Coronavirus Crisis Punctures Tunisia Tourism Rebound

A cafe stands empty in the Tunisian village of Sidi Bou Said, where streets are usually filled with tourists at this time of year | AFP
A cafe stands empty in the Tunisian village of Sidi Bou Said, where streets are usually filled with tourists at this time of year | AFP
TT

Coronavirus Crisis Punctures Tunisia Tourism Rebound

A cafe stands empty in the Tunisian village of Sidi Bou Said, where streets are usually filled with tourists at this time of year | AFP
A cafe stands empty in the Tunisian village of Sidi Bou Said, where streets are usually filled with tourists at this time of year | AFP

As the novel coronavirus pandemic wipes out a recovery from militant attacks in 2015, Tunisia's vital tourism sector is trying to find ways to avoid going under.

"Normally, the season starts now. But there is nobody," said Mohammed Saddam, who owns an antiques shop in the famous blue and white village of Sidi Bou Said, near the capital Tunis.

Usually its streets are filled with tourists at this time of year, but now Saddam is only opening his store for an hour a day to air it out.

"We are waiting for the airspace to reopen," he said. "But 2020 is a write-off."

The North African country has registered 45 deaths from the COVID-19 illness, and for several days this week saw no new infections, putting it among Mediterranean countries faring relatively well in the pandemic.

But the crisis has led to a shortfall in tourism revenues of six billion dinars (over $2 billion), the country's national tourism office has estimated, and some 400,000 jobs are at risk.

The sector had been bouncing back to levels not seen since before the 2011 revolution that toppled longtime autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali

"Tunisia had started off the year well, with an increase in (tourism) revenue of 28 percent," said Feriel Gadhoumi, a coordinator at the tourism office.

But that all came to a halt in March as countries imposed travel restrictions and border closures to curb the spread of the pandemic.

Now, seaside resorts are empty and hoteliers are trying to salvage what they can of the season, counting on the country's relatively optimistic health situation and sector-specific virus prevention measures.

- Steps to 'regain trust' -

While most hotels have shut for now, some are providing accommodation for people in compulsory quarantine, notably Tunisians repatriated from abroad.

The tourism ministry is preparing protocols for facilities that reopen, with some planning to do so from June.

Measures are expected to include temperature checks at hotel entrances, rooms being disinfected and left empty for 48 hours between guests and the intensive cleaning of common areas.

Such steps are necessary to "regain the trust of partners", Gadhoumi from the tourism office said.

The UN World Tourism Organization has warned that international tourist numbers could drop by 60 to 80 percent in 2020.

The sector accounts for around 14 percent of Tunisia's GDP, according to the tourism ministry.

Other changes could include offering fixed menus instead of buffets and giving guests the same tables and umbrellas for the length of their stay, hotel sales manager Anis Souissi said.

Clients will focus "on health and hygiene", he added.

But it is unclear whether hotels, some of which are already on the edge of bankruptcy, will be able to make the necessary investments.

Even before the pandemic struck, a series of crises had weakened Tunisia's tourism sector.

After the political instability that followed the fall of Ben Ali, jihadist attacks in 2015 targeted European holiday-makers at the Bardo museum in Tunis and the coastal tourist resort of Sousse.

The attacks killed 60 people, many of them British tourists, and dealt a heavy blow to the sector.

- Limited options -

The security situation has greatly improved since then, and tourist numbers last year had returned to pre-2011 levels, with 9.5 million visitors.

But the collapse in September of British tour operator Thomas Cook, which brought five percent of Tunisia's European tourists, shook some hotels.

Thomas Cook had suspended trips to Tunisia after the attacks, but had returned in force in the last two years.

Now, the sector is searching for ways to survive, as the coronavirus crisis persists and as passenger flights from Europe, Tunisia's main market, are expected to remain grounded for much of the summer.

Although thousands of foreigners remain stuck in the country due to border closures and flight suspensions, their presence won't be nearly enough.

Instead, hoteliers have their eyes set on local tourists, as well as Algerian or Russian holiday-makers who helped dampen the previous crises.

But domestic tourism accounts for just 20 percent of Tunisia's market, and many locals have seen their income and holiday allowances disappear during the lockdown.

Bringing more bad news, Algeria has been seriously affected by the pandemic and reopening its borders is not envisaged in the short term, while Russia currently has the second-highest number of reported infections in the world.

"Targeting the local market and preparing for the next season are the only choices we have," sales manager Souissi said.



