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No Strategic Change as Iran Begins 'Tactical' Withdrawal of its Militias in Syria

A Russian soldier on his armoured vehicle watches Syrian opposition factions during evacuation from Daraa city, on July 15, 2018. (AFP)
A Russian soldier on his armoured vehicle watches Syrian opposition factions during evacuation from Daraa city, on July 15, 2018. (AFP)
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No Strategic Change as Iran Begins 'Tactical' Withdrawal of its Militias in Syria

A Russian soldier on his armoured vehicle watches Syrian opposition factions during evacuation from Daraa city, on July 15, 2018. (AFP)
A Russian soldier on his armoured vehicle watches Syrian opposition factions during evacuation from Daraa city, on July 15, 2018. (AFP)

Iran has intensified in recent days the redeployment of its militias in various regions in Syria, including Damascus and Deir Ezzour, and even moving west towards Iraq.

Officials dismissed these moves as nothing more than "tactical", saying that they don't signify any strategic change for Iran in Syria.

A western official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the tactical withdrawal could have been prompted by several factors, such as the Iranian economic crisis and the new coronavirus pandemic. He said the tensions with the United States playing out in Iraq are another factor. He also noted the reemergence of ISIS in the west, Israel's intensification of its strikes on Syria and the easing of the fighting in some Syrian regions, as well as Russian pressure.

At the same time, some foreign Iranian militias were handing over their positions to Syrian militias that are loyal to Tehran. He compared the situation to what happened in southern Syria after the American-Russian deal that called for the withdrawal of non-Syrian forces to 80 kilometers from the Jordan border and disengagement line in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Redeployment

The Deir Ezzour 24 network reported on Monday that members of the Fatemiyoun and 313 organizations had moved from Deir Ezzour and al-Mayadeen on Saturday. The former returned to their headquarters in Palmyra, while the other group returned the Sayeda Zainab area south of Damascus.

The network said they were transported in civilian buses without their weapons. The majority of the members were Afghans and they were replaced by local forces.

Sayeda Zainab had recently witnessed tensions between Syrian forces and Iranian factions over the regime's decision to lock down the area over the coronavirus outbreak.

Iranian and Iraqi forces loyal to Damascus are deployed widely in the Deir Ezzour countryside, especially in the Alboukamal and al-Mayadeen areas. They also control the Alboukamal border crossing with Iraq.

Syria's Jisr network reported of a handover operation at Iranian checkpoints and positions in Deir Ezzour under the supervision of Russian military police. The positions were handed over to the Qaterji militias that are affiliated with the Syrian Qaterji group. They are led by Fawwaz al-Bashir, a tribal leader, and affiliates of the Quds brigade that is run by the Russian Wagner group.

The withdrawal began from Deir Ezzour and the forces headed east towards the Iraqi border. The new forces now hold 70 kilometers of territory in Deir Ezzour leading east, while the Iranian militias control 70 kms in other areas, significantly in Alboukamal.

Slain Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani had overseen the reopening of the crossing, which gives Tehran a land route from Iraq through Syria to the Mediterranean. Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad in January.

Israeli position

On May 5, Israeli officials declared that Iran had started to pull out its forces from Syria after succumbing to frequent Israeli strikes.

Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said last week: "Iran has nothing to do in Syria... (and) we won't stop before they leave Syria." He said Iran was "trying to establish itself on the border with Israel to threaten Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa".

"They have enough problems at home with the coronavirus (and) the collapsing economy," he said about Iran.

Bennett said Iran "used to be an asset for the Syrians... but now it's a burden".

He made his remarks after 14 Iranian and Iraqi fighters were killed in suspected Israeli strikes on Deir Ezzour and on military caches in Aleppo.

In April, three civilians were killed in Israeli strikes near Damascus and a week earlier, nine pro-regime forces were killed in strikes on Palmyra.

Israel had in recent years drawn "red lines" in Syria, including: barring the transfer of rockets to Hezbollah in Lebanon, preventing Iran from setting up permanent military bases and factories for the manufacture of long-range rockets, and standing against the formation of cells in the Golan. It has launched hundreds of raids, none of which were intercepted by Russian air defenses deployed in Syria.

American position

US State Department’s special representative for the Syrian war and the fight against ISIS, James Jeffrey, told Asharq Al-Awsat earlier this month that his country supports "in every possible way", diplomatically and logistically, Israeli raids on Iranian sites in Syria.

He said all foreign forces, including Iranian ones, must withdraw from Syria. Russia was the exception because it has been there before 2011 when the conflict began.

Western officials confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran was redeploying its forces in Syria.

