Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)

Steve Bruce sits in Rafael Benítez’s old chair in the center of the room where his predecessor once held court. The walls are still the same color, the furniture has not moved and the vending machine in one corner remains temperamental but, these days, the mood is very different.

Where Newcastle’s former manager entertained his audience with colorful off-the-record tales of, among other things, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Neapolitan Camorra and Marcelo Bielsa, Bruce has recently faced some awkward journalistic inquiries? “Have you been lucky?”, “Are you in a false position?” and “Is playing this way sustainable?” are just three sample questions from recent media debriefs.

Despite the loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Newcastle is a team defying gravity sitting in 14th place with 31 points.

Benítez used to delight in, repeatedly, reiterating a pet theory. “Football is one big lie,” he claimed. “In football everything is a lie.” Some Newcastle fans fear the Dalian Professional manager’s thesis extends to the Premier League table. Is the points column telling a big fat fib about their team’s capabilities and Bruce’s management? After all, judged on almost every conceivable metric – possession, touches, pass completion, goals scored, chances created, chances conceded and accurate crosses – Newcastle rank among the top tier’s bottom three teams. If anyone requires a perfect definition of “conundrum” they need only buy a ticket at St. James’ Park.

Or is this extremely harsh on Bruce who, given the limitations of inheriting a squad widely tipped as relegation certainties last summer, has done an ostensibly impressive job? His side may be low on quality, pace and creativity but sterile statistical analysis does not reflect their invariably indefatigable spirit, resilience and togetherness. Let alone the cleverness and discipline of much evidently well-coached defending.

Bruce is generally warm and affable, rarely losing his sense of humor or proportion, but the suggestion he is a lucky general represents a red line he describes as an “insult”. Yet some disappointing recent results, culminating in Saturday’s defeat and a 0-4 thumping against Arsenal a weekend earlier, have provoked fears fortune could finally be frowning and Newcastle regressing to the point where they will be “found out” and sucked into relegation waters.

“We’ve done OK,” says Bruce. “We’ve had huge injury problems but shown incredible resilience. Our results can’t be a fluke, not over 26 games, anyway. The players have resilience and pride. They’re a good set who roll up their sleeves and make sure they have a go; when you’ve got a team like that, you’ve always got a chance.”

Newcastle – seven points ahead of third-bottom West Ham – routinely command around 30% possession and have seen Martin Dubravka, their outstanding goalkeeper, make more saves than any other Premier League counterpart.

If Dubravka appears increasingly indispensable the way his teammates weather countless attacking storms also reflects Bruce’s intelligent man-management of players previously in thrall to the much respected, and trusted, Benítez. The Spaniard remains the elephant in the room, not least because he patented the safety-first, contain and counter, painting by numbers, 3-4-3 system swiftly copied by Bruce.

Following heavy early season defeats at Norwich and Leicester, the latter felt he had no option but to abandon a high-risk experiment with a back four and more aesthetically pleasing “progressive” passing.

Yet where, last season, Newcastle’s deep defending was perceived as part of a refined tactical plan, their interminable back-pedaling is now interpreted as a consequence of sheer inability to retain possession. That may be a case of invidious managerial comparisons but it is also legitimate to ask whether Bruce has taken pragmatism to the point where aspirations have dropped and players are underachieving. His advocates hint that the side’s dependence on that counterattacking default mode reflects a Benítez “brainwashing” but such semantics mask the reality that teams are only as good as their strikers.

Joelinton has lacked decent service but the £40m Brazilian center-forward – scorer of one league goal – is a definite downgrade on Salomón Rondón, his predecessor. Tellingly half Newcastle’s 24 league goals have been scored by defenders.

Considering the peculiar backdrop of Mike Ashley’s idiosyncratic ownership and frequently restrictive recruitment policies, the “beauty contest” simmering between Benítez loyalists and Bruce disciples arguably appears pointless and disrespectful.

With takeover talk receding, Bruce seems stuck with Ashley and “Rafa-ball”. Given that imperfect context, he has surely earned the right to claim the league table does not lie.