Aramco Sees ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ for Oil Markets if Hormuz Strait Remains Blocked

President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Aramco Sees ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ for Oil Markets if Hormuz Strait Remains Blocked

President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's Aramco , the world's top oil exporter, said on Tuesday there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil shipments have been largely blocked from using the shipping artery, where normally roughly 20% of the world's oil would pass through daily. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow "one liter of oil" to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue.

"There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets and the longer the disruption goes on ... the more drastic the consequences for the global economy," Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters on an earnings call.

"While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."

WIDE RANGE OF SECTORS MAY BE HIT

The crisis has not only ‌upended the shipping ‌and insurance sectors, but it also promises to have drastic domino effects on aviation, agriculture, automotive ‌and ⁠other industries, he added.

Global ⁠crude benchmark Brent, which rocketed to a more than three-year high of nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, was trading around $92 on Tuesday following comments by US President Donald Trump predicting the war could end soon.

Trump, however, warned that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.

He has also said the US Navy could escort ships in the Gulf to guarantee safe passage. But the Navy's capacity to do that is unclear, with some vessels already engaged in strikes against Iran and shooting down its missiles.

Asked about US Navy escorts and whether they were possible on the scale required, Nasser said there are sizable volumes involved, ⁠adding that Aramco's customers assume the risk of delivery.

"Of course, we would support any actions ‌or measures that would help to deliver our products to our customers, to ‌the global market," he said.

NO EXPORTS FROM THE GULF

Nasser noted global inventories of oil ‌were at a five-year low and said the crisis will lead to drawdowns at a faster rate, adding that it was critical that shipping in the strait resumed.

"Unfortunately, for global markets, most of the spare capacity is in this region," Nasser told analysts on a call, noting that incremental demand throughout the year will keep the market tightly balanced.

At present, Aramco is not exporting oil from the Gulf as ships cannot load ‌cargoes there. But the company, which does not disclose its exact crude output, is meeting the majority of its customers' needs, he said, partly by tapping into global inventories.

"Now, that ⁠cannot be used - that inventory - ⁠for an extended period of time, but for the time being, we are capitalizing on it," he said.

The East-West pipeline is, meanwhile, being used to transport mostly Arab Light and some Arab Extra Light crude grades to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline, which has more than doubled its initial capacity, is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day in the next couple of days as customers re-route, Nasser said.

"Even with our ability to export through the western region, you're talking about close to 350 million barrels of disruptions that will come off the market," he said.

In addition to the pipeline, Aramco is also able to direct crude towards domestic demand, he noted. Close to 2 million bpd of the pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity is going to western domestic refineries, which are net exporters of products, Nasser added.

A small fire from an attack last week on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, its largest domestically, was quickly extinguished and brought under control, Nasser said, adding that the refinery was in the process of being restarted.


Saudi Economy Records Strongest Growth in Two Years in 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
TT

Saudi Economy Records Strongest Growth in Two Years in 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 

Saudi Arabia’s economy posted its strongest growth in two years in 2025, expanding by 4.5 percent, supported by gains across all major economic sectors and a robust performance in the final quarter of the year.

According to estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, driven by growth in oil and non-oil and government activities.

Oil-related activities rose 5.7 percent, while non-oil sectors expanded by 4.9 percent. Government activities recorded more modest growth of 0.9 percent.

Data showed that non-oil sectors were the main contributor to overall GDP growth in 2025, adding 2.8 percentage points to the annual expansion. Oil activities contributed 1.4 percentage points, while government activities and net taxes on products added 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

Sector performance

All major economic sectors recorded positive growth during the year.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels led sectoral growth, expanding 6.2 percent. Financial, insurance and business services followed with 6.1 percent, while electricity, gas and water activities grew 6 percent.

Crude oil and natural gas activities increased 5.8 percent, and oil refining rose 5.7 percent.

Spending components

On the expenditure side, private final consumption grew 3.5 percent in 2025. However, government final consumption spending declined 3.5 percent, while gross fixed capital formation fell 1.7 percent.

In external trade, exports of goods and services rose 8.9 percent, while imports increased 4.7 percent during the year. According to the data, Saudi Arabia’s GDP at current prices reached 4.789 trillion riyals in 2025.

Crude oil and natural gas activities accounted for the largest share of economic output at 17.1 percent, followed by government activities at 14 percent and wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels at 12.3 percent.

