Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)

Steve Bruce sits in Rafael Benítez’s old chair in the center of the room where his predecessor once held court. The walls are still the same color, the furniture has not moved and the vending machine in one corner remains temperamental but, these days, the mood is very different.

Where Newcastle’s former manager entertained his audience with colorful off-the-record tales of, among other things, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Neapolitan Camorra and Marcelo Bielsa, Bruce has recently faced some awkward journalistic inquiries? “Have you been lucky?”, “Are you in a false position?” and “Is playing this way sustainable?” are just three sample questions from recent media debriefs.

Despite the loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Newcastle is a team defying gravity sitting in 14th place with 31 points.

Benítez used to delight in, repeatedly, reiterating a pet theory. “Football is one big lie,” he claimed. “In football everything is a lie.” Some Newcastle fans fear the Dalian Professional manager’s thesis extends to the Premier League table. Is the points column telling a big fat fib about their team’s capabilities and Bruce’s management? After all, judged on almost every conceivable metric – possession, touches, pass completion, goals scored, chances created, chances conceded and accurate crosses – Newcastle rank among the top tier’s bottom three teams. If anyone requires a perfect definition of “conundrum” they need only buy a ticket at St. James’ Park.

Or is this extremely harsh on Bruce who, given the limitations of inheriting a squad widely tipped as relegation certainties last summer, has done an ostensibly impressive job? His side may be low on quality, pace and creativity but sterile statistical analysis does not reflect their invariably indefatigable spirit, resilience and togetherness. Let alone the cleverness and discipline of much evidently well-coached defending.

Bruce is generally warm and affable, rarely losing his sense of humor or proportion, but the suggestion he is a lucky general represents a red line he describes as an “insult”. Yet some disappointing recent results, culminating in Saturday’s defeat and a 0-4 thumping against Arsenal a weekend earlier, have provoked fears fortune could finally be frowning and Newcastle regressing to the point where they will be “found out” and sucked into relegation waters.

“We’ve done OK,” says Bruce. “We’ve had huge injury problems but shown incredible resilience. Our results can’t be a fluke, not over 26 games, anyway. The players have resilience and pride. They’re a good set who roll up their sleeves and make sure they have a go; when you’ve got a team like that, you’ve always got a chance.”

Newcastle – seven points ahead of third-bottom West Ham – routinely command around 30% possession and have seen Martin Dubravka, their outstanding goalkeeper, make more saves than any other Premier League counterpart.

If Dubravka appears increasingly indispensable the way his teammates weather countless attacking storms also reflects Bruce’s intelligent man-management of players previously in thrall to the much respected, and trusted, Benítez. The Spaniard remains the elephant in the room, not least because he patented the safety-first, contain and counter, painting by numbers, 3-4-3 system swiftly copied by Bruce.

Following heavy early season defeats at Norwich and Leicester, the latter felt he had no option but to abandon a high-risk experiment with a back four and more aesthetically pleasing “progressive” passing.

Yet where, last season, Newcastle’s deep defending was perceived as part of a refined tactical plan, their interminable back-pedaling is now interpreted as a consequence of sheer inability to retain possession. That may be a case of invidious managerial comparisons but it is also legitimate to ask whether Bruce has taken pragmatism to the point where aspirations have dropped and players are underachieving. His advocates hint that the side’s dependence on that counterattacking default mode reflects a Benítez “brainwashing” but such semantics mask the reality that teams are only as good as their strikers.

Joelinton has lacked decent service but the £40m Brazilian center-forward – scorer of one league goal – is a definite downgrade on Salomón Rondón, his predecessor. Tellingly half Newcastle’s 24 league goals have been scored by defenders.

Considering the peculiar backdrop of Mike Ashley’s idiosyncratic ownership and frequently restrictive recruitment policies, the “beauty contest” simmering between Benítez loyalists and Bruce disciples arguably appears pointless and disrespectful.

With takeover talk receding, Bruce seems stuck with Ashley and “Rafa-ball”. Given that imperfect context, he has surely earned the right to claim the league table does not lie.

