July inflation came in significantly below expectations, and the headline figure fell further in August to a six-year low of 7.5 percent. Headline inflation reached a 2019 high of 14.4 percent in February.

At its last policy meeting in August, the central bank slashed its overnight deposit and lending rates by 150 basis points to 14.25 percent and 15.25 percent respectively.

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US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
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US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)

Massive planned US duties on solar panels made in Southeast Asia could be a chance for the region to ramp up its own long-stalled energy transition, experts say.
Earlier this month, Washington announced plans for hefty duties on solar panels made in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
The levies follow an investigation, launched before US President Donald Trump took office, into "unfair practices" in the countries, particularly by Chinese-headquartered firms, AFP said.
If approved next month, they will pile upon tariffs already imposed by the Trump administration, including blanket 10-percent levies for most countries, and 145 percent on Chinese-made goods.
For the US market, the consequences are likely to be severe. China makes eight out of every 10 solar panels globally, and controls 80 percent of every stage of the manufacturing process.
The new tariffs "will practically make solar exports to US impossible commercially", said Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute think tank.
Southeast Asia accounted for nearly 80 percent of US solar panel imports in 2024.
And while investment in solar production has ramped up in the United States in recent years, the market still relies heavily on imported components.
For Chinese manufacturers, already dealing with a saturated domestic market, the raft of tariffs is potentially very bad news.
Many shifted operations to Southeast Asia hoping to avoid punitive measures imposed by Washington and the European Union as they try to protect and nurture domestic solar industries.
The proposed new duties range from around 40 percent for some Malaysian exports to an eye-watering 3,521 percent for some Cambodia-based manufacturers.
- Tariffs 'accelerate' transition -
But there may be a silver lining for the region, explained Ben McCarron, managing director at Asia Research & Engagement.
"The tariffs and trade war are likely to accelerate the energy transition in Southeast Asia," he said.
China will "supercharge efforts" in regional markets and push for policy and implementation plans to "enable fast adoption of green energy across the region", driven by its exporters.
Analysts have long warned that countries in the region are moving too slowly to transition from planet-warming fossil fuels like coal.
"At the current pace, it (Southeast Asia) risks missing out on the opportunities provided by the declining costs of wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels," said energy think tank Ember in a report last year.
For example, Malaysia relied on fossil fuels for over 80 percent of its electricity generation last year.
It aims to generate 24 percent from renewables by 2030, a target that has been criticized as out of step with global climate goals.
The tariff regime represents a double opportunity for the region, explained Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember.
So far, the local solar industry has been "largely opportunistic, focused on leveraging domestic resources or labor advantages for export gains", he told AFP.
Cut off from the US market, it could instead focus on local energy transitions, speeding green energy uptake locally and driving a new market that "could serve as a natural hedge against external volatility".
Still, replacing the US market will not be easy, given its size and the relatively nascent state of renewables in the region.
"Success hinges on turning this export-led momentum into a homegrown cleantech revolution," said Yang.
"Clearance prices" may be attractive to some, but countries in the region and beyond may also be cautious about a flood of solar, said Adhiguna.
Major markets like Indonesia and India already have measures in place intended to favor domestic solar production.
"Many will hesitate to import massively, prioritizing trade balance and aims to create local green jobs," he said.