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Saudi Arabia: Non-oil Economy Sees Fastest Growth in 4 years

A general view of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia (File photo: Reuters)
A general view of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia (File photo: Reuters)
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Saudi Arabia: Non-oil Economy Sees Fastest Growth in 4 years

A general view of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia (File photo: Reuters)
A general view of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia (File photo: Reuters)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector improved at the fastest pace since four years, with business conditions improving due to increased demand, according to an international survey covering 40 economies around the world.

IHS Markit indicated that Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 57.8 in October from 57.3 in September. The index was the highest since August 2015 and signaled a sustained improvement in growth momentum.

The results showed that the attacks on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities last September did not affect the broader economy, but continued to accelerate production growth and expand at the fastest rate in 22 months, supported by increased demand.

The report pointed out that demand is the main source of growth from the domestic market.

Growth increased this year after a slowdown in 2018 due to fuel price increases and the introduction of VAT by 5 percent.

Economist at IHS Markit, Amritpal Virdee, explained that growth momentum continued to build during October, with the headline PMI posting its highest figure since August 2015.

“Output and new orders expanded at faster rates, mostly driven by domestic sales,” however, he noted that employment growth was marginal and slowed from September, as firms remained cautious about taking on additional staff.

“At current levels, the PMI is indicative of GDP expanding at an annual rate of around 4 percent, which would be a notable acceleration in growth from the start of 2019.”

Average prices in October fell at the fastest rate since April as survey participants announced price cuts to attract customers.

Last week, Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan indicated that the preliminary economic results and indicators reflect significant progress.

Jadaan said at a press conference that the real GDP has achieved positive growth rates of about 1.1 percent during the first half of 2019 supported by the growth of the non-oil sector, which grew by 2.5 percent in the same period.

Initial estimates indicate that GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2019, with an expected acceleration in non-oil GDP growth rates. This performance is expected to continue to improve in 2020, with GDP growth projected to reach 2.3 percent.

The Kingdom's fiscal policy aims to achieve a balance between maintaining fiscal sustainability and enhancing economic growth and development, said the Minister.

He also concluded that supporting economic transformation in line with Vision 2030 can be achieved through efficiency and effectiveness within the framework of fiscal discipline, improving the basic services provided to citizens, diversifying government revenue sources, and empowering the private sector.

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Business

Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzania

A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
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Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzania

A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 

Saudi Gold Refinery Company (SGR) announced Sunday it has secured 10 licenses to explore gold in the Republic of Tanzania, covering a total area of nearly 1,000 square kilometers, in a move aimed at expanding the company’s mining operations outside the Kingdom.

The company said it has allocated an initial investment of $10 million to carry out exploration activities, within an ambitious plan to gradually increase total investments to $100 million. These investments will support the development, establishment, and operation of gold mines, with commercial production targeted to commence by 2030.

The announcement follows a visit to Tanzania by Faisal Suliman Al-Othaim, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors at SGR.

According to the company, this milestone is supported by the Ministry of Investment and the Saudi Embassy in Tanzania, highlighting the importance of strengthening Saudi investments abroad and creating new opportunities for national companies in the global mining industry.

SGR continues to advance its global expansion strategy through its international investment arm, UGM Tanzania co, which oversees its operations and investment activities in Tanzania and Ethiopia.

The company also maintains ongoing projects and business activities in Egypt and the Sultanate of Oman, while actively exploring opportunities in additional markets to further expand its global footprint and create sustainable value across the mining sector.

In the Saudi market, the company plans to develop six to ten mines before 2030, at an average rate of two mines per year. These plans are supported by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, financial institutions and other relevant authorities and stakeholders.

 

 

 

Business

Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’

A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
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Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’

A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)

Oil prices fell at Monday's open after US President Donald Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new Iran attacks while talks to end the conflict make progress, despite both nations' reports of attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent was down 84 cents, or 0.85%, to $97.48 a barrel by 0138 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate fell 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.51 a barrel.

The fall reversed minor gains made on Friday’s settlement as the market assessed the possibility of further US ‌strikes on Iran, ‌although Brent fell 17% last week, the ‌steepest ⁠weekly drop since the ⁠start of the COVID pandemic and the biggest in absolute terms, according to LSEG data dating back to 1988.