The Guardian Sport



Zheng Loses to No 97 Siegemund, Osaka Rallies to Advance at Australian Open

Germany's Laura Siegemund  (L) shakes hands with China's Zheng Qinwen after the women's singles match on day four of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 15, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
Germany's Laura Siegemund (L) shakes hands with China's Zheng Qinwen after the women's singles match on day four of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 15, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
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Zheng Loses to No 97 Siegemund, Osaka Rallies to Advance at Australian Open

Germany's Laura Siegemund  (L) shakes hands with China's Zheng Qinwen after the women's singles match on day four of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 15, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
Germany's Laura Siegemund (L) shakes hands with China's Zheng Qinwen after the women's singles match on day four of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 15, 2025. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)

Distracted by a time penalty and unable to counteract No. 97-ranked Laura Siegemund's aggressive approach, Zheng Qinwen's loss in the second round Wednesday fell a long way short of last year's run to the Australian Open final.
Zheng lost the 2024 decider at Melbourne Park to Aryna Sabalenka and went on to win the Olympic gold medal in Paris and finish runner-up at the WTA Finals in a breakout season.
But her first tournament of the year ended in a 7-6 (3), 6-3 loss on John Cain Arena against 36-year-old Siegemund, who attacked from the first point and put Zheng off her game.
Zheng needed a change of shoes early in the second set, got a time warning on her serve from the chair umpire — she said she couldn't clearly see the clock — and was worried about some minor issues which sidelined her before the Australian Open.
“I feel maybe today is not my day. There’s a lot of details in the important points. I didn’t do the right choice,” The Associated Press quoted Zheng as saying.
Of a weak serve that bounced before the net, Zheng said the time warning from the umpire “obviously that one really distracted me from the match.”
“This is my fourth year in the tour, and never happen that to me.”
Both of last year's women's finalists were playing at the same time on nearby courts.
Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, extended her run to 16 wins at Melbourne Park by winning the last five games to beat No. 54-ranked Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 7-5.
Naomi Osaka, another two-time Australian Open champion, reached the third round of a major for the first time since 2022 when she weathered an early barrage from US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova before rallying to win 1-6, 6-1, 6-3.
Osaka lost in the first round here last year to Caroline Garcia in her comeback from maternity leave but avenged that with a first-round victory over Garcia this week.
Osaka said she used a loss to Muchova at the US Open as motivation.
“She crushed me in the US Open when I had my best outfit ever,” Osaka joked in a post-match interview. “I was so disappointed. I was so mad. This was my little revenge.”
Osaka will next meet Belinda Bencic, the Tokyo Olympic gold medalist who is playing in her first major since the birth of her daughter, Bella, last year.
Also advancing were No. 7 Jessica Pegula, had a 6-4, 6-2 win over Elise Mertens, and 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, the No. 14 seed who beat Moyuka Uchijima 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (8).
The scoreline in Sabalenka's match didn't reflect the difficulty, with Bouzas Maneiro taking huge swipes at the ball in her Australian Open debut and dictating some of the points against the world No. 1-ranked player. Her serve let her down, with Sabalenka able to relieve some pressure on her own serve with five breaks.
No. 7 Jessica Pegula had a 6-4, 6-2 win over Elise Mertens to reach the third round, along with Belinda Bencic and 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, the No. 14 seed who beat Moyuka Uchijima 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (8).
Siegemund has never been past the third round in Australia, but is taking confidence from her big upset. Her only lapse was when she was broken serving for the first set. She recovered to dominate the tiebreaker, while Zheng remained too conservative in her tactics until right near the end.
“I knew I just had to play more than my best tennis. I had nothing to lose. I just told myself to swing free,” Siegemund said. Zheng is “an amazing player. One of the best players right now, but I know I can play well and I wanted to show that to myself.”
Third-seeded Carlos Alcaraz, aiming to add the Australian Open title to complete a set of all four major crowns, advanced 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 victory over Yoshihito Nishioka.
“The less time you spend on the court in the Grand Slams, especially at the beginning of the tournament, it’s gonna be better, especially physically,” Alcaraz said. “I just try to be focused on spending as less time as I can,” on court.