Manufacturing industries (excluding oil refining) contributed 11.1 percent to GDP, followed by construction at 8 percent, and financial, insurance and business services at 7 percent.

Fourth-quarter performance

Quarterly data showed that real GDP grew 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 1.4 percent compared with the third quarter of 2025.

During the fourth quarter, oil activities grew 10.8 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter. Non-oil activities expanded 4.3 percent annually and 1.7 percent quarterly. Government activities, however, declined 1.2 percent year-on-year and 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Crude oil and natural gas activities recorded the highest annual growth in the fourth quarter at 12.4 percent, followed by wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels with 5.4 percent growth.

On the expenditure side in the fourth quarter, private final consumption rose 3.6 percent year-on-year, while gross fixed capital formation declined 3.1 percent annually, though it increased 1.8 percent compared with the previous quarter.

Government final consumption spending fell 8.5 percent year-on-year and 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, exports rose 12.8 percent annually, while imports increased 1 percent year-on-year and 2.4 percent compared with the third quarter.


Aramco Bolsters Global Oil Market Stability Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Aramco Bolsters Global Oil Market Stability Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)

Amid growing logistical challenges facing the energy sector, operational moves by Saudi Aramco are emerging as a stabilizing factor in global oil supply. The company has offered additional crude shipments on the spot market, a step analysts see as aimed at absorbing supply shocks and ensuring the continued flow of oil through key energy corridors.

The move aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-standing role as a leading global producer and is intended to limit price volatility and maintain balance between supply and demand at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Reuters reported that Aramco has offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude through rare spot tenders, as tensions between the United States and Iran disrupt Middle Eastern exports.

Mohammad Al-Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi energy minister, said the current surge in oil prices does not necessarily reflect an immediate shortage of supply. Instead, it is largely driven by what energy markets call a “geopolitical risk premium.”

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Sabban said prices remaining above $100 per barrel reflect global anxiety that the conflict could expand and threaten future supply security.

He noted that higher prices, while boosting short-term revenues and fiscal surpluses for oil-exporting countries, also bring hidden costs. These include increased spending on security measures to protect oil infrastructure — costs that rise in a volatile regional environment where Gulf states face mounting security pressures.

Al-Sabban also pointed out that spot market sales are currently generating greater returns than long-term futures contracts. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has led buyers to pay premiums for immediate deliveries, making spot transactions more attractive during the current crisis.

Strategic chokepoint

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, remains central to the crisis.

Al-Sabban warned that even a temporary closure of the waterway would inevitably reduce available supplies, potentially triggering panic in markets and forcing countries to draw from strategic reserves.

He recalled historical precedents, noting that during the Iran-Iraq war, energy markets became a hub for speculation, with negative economic consequences emerging later.

Asked whether the conflict represents a short-term economic opportunity or a broader risk for regional economies, Al-Sabban said the reality is a mix of both. High prices may offer temporary gains as long as oil remains above $100 a barrel, but a prolonged conflict could ultimately impose heavier economic burdens through rising logistical and security costs.

Flexible response

Financial and economic adviser Hussein Al-Attas said Aramco’s decision to release additional cargoes on the spot market reflects significant flexibility in managing supply and responding quickly to market shifts amid rising demand and concerns about potential shortages.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move sends an important signal to global markets that Saudi Arabia continues to play the role of a swing producer, capable of intervening to maintain market balance and ease fears about supply security.

Al-Attas added that the recent surge in oil prices is largely tied to geopolitical tensions in a region that represents the heart of global energy supply.

While Brent crude could remain above $100 in the short term if supply concerns persist, he noted that history shows price spikes driven by political tensions are often temporary unless they lead to a prolonged disruption in supply.

Higher oil prices naturally increase revenues for exporting countries, potentially strengthening fiscal balances and enabling governments to finance spending and development projects, Al-Attas remarked.

Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may therefore benefit financially in the short term.

However, he cautioned that such gains are usually temporary rather than structural. Prolonged high energy prices can slow global economic growth by fueling inflation, which may eventually reduce demand for oil. As a result, the current price surge may represent a temporary financial opportunity rather than a lasting shift in oil revenues.

Ultimately, Al-Attas said the crisis carries two opposing dynamics: Gulf countries may benefit financially in the short term, but any wider regional conflict could pose greater risks to economic and commercial stability.

For that reason, he added, the region’s strategic interest ultimately lies in stable energy markets and uninterrupted oil flows, which are essential for sustaining global demand and supporting long-term economic growth.