A protester carries a flag as he stands in front of police officers outside of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants during a protest in Beirut, Lebanon November 9, 2019. REUTERS/Andres Martinez Casares
A protester carries a flag as he stands in front of police officers outside of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants during a protest in Beirut, Lebanon November 9, 2019. REUTERS/Andres Martinez Casares
S&P Global Ratings Friday downgraded Lebanon's sovereign debt, saying a twin political and economic crisis had hit investor confidence and constrained the government's funding model, which relies on deposit inflows.
The move to lower the protest-hit country's credit ratings to 'CCC/C' from 'B-/B' with a negative outlook came one day after S&P said it had downgraded three Lebanese banks.
It also came after Moody's rating agency downgraded Lebanon's sovereign debt earlier this month, saying sweeping anti-government protests had hit investor confidence and threatened macro-economic stability.
The demonstrations have rocked Lebanon since October 17, forcing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign last month and banks to close.
Most ATMs no longer dispense dollar bills and banks have capped the amount that can be withdrawn from branches or transferred abroad.
As a result, the exchange rate in the parallel market has surpassed 1,800 Lebanese pounds for every dollar -- a spike from the pegged rate of 1,500.
On Friday, S&P said: "Diminishing confidence in Lebanon's governance and economy have led to a reversal in bank deposit inflows, which have historically financed Lebanon's elevated fiscal and external deficits."
"Bank closures and unofficial foreign currency transfer restrictions raise questions about the sustainability of the exchange rate regime, further eroding confidence," it added in a statement on its website.
Even before the protests began, growth in Lebanon had plummeted in the wake of repeated political deadlocks in recent years.
Public debt stood at more than $86 billion, or higher than 150 percent of GDP, according to the finance ministry.
S&P on Friday said it expects the general government deficit will average 11.6 percent of GDP over 2019-2022 and gross general government debt will increase to 169 percent of GDP by 2022.
It also called for the formation of a technocratic government -- a key demand of the country's protest movement.
"If a new, largely technocratic government is formed within the next month and is able to introduce immediate policy reforms... this could help defuse social tensions and support depositor confidence."
Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzaniahttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5339138-saudi-gold-refinery-obtains-10-gold-exploration-licenses-tanzania
Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzania
A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
Saudi Gold Refinery Company (SGR) announced Sunday it has secured 10 licenses to explore gold in the Republic of Tanzania, covering a total area of nearly 1,000 square kilometers, in a move aimed at expanding the company’s mining operations outside the Kingdom.
The company said it has allocated an initial investment of $10 million to carry out exploration activities, within an ambitious plan to gradually increase total investments to $100 million. These investments will support the development, establishment, and operation of gold mines, with commercial production targeted to commence by 2030.
The announcement follows a visit to Tanzania by Faisal Suliman Al-Othaim, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors at SGR.
According to the company, this milestone is supported by the Ministry of Investment and the Saudi Embassy in Tanzania, highlighting the importance of strengthening Saudi investments abroad and creating new opportunities for national companies in the global mining industry.
SGR continues to advance its global expansion strategy through its international investment arm, UGM Tanzania co, which oversees its operations and investment activities in Tanzania and Ethiopia.
The company also maintains ongoing projects and business activities in Egypt and the Sultanate of Oman, while actively exploring opportunities in additional markets to further expand its global footprint and create sustainable value across the mining sector.
In the Saudi market, the company plans to develop six to ten mines before 2030, at an average rate of two mines per year. These plans are supported by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, financial institutions and other relevant authorities and stakeholders.
Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’https://english.aawsat.com/business/5339128-oil-falls-trump-says-new-iran-attacks-%E2%80%98unlikely%E2%80%99
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
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Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
Oil prices fell at Monday's open after US President Donald Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new Iran attacks while talks to end the conflict make progress, despite both nations' reports of attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent was down 84 cents, or 0.85%, to $97.48 a barrel by 0138 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate fell 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.51 a barrel.
The fall reversed minor gains made on Friday’s settlement as the market assessed the possibility of further US strikes on Iran, although Brent fell 17% last week, the steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID pandemic and the biggest in absolute terms, according to LSEG data dating back to 1988.
