Qatar Offers Turkey $10Bn to Curb Lira’s Collapse

Qatar Offers Turkey $10Bn to Curb Lira’s Collapse
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Qatar Offers Turkey $10Bn to Curb Lira’s Collapse

Qatar Offers Turkey $10Bn to Curb Lira’s Collapse

Turkey’s Central Bank has received $10 billion from a currency swap agreement it secured with Qatar on Wednesday, according to the bank’s analytical balance sheet on Friday.

The bank announced on Wednesday it struck a deal to increase its currency-swap agreement with Qatar to $15 billion from five billion dollars, providing some much-needed foreign funding to reinforce its depleted reserves and shore up the Turkish lira.

Ankara had urgently appealed to Qatar and China about expanding existing swap lines, and to the United Kingdom and Japan about possibly establishing them.

As Turkey ran down its hard currency buffers this year, it lobbied Group of 20 nations to be included in swap lines like those the US has extended to other emerging economies.

The government has been on ongoing negotiations with G20 nations since April 10, without reaching any solution.

So far unable to reach arrangements with the central banks of G-20 nations, Turkey resorted to Qatar.

The agreement between both countries was concluded in 2018, when the lira lost 40 percent of its value.

Analysts attributed the swap negotiation crisis between the Turkish central bank and other central banks to the Turkish central bank’s lack of independence.

The US Federal Reserve has refused to negotiate with the Turkish Central Bank due to Erdogan's continued interference in the bank's policies.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Thomas Barkin earlier stated that the Federal Reserve had swapped lines with countries that have a relationship of “mutual trust” with the United States and the highest credit standards.

It has opened the taps for central banks in 14 countries to access dollars. These are Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and New Zealand, Canada, England, Japan, Switzerland, and the European Central Bank.

In this context, Turkey’s Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) has announced it would exempt Euroclear Bank and Clearstream Banking from recently-imposed limits on lenders’ lira transactions with foreign financial institutions.

This step is aimed at protecting the clearing of lira-denominated bonds and Sukuk and ensuring Turkish lira securities are traded efficiently, the BDDK noted.

The country’s 12-month foreign debt obligations are $168 billion, with about half due by August, while disappearing tourism income has inflated its monthly current account deficit to nearly $5 billion.

Last week, the Central Bank lowered its one-week repo rate by 50 base points, in line with market expectation.

A statement said the bank's Monetary Policy Committee had decided to reduce the policy from 8.75 percent to 8.25 percent.

Since the beginning of this year, the bank has cut the rate by a total of 375 basis points.

In 2019, the bank reduced the rate gradually by 1,200 basis points to 12 percent from 24 percent.



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.