Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro

Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani. Asharq Al-Awsat
Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani. Asharq Al-Awsat
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Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro

Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani. Asharq Al-Awsat
Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani. Asharq Al-Awsat

The name of Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani had gained attention even before the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Since Soleimani’s assassination, Kawtharani had gained traction in Iraqi politics.

Washington offered a $10 million reward for information on Kawtharani, whom it says has taken over part of the role of Soleimani.

Washington charged last week that Kawtharani had “taken over some of the political coordination of Iran-aligned paramilitary groups” formerly organized by Soleimani.

When a US drone strike in January killed Soleimani and others in a small convoy outside Baghdad airport, the little-known but powerful official from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement was initially rumored to have died alongside him.

It was quickly confirmed that Kawtharani, who has long spearheaded Hezbollah’s Iraq policy, was not among those killed in the attack.

“In that role, he was like a copy of Soleimani,” a senior Iraqi official who met with Kawtharani several times told AFP.

Washington considers that Kawtharani “facilitates the activities of groups working outside the control of the Iraqi government to violently suppress demonstrators” or “attack foreign diplomatic missions”, and participates in “training, financing, and providing political-logistical support to Iraqi Shiite rebel groups.”

After the US administration’s decision to sanction Kawtharani and offer a reward for information about him, there was news in several local media outlets about the presence of Kawtharani in Baghdad, noting that he was conducting negotiations on the new government in the Green Zone, but it could not be confirmed.

Born in Iraq in the late 1950s, Kawtharani studied in the holy shrine city of Najaf and is married to an Iraqi woman with whom he has four children.

“Kawtharani was appointed to head Hezbollah’s Iraq file in 2003 and has reported directly to its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah,” said a source close to Hezbollah’s senior ranks.

Washington had first sanctioned Kawtharani as a “terrorist” in 2013 for providing training, funding, political, and logistical support to Iraqi Shiite insurgent groups.

Iraqi political expert Hisham al-Hashemi said Kawtharani wore multiple hats.

“He’s the conductor in the Shiite loyalist orchestra,” said Hashemi, referring to the collection of Iraqi Shiite parties that see Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as their main reference.



How Moscow Might Respond if Trump Stops Russian Oil to India

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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How Moscow Might Respond if Trump Stops Russian Oil to India

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

US President Donald Trump's demand on India to halt Russian oil imports could threaten billions in Russian revenues, prompt Moscow to retaliate by stopping a major US-led oil pipeline and potentially lead to a new global supply crisis.

India, the world's third largest oil importer, has become the biggest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, purchasing up to 2 million barrels per day of oil accounting for 2% of global supply. Other top buyers are China and Türkiye.

The Indian route is so important for the Kremlin that if disrupted it could prompt it to retaliate by closing the CPC pipeline from Kazakhstan, where US oil majors Chevron and Exxon hold big stakes, analysts at JP Morgan said this week.

"Russia is not without leverage," the US bank said.

Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a peace deal with Ukraine by August 7-9. A 25% tariff on all US goods imports from India starts on Friday.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Indian state refineries had paused purchases of Russian oil this week amid Trump's threats.

REALIGNMENT

India only began buying large quantities of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, since 2022. It became a top importer after Europe, Russia's former top client, imposed a ban on Russian oil over its military actions in Ukraine. Russia's oil giant Rosneft has a major stake in one of India's biggest oil refineries.

India is now 35% reliant on Russian oil imports worth $50.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, according to India's government data.

"Cutting off this flow would require a massive realignment of trade flows," said Aldo Spanjer from BNP Paribas, adding that the global supply was already stretched.

India buys all varieties and grades of Russian oil - including Urals from Western ports, ESPO and Sokol from the Pacific and some grades from the Arctic, according to LSEG data.

Urals would be hit hardest if India stops buying as it purchases up to 70% of Russia's biggest export grade by volume. India's oil minister said the country can find alternative supply.

India would need to raise imports of US and Middle Eastern crude or cut refining runs, leading to a spike in diesel prices, especially in Europe, which imports fuel from India.

"Indian refiners will still struggle to replace the heavy quality of Russian crude so they may end up paring runs," said Neil Crosby from Sparta Commodities.

FALLING INCOME

Russia has managed to continue selling oil since 2022 despite international sanctions, although it sells it at discounts to global prices.

Falling global prices mean Russia's income is already under pressure. Its oil and gas revenue fell 33.7% year-on-year in June to its lowest since January 2023, finance ministry data showed. Revenues will fall 37% in July due to weaker global oil prices and a strong rouble, Reuters calculations show.

Russian firms will need to store oil on tankers if India stops buying, paying extra money for shipping charges and being forced to offer wide discounts to new buyers, traders said.

A loss of 2 million bpd of exports might also gradually prompt Russia to start reducing oil production from the current levels of 9 million bpd, traders said. Russia's current production is regulated by OPEC+ quotas.

HOW CAN RUSSIA RESPOND?

Russia could potentially divert some 0.8 million bpd of oil to Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Brunei, South Africa and Indonesia, JP Morgan said.

Moscow could also disrupt the CPC pipeline to make sure the West feels the pain from higher oil prices. Western oil firms Exxon, Chevron, Shell, ENI and TotalEnergies ship up to 1 million bpd via CPC, which has total capacity of 1.7 million bpd.

"If we get a visible and substantial difficulty in clearing Russian crude and Putin shuts off CPC, oil prices might get well over $80 per barrel, possibly a lot more," said Crosby.

The CPC pipeline crosses Russian territory and the consortium has clashed with Moscow, which ordered it to suspend operations for several days in 2022 and 2025 citing environmental and tanker regulations.

A combined stoppage of CPC and Russian flows to India would create a disruption of 3.5 million bpd or 3.5% of global supply.

"The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices," JP Morgan said.