Jeffrey said that the Iranians were indeed tactically pulling out from Syria partially because they do not need so many ground forces there. He also cited concern over the economic toll amid the US sanctions against Tehran and the massive financial burden caused the coronavirus outbreak in Iran.

He also added that the moves could just be tactical with no far-reaching significance.

American and regional officials in countries neighboring Syria have speculated that internal and external pressure may have prompted the Iranian moves, but they downplayed their significance, saying they do not amount to strategic change.

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Now Syria’s Long-Ruling Baath Party Is Collapsing, Too

This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
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Now Syria’s Long-Ruling Baath Party Is Collapsing, Too

This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

A few days after opposition factions in Syria overthrew President Bashar Assad, his ruling Baath party announced it was freezing its activities, marking a stunning change in fortunes for the political group that had ruled for more than six decades.

Many members of the party's leadership have gone into hiding and some have fled the country. In a symbolic move, Syria's new rulers have turned the former party headquarters in Damascus into a center where former members of the army and security forces line up to register their names and hand over their weapons.

Calls are on the rise to officially dissolve the Arab Socialist Baath Party that had ruled Syria since 1963.

Many Syrians - including former party members - say its rule damaged relations with other Arab countries and aided in the spread of corruption that brought the war-torn nation to its knees.

"The party should not only be dissolved, it should go to hell," said Mohammed Hussein Ali, 64, who worked for a state oil company and was a party member for decades until he quit at the start of Syria's anti-government uprising in 2011 that turned into civil war. He never left the country and said he is happy the Baath rule is over.

Men queue with firearms up as former soldiers, police members, and civilians wait at a center for handing over weapons and security registration with the new authorities in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

An official with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the group that led the opposition offensive that overthrew Assad, said no official decision has been made on what to do with the Baath party.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, noted that HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has said that officials who committed crimes against the Syrian people over the past decades will be brought to justice and hinted that they include party members.

The Baath party, whose aim was to unify Arab states in one nation, was founded by two Syrian Arab nationalists, Michel Aflaq and Salaheddine Bitar, in 1947 and at one point ruled two Arab countries, Iraq and Syria.

A rivalry developed between the Syrian branch under Assad and his late father, Hafez, and the one in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, who was ousted from power by a US-led invasion in 2003.

In Syria, the Baath party became inextricably associated with the Assad family, which took power in 1970. For decades, the family used the party and its pan-Arab ideology to control the country. Many senior military jobs were held by members of the family's minority Alawite sect, and party membership was used as a cover to give it a nationalist rather than a sectarian nature.

A former soldier and decades-long Baath party member who came to party headquarters to cut his military ties, Abdul-Rahman Ali, said he had no idea it was founded by Aflaq and Bitar. He had always thought that Hafez Assad was the founder.

"I am happy. We have been liberated from fear," said Ali, 43. "Even the walls had ears. We didn't dare express opinions with anyone." He was referring to the dreaded security and intelligence agencies that detained and tortured people who expressed criticism of Assad or government officials.

Many Syrians were required to join the Baath Vanguards, the party's youth branch, while in elementary school, where Arab nationalist and socialist ideology was emphasized.

It was difficult for people who were not party members to get government jobs or join the army or the security and intelligence services.

In 2012, a year after Syria's uprising began, a paragraph of the constitution stating that the Baath party was the leader of the nation and society was abolished, in a move aimed to appease the public's demand for political reforms. In practice, however, the party remained in control, with members holding the majority of seats in parliament and government.

Another former soldier, who gave only his first name, Ghadir, out of fear of reprisals as a member of the Alawite sect, said he came from a poor family and joined the party so he could enter the military for a stable income.

"You could not take any job if you were not a Baathist," he said.

A member of Syria's transitional government security forces sorts firearms surrendered by former soldiers, police members, and civilians at a center for handing over weapons and security registration with the new authorities in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

While few are mourning the party's fall in Syria, some are concerned that the opposition that now controls the country could carry out a purge similar to the one in Iraq after Saddam's fall.

In Syria, a Baath party statement issued three days after Assad's fall called on all members to hand their weapons and public cars to the new authorities.

On Dec. 24, party member and former army colonel Mohammed Merhi was among hundreds who lined up at the former party headquarters and handed over weapons.

Merhi said the Baath party should be given another opportunity because its principles are good but were exploited over decades. But he said he might want to join another party if Syria becomes a multiparty democracy in the future.

He handed over his Soviet Makarov pistol and received a document saying he can now move freely in the country after reconciling with the new authorities.

"I want to become again a normal Syrian citizen and work to build a new Syria," he said.