The Guardian Sport



Liverpool Comes up Short against Forest Again in Premier League as Man City’s Fallibility Returns

 Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood greets fans at the end of the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool at the City Ground stadium in Nottingham, England, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood greets fans at the end of the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool at the City Ground stadium in Nottingham, England, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
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Liverpool Comes up Short against Forest Again in Premier League as Man City’s Fallibility Returns

 Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood greets fans at the end of the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool at the City Ground stadium in Nottingham, England, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood greets fans at the end of the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool at the City Ground stadium in Nottingham, England, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)

Liverpool will be glad to see the back of Nottingham Forest.

Two games against the big surprise of the Premier League season have yielded just one point for the leaders after their 1-1 draw at Forest’s rocking City Ground on Tuesday.

Liverpool has lost only once in 20 games so far this campaign — and that was 1-0 at home to Forest in September.

Four months later, Diogo Jota scored with a header from a corner in the 66th minute — just 22 seconds after coming on as a substitute — to earn Liverpool a draw that maintained its six-point cushion over Forest, which moved into second place in its improbable bid to qualify for the Champions League. And who knows, maybe more.

Forest was on course to record an unlikely home-and-away double over Arne Slot’s team after top scorer Chris Wood scored in the eighth minute.

Liverpool piled on the pressure late on but again failed to defeat Forest, which started the season more likely to be in a relegation battle than competing for the title.

"Before the season we needed to get as quickly as possible to 40 points," Forest goalkeeper Matz Sels said, referring to the total that typically is enough to guarantee safety. "With 17 games to go, we have got 41 so we can look a little bit higher."

Forest’s fans goaded Slot at times in a febrile atmosphere at the City Ground that hasn’t been this bouncing for a generation. The good times look to be back at a club that was famously European champions in back-to-back years under managerial great Brian Clough, in 1979 and '80.

Liverpool has a game in hand over Forest so is still in a strong position to win a record-tying 20th English league title. Arsenal is in third place, a further point back, and can trim the gap to Liverpool to four points by beating Tottenham in the north London derby on Wednesday.

"If we continue bringing performances like in the second half today," Slot said, "then we will not always be that unlucky that it ends with a draw."

City's fallibility returns

Manchester City showed more late-game fallibility in squandering a two-goal lead to draw 2-2 at Brentford.

City conceded in the 82nd minute and again two minutes into stoppage time after Phil Foden scored twice for the struggling champions, who are battling to simply qualify for the Champions League this season.

Prior to winning its last two league games against Leicester and West Ham, City had won just one in nine to drop out of the Champions League qualification positions. During that poor run, City conceded two late goals to lose to Manchester United while also throwing away a three-goal lead late in a 3-3 draw against Feyenoord in the Champions League.

"We have to manage (games) a little bit better," City manager Pep Guardiola said, "but today was not bad."

Yoane Wissa and Christian Norgaard were the scorers for Brentford to leave City in sixth place.

Last-gasp equalizer for Chelsea

Chelsea salvaged a 2-2 draw at home to Bournemouth thanks to Reece James' free kick in the fifth minute of stoppage time but saw its winless run in the league extend to five games.

Cole Palmer put Chelsea ahead with a cheeky finish in the 13th minute for his 14th goal of the season, only for Bournemouth to respond as Antoine Semenyo won a penalty — converted by Justin Kluivert — and smashed home a rising finish in the 68th.

Chelsea stayed in fourth place — at least until fifth-place Newcastle plays on Wednesday.

Potter’s first win Graham Potter secured his first win as West Ham manager as his new team beat Fulham 3-2.

Carlos Soler and Tomas Soucek scored first-half goals before Lucas Paqueta grabbed the crucial third for West Ham, which brought in Potter last week as a replacement for the fired Julen Lopetegui.

Potter’s first match in charge was a defeat at Aston Villa in the FA Cup on Friday.

Alex Iwobi scored Fulham’s goals to make it 2-1 and then 3-2.

West Ham moved 10 points clear of the relegation zone with the victory.

Orient set for City in FA Cup Third-tier Leyton Orient set up a fourth-round match with Man City in the FA Cup next month by beating second-tier Derby 6-5 on penalties.