"It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump told CNN in a phone interview. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary."
Trump had hinted at renewing attacks on Iran after last week's US midterm elections, but there has been no sign of a large-scale US military operation. Iran has said it would respond by striking US and Israeli targets.
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, called Trump's comments "more measured" but said "the market is still waiting to see whether the midterms have produced a lasting shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict, or whether this is just another temporary change in tone."
Oil is headed for a glut again as recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production from other countries and weak demand have pushed global supply above consumption, JPMorgan said in a report on Friday, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.
On Sunday, Iraq reached an understanding with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a shipping lane near Oman, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
He said Iraq's losses from the Iran war and disruptions to oil exports had reached $60 billion.
Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Projecthttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5338994-bahraini-transport-minister-asharq-al-awsat-each-country-finance-its-share-gulf
Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Project
A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states took a new step toward completing the railway interconnection project by signing the project's general agreement in Bahrain on Sunday. This comes as part of efforts to establish an integrated transport network linking the six nations and boosting the movement of passengers, goods, and commercial trade among them.
Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa told Asharq Al-Awsat that each country will fund and execute the portion of the project located within its territory.
Meanwhile, the costs, fees, and expenses associated with the shared interconnection components among member states will be determined collectively, he added.
He explained that the agreement establishes a joint framework for the project's execution and operation, while defining the obligations of member states and their coordination mechanisms.
He noted that the network, which extends some 2,117 kilometers, aims to transport 6 million passengers and 200 million tons of freight by 2030, with the figures projected to rise to more than 8 million passengers and 271 million tons of freight by 2045.
The project spans from Kuwait, passing through Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, all the way to Oman, with the goal of achieving full network operations by December 2030.
According to the minister, interconnection lines between adjacent countries can become operational as soon as their components are completed, without the need to wait for the entire Gulf network to be finalized.
National financing and potential partnerships
On private sector participation, Al Khalifa said that it remains one of the viable options for financing, executing, or operating certain components of the project, depending on the outcomes of economic and financial studies. He stressed that there is no unified public-private partnership model approved across the entire network.
There are currently no pre-existing agreements with specific international partners to finance or execute the project, he said. However, the expertise of global companies in the fields of design, engineering, technology, and operating systems could be utilized based on the project's needs and its various phases.
Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.
Concerning the project's announced completion rate, the minister explained that the 50 percent figure represents the average progress achieved across member states, and does not mean that half of the construction work for the entire Gulf network has been completed.
The project's cost estimates are currently undergoing review and updates in light of economic shifts, rising prices for materials and services, construction costs, and inflation, he revealed without specifying an updated total cost at the present time.
Returns beyond passenger and freight transport
Al Khalifa said that the economic impact of the project is not limited to facilitating passenger movement and freight transport, but extends to improving supply chain efficiency, boosting trade among GCC countries, and linking industrial centers, economic zones, and logistical hubs, as well as supporting employment and investment opportunities.
He added that determining the project's exact contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) or estimating expected savings in time and costs remains premature, given that returns vary depending on transport routes, the nature of the cargo, and the points of origin and destination.
In light of the challenges facing maritime navigation in the region, the minister stressed that the Gulf railway network is not intended to serve as a substitute for maritime transport. Instead, it acts as a complementary route that boosts transport options and connectivity among GCC nations, increasing the resilience of supply chains against disruptions that could affect various modes of transportation.
He noted that integration between ports, roads, railways, and airports will strengthen the flexibility of the Gulf transport system, while connecting to broader international logistical corridors remains a future possibility contingent on completing studies, understandings, and coordination with the relevant countries and entities.
King Hamad Bridge to link Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
Regarding the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Al Khalifa explained that the King Hamad Bridge project includes road lanes and railway lines, enabling the international passenger station in Bahrain to connect with the Saudi railway network and forming one of the essential components for completing the Gulf interconnection.
He added that work is underway on the privatization procedures for the King Fahd Causeway Authority, alongside completing the necessary studies and procedures to transition to the execution of the new bridge project.
Achieving the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is a fundamental requirement for operating the railway line between the two countries within the project's targeted timeframe in December 2030,e he said.
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