"It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump told CNN in a phone interview. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary."

Trump had hinted at renewing attacks on Iran after ⁠last week's US midterm elections, but there has ‌been no sign of a large-scale ‌US military operation. Iran has said it would respond by striking US and ‌Israeli targets.

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, called ‌Trump's comments "more measured" but said "the market is still waiting to see whether the midterms have produced a lasting shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict, or whether this is just another temporary change in tone."

Oil is headed ‌for a glut again as recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production from other countries and ⁠weak demand have ⁠pushed global supply above consumption, JPMorgan said in a report on Friday, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.

On Sunday, Iraq reached an understanding with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a shipping lane near Oman, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said in an interview with Al Jazeera.

He said Iraq's losses from the Iran war and disruptions to oil exports had reached $60 billion.

Business

Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Project

A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
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Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Project

A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states took a new step toward completing the railway interconnection project by signing the project's general agreement in Bahrain on Sunday. This comes as part of efforts to establish an integrated transport network linking the six nations and boosting the movement of passengers, goods, and commercial trade among them.

Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa told Asharq Al-Awsat that each country will fund and execute the portion of the project located within its territory.

Meanwhile, the costs, fees, and expenses associated with the shared interconnection components among member states will be determined collectively, he added.

He explained that the agreement establishes a joint framework for the project's execution and operation, while defining the obligations of member states and their coordination mechanisms.

He noted that the network, which extends some 2,117 kilometers, aims to transport 6 million passengers and 200 million tons of freight by 2030, with the figures projected to rise to more than 8 million passengers and 271 million tons of freight by 2045.

The project spans from Kuwait, passing through Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, all the way to Oman, with the goal of achieving full network operations by December 2030.

According to the minister, interconnection lines between adjacent countries can become operational as soon as their components are completed, without the need to wait for the entire Gulf network to be finalized.

National financing and potential partnerships

On private sector participation, Al Khalifa said that it remains one of the viable options for financing, executing, or operating certain components of the project, depending on the outcomes of economic and financial studies. He stressed that there is no unified public-private partnership model approved across the entire network.

There are currently no pre-existing agreements with specific international partners to finance or execute the project, he said. However, the expertise of global companies in the fields of design, engineering, technology, and operating systems could be utilized based on the project's needs and its various phases.

Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.

Concerning the project's announced completion rate, the minister explained that the 50 percent figure represents the average progress achieved across member states, and does not mean that half of the construction work for the entire Gulf network has been completed.

The project's cost estimates are currently undergoing review and updates in light of economic shifts, rising prices for materials and services, construction costs, and inflation, he revealed without specifying an updated total cost at the present time.

Returns beyond passenger and freight transport

Al Khalifa said that the economic impact of the project is not limited to facilitating passenger movement and freight transport, but extends to improving supply chain efficiency, boosting trade among GCC countries, and linking industrial centers, economic zones, and logistical hubs, as well as supporting employment and investment opportunities.

He added that determining the project's exact contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) or estimating expected savings in time and costs remains premature, given that returns vary depending on transport routes, the nature of the cargo, and the points of origin and destination.

In light of the challenges facing maritime navigation in the region, the minister stressed that the Gulf railway network is not intended to serve as a substitute for maritime transport. Instead, it acts as a complementary route that boosts transport options and connectivity among GCC nations, increasing the resilience of supply chains against disruptions that could affect various modes of transportation.

He noted that integration between ports, roads, railways, and airports will strengthen the flexibility of the Gulf transport system, while connecting to broader international logistical corridors remains a future possibility contingent on completing studies, understandings, and coordination with the relevant countries and entities.

King Hamad Bridge to link Bahrain and Saudi Arabia

Regarding the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Al Khalifa explained that the King Hamad Bridge project includes road lanes and railway lines, enabling the international passenger station in Bahrain to connect with the Saudi railway network and forming one of the essential components for completing the Gulf interconnection.

He added that work is underway on the privatization procedures for the King Fahd Causeway Authority, alongside completing the necessary studies and procedures to transition to the execution of the new bridge project.

Achieving the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is a fundamental requirement for operating the railway line between the two countries within the project's targeted timeframe in December 2030,e he said.