OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
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OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

The world faces an oil surplus in 2020 even as demand gradually recovers and record supply cuts by producers help rebalance the market, according to OPEC forecasts on Wednesday.

The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries potentially increases pressure on the group and its allies, known as OPEC+, to curb more supply.

OPEC said demand would decline by 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2020, less than the drop of 11.9 million bpd in the first six months of the year, with a "gradual recovery" seen until the end of the year.

Oil prices have collapsed as lockdowns to limit the spread of the coronavirus have curtailed travel and economic activity. While some places in Europe and Asia have eased restrictions, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices.

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC+ - which includes Russia - agreed to a record supply cut that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less.

OPEC said these curbs were already helping.

"The oil market was strongly supported by a reduction of the global crude oil surplus, thanks mainly to the historic voluntary production adjustment agreement," Reuters quoted it as saying.

Despite the cuts made already, OPEC still pointed to a surplus in the market this year, in part because it now expects supply from outside the group to be about 300,000 bpd higher than previously thought.

A technical committee of OPEC+ and a ministerial panel met Wednesday and are expected to hold talks Thursday to review the supply cut's impact and seek better compliance from those yet to deliver their share in full, such as Iraq and Nigeria.

Brent crude was trading above $40 a barrel after the report's release and is up from a 21-year low below $16 reached in April.

In the report, OPEC did not further reduce its forecast for world oil demand in 2020, after steep cuts in earlier months. Still, downside risks remain for consumption in top consumer the United States, according to the group.

The supply pact agreed in April involves OPEC+ cutting output by 9.7 million bpd in May and June. OPEC+ agreed on June 6 to extend the cut for another month, a decision OPEC said the market had taken well.

In its report, OPEC said it had cut supply in May by 6.3 million bpd to 24.2 million bpd. That amounts to 84% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – higher than some estimates.

Overall OPEC+ compliance stood at 87% in May, a source said on Wednesday.

OPEC estimated the demand for its crude this year at 23.6 million bpd, down 700,000 bpd from last month, suggesting it needs to cut about 600,000 bpd from May's rate to avoid a surplus.



Gold Poised for Biggest Weekly Fall in over Five Months on Dollar Strength

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
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Gold Poised for Biggest Weekly Fall in over Five Months on Dollar Strength

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo

Gold prices dropped on Friday, poised for their steepest weekly decline in over five months, pressured by a stronger dollar and as markets absorbed the implications of Donald Trump's victory and its potential impact on US interest rate expectations.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,690.62 per ounce as of 9:50 a.m. ET (1450 GMT), and was down 1.6% for the week.

US gold futures shed 0.3% to $2,697.90.

The dollar index gained 0.3%, on track for a weekly gain, Reuters reported

"In the last month, the story has been the uncertainty risk of the election and if there was going to be normalisation of transition, but this election appeared to be very decisive on the White House," said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

"A lot of risk-on assets started benefiting in terms of the potential future implication of policies, so we had money go out of metals into these alternatives."

The Federal Reserve on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but indicated a cautious approach to further cuts.

Trump's victory has fuelled questions about whether the Fed may proceed to cut rates at a slower and smaller pace, given the former president's tariff policy.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "near-term" impact on monetary policy.

The prospect of rate cuts, starting with the half basis point reduction in September, has underpinned gold's record rally this year.

Although bullion is reputed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce non-yielding gold's appeal.

"Should markets restore the odds for a pre-Christmas Fed rate cut...that should help keep spot gold above the psychological $2700 level," Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan said.

On the physical front, gold demand in India faltered, while Japan and Singapore saw some buying.

Spot silver fell 1.3% to $31.58 per ounce, platinum fell 1.8% to $979.15, palladium shed 2.3% to $1,001.25. All three metals were heading for weekly declines.